UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs Spivac 2 Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, August 10, the UFC returns to their Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC on ESPN 61: Tybura vs. Spivac 2. Also known as UFC Vegas 95 and UFC on ESPN 61, this event features a Top 10 heavyweight rematch as #9 Serghei Spivac takes on #8 Marcin Tybura.

In addition to the main event, there are two other bouts with ranked fighters facing each other. Both of those contests are in the women’s bantamweight division. The first is a prelim contest between #8 Karol Rosa and #11 Pannie Kianzad. The second bout is on the Main Card as #12 Yana Santos battles #14 Chelsea Chandler.

In total, there are 10 fights scheduled for this event. However, as of this writing, there’s buzz of this card seeing a last-minute shuffling. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our UFC on ESPN 61 predictions.  

UFC on ESPN 61 Odds 

The following odds are for the UFC on ESPN 61 Main Card only:

UFC on ESPN 61 Main Card Predictions  

The following UFC on ESPN 61 predictions are for the Main Card, which begins at 7pm ET live on ESPN+ PPV. All fighter stats are courtesy of Sherdog, while all fighter measurements are courtesy of UFC’s official site:   

Alan Nascimento (-190) vs. Jafel Filho (+165)

As of this writing, Alan Nascimento (20-6) vs. Jafel Filho (16-3) is set to continue. However, there are rumors that this flyweight fight is possibly being scrapped.

Nascimento is 2-1 in his last three fights, which were all in the UFC. He last competed in January 2023, where he won via 1^st round submission over Carlos Hernandez. His loss over that span was a split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov in October 2021.

Like his opponent, Filho is also 2-1 in this last three fights. He last competed in March 2024, where he beat Ode Osbourne via submission. His win over Daniel Barez was also via 1^st round submission in July 2023. Seven of his last eight wins have come via stoppage.

Both fighters like to grapple, but I believe Nascimento’s ground game is better than Filho’s. Look for “Puro Osso” to pick up the 15^th submission win of his career, while handing Filho his third career submission loss.

Bet: Alan Nascimento (-190)

Yana Santos (-135) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+115)

This main card fight is a battle of Top 15 bantamweights as the #12 Yana Santos (14-8, 1 NC) takes on the #14 Chelsea Chandler (6-2).

Chandler came over from Invicta FC where she had a decent amount of success. Inside the octagon, she’s gone 2-1 with wins over Julija Stoliarenko and Josiane Nunes. Sandwiched between those victories, was a decision loss to Norma Dumont. Her most recent fight was in March, where she beat Nunes via decision.

Santos was once a legit contender in this division, but it’s hard to consider her at that level anymore. She’s dropped four of her last six bouts including three in a row. Those three losses were to Irene Aldana, Holly Holm and Karol Rosa. The Rosa fight was her last bout and it came 13 months ago.

Santos’ striking can give Chandler troubles. And, though I’m not confident in either fighter, I think the striking accuracy and volume of Santos will be the difference. Look for this bout to go the distance (-300).

Nine of Santos’ 22 pro fights have gone the distance including four of the last five. Chandler has never been stopped before and five of her eight pro bouts have gone the distance. Certainly, Chandler has a chance in this matchup especially if she can make it a phonebooth fight or push Santos up against the fence. With that said, I give the slight edge to Santos in this matchup.

Bet: Yana Santos (-135), Over 2.5 Rounds (-325), Fight Goes The Distance (-300)

Damon Jackson (+180) vs. Chepe Mariscal (-210)

This featherweight bout will see Damon Jackson (23-6-1, 1 NC) take on Chepe Mariscal (16-6, 1 NC). It’s unclear where it will slot in on the main card with fights being removed or rumored to be cancelled.

Jackson is 6-3 inside the octagon, but has dropped two of his last three bouts. He last competed in April, and won via split decision over Alexander Hernandez. Prior to that, he dropped bouts against Billy Quarantillo and Dan Ige.

Mariscal is riding a six-fight wining streak with three of those wins coming in the UFC. He made his octagon debut in June 2023 and beat Trevor Pee via decision. He followed that up with a TKO over Jack Jenkins and a split decision win over Morgan Charriere in April.

Mariscal’s performance against Charriere is the reason why I like him in this matchup. It’s probably also why the oddsmakers view him as such a large favorite. Mariscal is primarily a striker, while Jackson is primarily a grappler. Mariscal has never tapped out, but Jackson has suffered four losses via TKO/KO.

I see Mariscal picking up the TKO/KO win, which would be the 8^th of his career. He has the striking power, accuracy and acumen to stop Jackson. Take this fight to end inside the distance (-130) and Under 2.5 rounds (-105).

Bet: Chepe Mariscal (-210), Under 2.5 Rounds (-105), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-130)

Marcin Tybura (+120) vs. Serghei Spivac (-140)

In the main event of the night, Top 10 heavyweights Marcin Tybura (25-8) and Serghei Spivac (16-4) face off of the second time in their careers.

These two men first fought in February 2020, and Tybura won via decision. Since then, Spivac has gone 6-2. His only losses were to Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. Unfortunately, both were via TKO. Some of those wins were against notable fighters like Greg Hardy, August Sakai, and Derrick Lewis.

Tybura has gone 7-2 since his win over Spivac. Those two losses were against Alexander Volkov via decision and Tom Aspinall via 1^st round TKO. He also beat notable fighters like Alexander Romanov, Blagoy Ivanov and Walt Harris.

Combined, these two fighters have only gone to the 5^th round on one occasion. They’ve also combined to go the distance in 15 of 53 total fights. I don’t see this main event bout going the full five rounds. I expect the grueling battle over the first three rounds will eventually give way to someone scoring a TKO in the 4^th round; possibly the early 5^th round.

With that said, I don’t see a reason to think that this bout won’t end up in Tybura’s favor. Neither man has evolved from their first fight. Additionally, Spivac is not the kind of fighter that can take advantage of Tybura’s weaknesses. I like for “Tybur” to wear down “The Polar Bear” until he finds the finish via TKO/KO.

Bet: Marcin Tybura (+120), Over 3.5 Rounds (+100), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-210), Either Fighter via TKO/KO (-105)

UFC on ESPN 61 Preliminary Card Predictions   

The following UFC on ESPN 61 predictions are for the Preliminary Card, which begins live at 4pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+.  

Stephanie Luciano (-180) vs. Talita Alencar (+150)

This all-Brazilian women’s strawweight bout between Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1) and Talita Alencar (5-0-1) is set to open up the UFC on ESPN 61 event. It’s also a rematch between the two combatants who fought on DWCS in September 2023, which ended in a Draw.

After the Draw, Alencar made her UFC debut in December 2023, and beat Rayanne dos Santos via split decision. If the Brazilian grappler isn’t going to a decision, she’s forcing her opponents to tap out with three submissions victories in five career wins.

Luciano hasn’t fought since the September 2023 Draw against Alencar. When she’s not going the distance, the Brazilian striker is scoring TKO/KO victories with three in five total wins.

I don’t see a Draw happening again. However, I do see this going Over 2.5 rounds (-260) and the full distance (-230). With that said, I like Luciano in this contest. Her striking skills are far better than Alencar’s striking. And, if Luciano can stay out of trouble on the mat, she should win this via unanimous decision.

Bet: Stephanie Luciano (-180), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260), Fight Goes The Distance (-230)

Jarno Errens (+285) vs. Youssef Zalal (-350)

Jarno Errens (14-5-1) vs. Youssef Zalal (14-5-1) will be contested in the featherweight division.

Errens enters this event as the largest betting underdog. Currently, he’s 1-2 in the UFC with two losses to open up his tenure. In his last bout, March 2024, Errens was able to snap that skid with a decision win over Steven Nguyen.

From 2020-2022, Zalal had a wild ride in the UFC. He started off 3-0 inside the octagon but then when 0-3-1 and was booted from the UFC. He would head back to the regional promotions and string together three consecutive wins before coming back to the UFC in March 2024, where he beat Billy Quarantillo via 2^nd round submission.

The odds favor this bout to go Over 2.5 rounds (-220) and the full distance (-200). Errens has gone the distance in 10 of 19 pro fights including five in a row. Zalal has gone the distance in nine of 19 pro fights including seven fights in the UFC.

As for the winner, Zalal is the clear-cut better fighter. I expect the American to outclass Errens, who is better off keeping the fight off the mat. Take Zalal to win via unanimous decision.

Bet: Youssef Zalal (-350), Over 2.5 Rounds (-220), Fight Goes The Distance (-200)

Karl Williams (-200) vs. Jhonata Diniz (+170)

Although he’s undefeated Jhonata Diniz (7-0) comes into this heavyweight fight against Karl Williams (12-2) as a large underdog.

Diniz made his UFC debut in April, and beat Austen Lane via 2^nd round KO. He’ earned that opportunity by beating Eduardo Neves via 1^st round KO on DWCS 11 months ago. All seven of his wins have come via TKO/KO. Six of those wins have come in the first round. Diniz has never made it to the third round.

Williams has won seven consecutive bouts. He appeared on DWCS in September 2022, and beat Jimmy Lawson via decision. Since then, he’s gone 3-0 inside the octagon. All three wins were via decision, with his March 2024 victory over Justin Tafa.

The odds favor this bout to go Over 1.5 rounds (-205). However, it’s also favored to end inside the distance (-140). I see this going Over the 1.5 round mark. And I like it to go the distance.

Williams should avoid any prolonged striking exchanges with Diniz, due to the latter’s knockout power. I think we see a more cautious Williams who looks for takedowns over a knockout. Then, he outpoints Diniz for the win.

Bet: Karl Williams (-200), Over 1.5 Rounds (-205), Fight Goes The Distance (+110)

Karol Rosa (-200) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+170)

This bantamweight women’s fight is a Top 15 battle as the #8 Karol Rosa (17-6) takes on the #11 Pannie Kianzad (16-8).

Rosa is a sizable favorite in this bout, but is coming off a loss in her last fight. She suffered a decision defeat to Irene Aldana last December. However, Rosa has alternated between wins and losses over the last fear years. She’s 7-3 inside the octagon.

Kianzad is also coming off a loss. In fact, she’s dropped two in a row and three of her last four trips inside the octagon. She’s now 6-5 in the UFC and in danger of falling out of the Top 15 with a loss this weekend.

First, it’s clear that this fight is going Over 2.5 rounds (-425) and the full distance (-400). 15 of Rosa’s 23 pro fights have gone the distance including nine bouts in a row. 17 of Kianzad’s 24 pro bouts have gone the distance, including nine of the last 10.

As for the winner, these two women have similar styles along with similar strengths and weaknesses. However, Rosa is the better grappler of the two. So, she always has the takedown as a card to play later, if she’s in trouble standing and striking. Either way, I like Rosa to win this bout with the judges as she lands more significant strikes and a takedown or two.

Bet: Karol Rosa (-200), Over 2.5 Rounds (-425), Fight Goes The Distance (-400), Rosa by Points (+110)

Danny Barlow (-350) vs. Nikolay Veretenikov (+285)

Like with the Errens vs. Zalal fight, this welterweight matchup between Danny Barlow (8-0) and Nikolay Veretenikov (12-4) has a similar massive disparity in odds. As of this writing, both Barlow and Zalal have the highest moneyline at -350 odds.

Barlow is undefeated in his young career, which includes going 1-0 in the UFC after beating Josh Quinlan in February via 3^rd round TKO. It was the 4^th straight TKO/KO victory in a row. Barlow earned a UFC opportunity after a 1^st round TKO win over Raheam Forest on DWCS in September 2023. Five of his eight pro wins have come via TKO/KO.

Veretenikov enters this contest on a three-fight wining streak. All three bouts came in the United Fight League from May 2023 to April 2024. Veretenikov appeared on DWC in September 2021, but lost via decision. If it weren’t for the three early losses of his career, back in 2014, Veretenikov would be 11-1 in his pro career. Nine of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage.

This bout is favored to go Over 1.5 rounds (-215), but end inside the distance (-150). I tend to agree with this. In 24 combined pro bouts, these two men have gone the distance in just six of them. Neither man is known for their grappling skills. However, I think Barlow is the better striker between the two and has a better shot at a takedown if the opportunity presents itself.

I think someone is getting finished in this fight, and I believe Veretenikov will be the one to eat a TKO/KO. Barlow looks like the better athlete and fighter, which will translate into his fifth straight TKO/KO victory. This should be another stepping stone for Barlow to move closer to the Top 15 rankings.

Bet: Danny Barlow (-350), Over 1.5 Rounds (-215), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-150), Barlow Wins via TKO/KO (+115)

Toshiomi Kazama (+190) vs. Charalampos Grigoriou (-220)

As of this writing, this bantamweight clash between Toshiomi Kazama (10-4) and Charalampos Grigoriou (8-4) is scheduled for the featured bout of the UFC on ESPN 61 Preliminary Card.

Kazama has had some success outside of the UFC, but inside the octagon has been a different story. He’s dropped both of his UFC fights, not including the Singapore series, and hasn’t competed in a year. Kazama lost both of those UFC bouts via TKO/KO. He’s 1-3 in his last four bouts over the last 28 months.

Grigoriou rode a three-fight winning streak into a DWCS appearance in August 2023, where he beat Cameron Smotherman via 1^st round TKO. That earned him a shot in the UFC. Unfortunately, he dropped his debut in March against Chad Anheliger via decision.

The Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds with the Over favored at -140 odds. The fight is expected to finish inside the distance (-225). I think we have two fighters that love to get the finish whether it’s standing upright or on the mat.

With that said, I believe that Grigoriou is the better striker of the two. I see Kazama getting overzealous and his aggressiveness will open the door for Grigoriou to find the finish. Take Grigoriou to win via TKO/KO. Avoid the O/U as this fight could end quickly or go int the third round.

Bet: Bet: Charalampos Grigoriou (-220), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-225)

UFC on ESPN 61 Fight Card