UFC Fight Night 251 Odds and Predictions

Another fun UFC event is on its way, with UFC Fight Night 251 odds already popping up at top MMA sportsbooks online.

Last week’s UFC 312 picks were en fuego, as I nailed the main card event, as well as a number of other picks. I went 2-2-1 on the main card and 6-4-1 overall. Anytime you can wrap an MMA betting slate up with a winning mark, you take it.

The good news is my MMA picks have been rock solid for some time now, and I’ll look to keep the positive vibes going this weekend. Not sure how to bet on UFC Fight Night 251? Let’s look at every match, the latest odds, and make our UFC picks for this weekend’s event.

UFC Fight Night 251 Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night 251 odds, according to the top sports betting sites. 

This is a nicely priced main card, as Youssef Zalal is by far the biggest favorite. Don’t get me wrong, -390 is a hefty line for any fighter, but nobody else hits even -300 to close out the night.

There should be a decent amount of value to tap into by the looks of the latest UFC FN 251 odds, and it’ll all come down to making the correct bets.

You can roll with all of my UFC Fight Night 251 betting picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial to get a little extra help with his card, among other sports betting events.

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UFC Fight Night 251 Main Card Predictions

The UFC FN 251 main card fires off at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Gregor Rodrigues (-210) vs. Jared Cannonier (+180)

The main event pits Gregor Rodrigues (16-5) against KO machine Jared Cannonier (17-8). The problem? Rodrigues is eight years younger than his explosive opponent, and happens to be the more technically skilled mixed martial artist.

Rodrigues is a nasty fighter in his own right, sporting 10 career KOs, but also having the ability to make opponents tap out. His style has given way to three knockout defeats, but he hasn’t been stopped lately, winning each of his last three fights and five of his last six.

A KO loss to Brunno Ferreira is the exact reason why facing someone like Cannonier could be risky, though. He also loses 2.5 inches in reach to Cannonier, but it’s worth noting all of Cannonier’s power and explosiveness haven’t translated to much lately.

He could always get that one good punch, so he remains live for the upset. However, he’s just 2-3 over his last five bouts, and hasn’t finished anyone since 2022.

Bet: Gregor Rodrigues (-210)

Youssef Zalal (-390) vs. Calvin Kattar (+325)

Calvin Kattar (23-8) is a former UFC star and a seasoned MMA pro, but he’s getting a bit long in the tooth at age 36. He’s highly skilled and durable, but he simply hasn’t been getting it done lately.

Three straight losses and a 1-4 record over his last five paint a nasty picture, while Kattar’s finishing ability has evaporated. His last win by stoppage came in 2020, and he’s facing a skilled submission guru in Youssef Zalal (16-5-1) that has never lost a fight early.

Submitting Zalal seems to be out of the question, and he comes in red hot with six consecutive wins behind him. He’s on a submission spree, too, so Kattar could be in considerable trouble here.

I think Zalal is the easy pick, but the problem is his -390 odds. I’d still hammer that, but a bet on him to score a submission might be a more appealing wager to target.

Bet: Youssef Zalal (-390)

Edmen Shahbazyan (-360) vs. Dylan Budka (+295)

A terrific fighter hopes to get back on track at UFC FN 251, as Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5) has slipped of late, dropping five of his seven fights. 

He hasn’t looked amazing in the process, but he’s at least been taken out by big names such as Gerald Meerschaert, Anthony Hernandez, Nassourdine Imavov, Jack Hermansson, and Derek Brunson.

This free fall comes after an impressive 11-0 start to his career, so it’s fair to think the 27-year old can bounce back. He’s still an explosive and talented fighter who has 11 KO wins to his name. Dylan Budka serves as a get-right opportunity, too, as Budka has failed to impress thus far under the UFC banner.

Budka (7-4) has yet to display the same type of explosiveness Shahbazyan has, and he’s 0-2 so far in the UFC. Budka could always keep Edmen’s free fall going, but my money is on the more talented fighter who can end this fight early.

Bet: Edmen Shahbazyan (-360)

Ismael Bonfim (-180) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (+160)

Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-1) will hope to avoid just his second career loss when he prepares to battle Ismael Bonfim (20-4). Sadykhov has looked good so far in the UFC, going 2-0-1 with two wins by stoppage and a respectable Drew versus Viacheslav Borschchev. 

Sadykhov loses a couple of inches in reach and has inferior striking numbers by comparison, but is still a skilled striker with some nice takedown ability. He’s the underdog here because Bonfim has far more experience and is just as explosive, if not more so.

So far in his career, Bonfim’s only real weakness is on the canvas. He is actually pretty skilled there, but all four of his losses have come via submission. Nazim has been good with his takedowns and has two career submission wins, but I don’t know if he has enough of an advantage to get the upper hand in this one.

Bet: Ismael Bonfim (-180)

Rodolfo Vieira (-215) vs. Andre Petroski (+185)

We have two fighters exiting their prime here, as the 35-year old Vieira (10-2) is favored to take down Petroski (12-4). 

There is no height, size, or reach edge here, as these fighters grade out very evenly, while they’re also similar in terms of data when it comes to striking and takedown offense.

Vieira is certainly the more dangerous fighter on the mat, as he has nine career submissions and has been submitted just once. That is the clear path for his success, as he has just one KO win and none of his fights have gone the distance.

Petroski is far more balanced, but he has been vulnerable to knockouts (3 KO losses) and four of his fights have failed to end early. He’s also never been submitted, and he’s the younger fighter in this battle.

While I respect Rodolfo’s floor game, he really only has one path to victory here. I don’t hate the value with Petroski to get the upset.

Bet: Andre Petroski (+185)

Jose Delgado (-275) vs. Connor Matthews (+235)

The last fight for the UFC Fight Night 251 main card has Jose Delgado (8-1) and Connor Matthews (7-2) squaring off. Matthews has six years on his opponent, but loses two inches in reach and another three in height.

That could be problematic, seeing as Matthews grades out as the better striker with 6.23 significant strikes landed per minute. Delgado is also the far better takedown artist by the numbers and he’s displayed elite finishing ability, as well as terrific versatility.

Delgado is a rising prospect that has yet to allow any of his wins go the distance. He takes control early and tends to finish the job before the final bell sounds off. I like his chances to do that again this weekend as he looks to impress in his UFC debut.

Bet: Jose Delgado (-275)

UFC Fight Night 251 Preliminary Card Predictions

Catch the UFC Fight Night 251 preliminary fights at 3:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Angela Hill (-116) vs. Ketlen Souza (-104)

Angela Hill (17-14) is a big name in women’s MMA, as she’s been around since 2014 and has been in just about every fight she’s ever taken on. Need more evidence? She has never been knocked out in 31 bouts, and she’s only been submitted twice.

Hill is highly skilled and tough as nails. However, she is now 40 years old, so going forward, all bets are off. She’s been in solid form as of late, of course, winning four of her last six matches. 

Hill also has a mild reach advantage and offers comparable striking stats and takedown numbers as she faces off with the 30-year old Ketlen Souza. While Hill has gobs of experience and is tough to finish, Souza is skilled enough to get it done.

Souza (15-4) is a rising fighter that has good striking and KO ability (8 knockouts). She’s in terrific form after submitting Yazmin Jauregui in her last match, and she has just one defeat since 2021.

Hill is always going to stay in the fight, but Souza is younger and has more paths to success here. Embrace the upside with Souza.

Bet: Ketlen Souza (-104)

Rafael Estevam (-360) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+295)

Two fighters in their prime wage war in the Prelims, with Rafael Estevam (12-0) hoping to stay perfect when he takes on Jesus Aguilar (11-2).

Estevam is heavily favored, as he has a massive 7-inch reach edge and will also tower over his opponent. He grades out as the better striker and takedown artist, too, and so far he’s been a pretty unpredictable finisher.

The one thing bettors could use against Estevam is the fact that he’s had just one UFC fight and it went the distance. He was able to outlast Charles Johnson, though, so I like his chances to do the same with Aguilar.

Aguilar’s best path to success is via submission on the mat, but I don’t think he’ll necessarily have the upper hand here. Estevam gives you more paths to victory and with the huge reach edge, he should be able to dictate how this fight goes.

Bet: Rafael Estevam (-360) 

Gabriel Bonfim (-210) vs. Khaos Williams (+180)

There’s another Bonfim on this card, as Gabriel (16-1) hopes to stay hot when he takes on Khaos Williams (15-3). This one has fight of the night potential, as these guys do not lose often and both bring elite striking to the table.

Bonfim’s best path to a win is on the mat, of course, as he has an insane 12 submission wins. He has been KO’d once, while just one fight he’s been in has gone the distance. Ipso facto, it stands to reason that he’s either submitting Khaos, or he’s at risk of getting knocked out.

He’s been very good in the UFC thus far, as he’s gone 3-1 in the process and only his most recent bout with Ange Loose failed to end early. This one could fail to cross the finish line, too, as Khaos Williams has 8 wins by knockout and reminded us of his ferocity by punching the lights out of Carlston Harris last May.

By the way, Williams has never been finished in his career. The 30-year old is a terrific defender and as tough as they come. Bonfim is more skilled, but I’ve been targeting favorites a lot on this card. Let’s shoot for a little upside and hope for some chaos.

Bet: Khaos Williams (+180)

Elijah Smith (-225) vs. Vince Morales (+190)

I might opt to play it safe in this one, where Elijah Smith (7-1) hopes to avoid his second career loss. He is far younger than Vince Morales (16-8), and will offer a one-inch reach edge.

Smith also profiles as the far better striker by the numbers, and he’s also an elite takedown artist. None of this sets up well for the 34-year old Morales, although Vandetta has been good lately (5-1 over his last six fights).

Morales wasn’t amazing in his UFC debut, of course, but he did go the distance with Taylor Lapilus in a loss. Morales has also been a very versatile fighter throughout his career, exhibiting the ability to end things early on the mat or with his fists.

While true, Smith has been in terrific form and will look to make a big impression in his UFC debut. I smell a KO coming.

Bet: Elijah Smith (-225)

Valter Walker (-210) vs. Don’tale Mayes (+180)

Valter Walker (12-1) will be favored in his battle with Don’tale Mayes (11-7), even though he’s losing almost three inches in reach. That might not be ideal, seeing as Mayes also grades out as the better striker.

That said, Walker has been far more dominant, and he’s looked solid in two UFC fights. He battled Lukasz Brsezki to a Decision loss in his debut, but bounced back nicely with a submission win against Junior Tafa last August.

Walker should be able to close the gap here, as he was undefeated prior to entering the UFC, and he shook off the rust in his second match. Mayes can be a dangerous fighter, but he’s all over the map lately (2-3-1) and is six years older at 33.

This feels like a stepping stone match for Walker to build his confidence. He has his flaws, but this isn’t the spot I feel comfortable betting against him.

Bet: Valter Walker (-210) 

Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-500) vs. Julia Avila (+375)

Lastly, we have the only other female MMA match on the UFC Fight Night 251 card, where Jacqueline Cavalcanti (8-1) is a massive betting favorite. She has the best odds of the entire slate, and she’ll be taking on Julia (9-3), with a clear edge in youth, reach (2 inches), and striking.

Cavalcanti has allowed five fights to go the distance so far in her career, while also making her way to three KOs. Her only loss was via Decision, and that happened back in 2022. She’s been on a tear ever since, winning six straight fights and getting off to a nice 3-0 start in the UFC.

That’s included solid wins over Nora Cornolle, Josiana Nunes, and Zarah Fairn, so she’s already faced and gotten past some respectable talents. Avila is another step up, but she’s past her prime and has gone just 1-2 over her last three fights.

Avila is dealing with a lengthy layoff, too, as the last time she fought was in 2023 when she got submitted by Miesha Tate. Cavalcanti is going to be too much for her, as she’s impossible to finish and is getting better every time out. The odds stink, but she’s the safest pick of the night.

Bet: Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-500)

UFC Fight Night 251 Fight Card