UFC on ESPN 65 Odds and Predictions

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A tense battle between Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy awaits us this weekend, as the two touch gloves at UFC Vegas 105 (aka UFC on ESPN 65).

It’s not the most amazing main event we’ll get this year, but it’s certainly an underrated one. There are several other bouts on this UFC Fight Night card that are a bit more appealing than you’d think, too.

Looking for help on betting on UFC on ESPN 65? You can trust in my UFC picks, as I break down every fight and hand over my winner prediction.

Where To Watch UFC Vegas 105?

If you want to watch UFC on ESPN 65 live, tune into ESPN or ESPN+ at 5:00 pm EST this weekend.

When Is UFC on ESPN 65?

The next big MMA event arrives this Saturday, April 5th, 2025.

Where Is UFC Vegas 105?

Want to attend the bouts in person? Head to Las Vegas. Emmett vs. Murphy headlines an underrated card at the UFC Apex in Nevada.

UFC Vegas 105 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC on ESPN 65 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

UFC Vegas 105 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC on ESPN 65 starts at 8:00 pm EST on ESPN and ESPN+.

Lerone Murphy (-308) vs. Josh Emmett (+258)

Josh Emmett is a pretty enticing underdog. He’s ancient (40), but he’s a grizzly veteran that does not go down easily, and also packs a serious punch. He has a solid overall record (19-4), and he’s KO’d people seven times, while being KO’d just once in his entire career.

Emmett doesn’t have much of a window to do anything of substance in the UFC considering his age, of course, and he also probably only has one clear path to a victory this weekend. If you believe he can knock Murphy out, then bite on the moneyline. If not, it’s a big time pass.

Murphy has a reach advantage by 3.5 inches and is three inches taller than his opponent. He’s going to be far more aggressive with takedowns and even if he doesn’t finish Emmett (7 KOs) he should inflict enough damage to win if this one goes the distance.

Nobody has beaten Murphy yet. He’s 15-0-1 and a win here could help catapult him to new heights. I tend to doubt his progress is going to be slowed by Emmett, even if he gives him hell initially.

Bet: Lerone Murphy (-308)

Joanderson Brito (-229) vs. Pat Sabatini (+194)

Pat Sabatini (19-5) got a nice win in his last match, where he submitted Jonathan Pearce in the first round. That wasn’t overly shocking as the 34-year old had 11 career submissions to his name coming into that bout.

Sabatini could offer compelling value as he measures up to Joanderson Brito (17-4-1), but it’s worth noting he’s been a bit inconsistent now (2-2) over his last four fights, and his two losses were KOs. That could be bad news against a guy like Brito that has elite finishing ability (15 wins by stoppage), and hasn’t been finished himself since 2015.

Brito feels like the rightful favorite here. He’s a staggering 16-2-1 over his last 19 bouts, and his two defeats during that stretch have gone the distance. He’s the more skilled and more dominant fighter in this matchup. He’s also four years younger and owns a two-inch reach edge.

Sabatini has spunk and deserves credit for an impressive win, but he grades out as the slightly weaker fighter in this one.

Bet: Joanderson Brito (-229)

ChangHo Lee (-136) vs. Cortavious Romious (+116)

This battle is pretty evenly matched, as it pits ChangHo Lee (10-1) against Cortavious Romious (9-3). The latter will enter as the slight underdog, even though he’s arguably had the more impressive path to this point.

Romious has more losses in his career, but he gave it a good go in his UFC debut and he’s faced tougher competition. ChangHo Lee has just one loss on his ledger, though, and he’s been pretty dominant despite the weaker competition.

Lee won the Road to UFC recently, while he’s racked up five KO wins in his 10 victories. Romious appears to be a bit more balanced and battle tested, but I like the upside we get with Lee. After delivering a ho-hum performance in his last bout, I wouldn’t be shocked if he came out with some fireworks in this one.

You could argue there’s value on either side, but when a fight is priced this tightly, I prefer to lean with the more explosive fighter. Right or wrong, that’s undeniably Lee.

Bet: ChangHo Lee (-136)

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-310) vs. Martin Buday (+260)

We get an absolute masher in Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-5), who can demolish opponents on the feet or finish them on the ground. He’s able to stand tall and trade blows with anyone, typically absorbing damage and inflicting more than he takes on.

Beyond his toughness and power, Kennedy Nzechukwu is aided by his size and reach. That won’t abandon him in a date with Martin Buday (14-2), as he has six inches in reach advantage in this one.

The striking numbers also favor Kennedy Nzechukwu, while we can bet he’ll be looking to add to his 10 career knockouts. His style does leave him vulnerable to getting finished, but his all or nothing approach is certainly exciting for anyone hunting a KO prop.

Kennedy Nzechukwu is a really good bet to take care of business here. The -310 moneyline is a tad rich, though, especially when you consider Buday’s own power (7 KOs). It’s fine, but ideally we can get Kennedy by KO.

Bet: Kennedy Nzechukwu (-310)

Brad Tavares (-240) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+205)

The end is coming for Brad Tavares, who has got to be one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. 

He’s been around for a while and has a middling 20-11 record, but the 37-year old is a super explosive striker and elite finisher. The problem? He’s getting a bit long in the tooth and we haven’t seen much of that finishing ability in some time.

Tavares could certainly live up to this -240 price tag, but he literally hasn’t finished anyone since 2018. He’s also not finding ways to win matches, as he’s lost two in a row and four of his last five. In this one he gets Gerald Meerschaert, who is a major contrast to his style (29 career submissions!).

The reality is Tavares will press and attack Meerschaert on the feet, and Meerschaert wants this fight on the canvas. Due to his experience and reach edge (3.5 inches), I actually love his chances to keep Tavares at bay until he can bring him to the mat.

Bet: Gerald Meerschaert (+205)

Torrez Finley (-240) vs. Robert Valentin (+205)

The last fight of the UFC Vegas 105 main card features a showdown between Torrez Finley (10-0) and Robert Valentin. Finley is an exciting prospect, as the 26-year old is a physical specimen and extremely aggressive.

Finley has shown an ability to win fights standing up, but he’s at his best when taking fighters to the ground and battering them. The sample size isn’t massive, but the dude seems impossible to get to, as he can punch his way out of jams, and more often than not can just pick up his opponent out of nowhere and slam them to the mat.

I’m quite surprised the line isn’t bigger here. Finley is a major handful, having ended eight of his 10 wins early. I see another quick exit in the cards against Robert Valentin (11-4), who has an edge in height and reach, but that’s about it.

Valentin does have the added threat of potentially countering Finley’s aggressiveness thanks to a solid submission game. I won’t pretend to think Finley is unbeatable, but my assumption is it’ll take someone a bit more formidable to hand him his first loss.

This is really good value, but I’d be chasing down some KO or inside the distance props for Finley.

Bet: Torrez Finley (-240)

UFC on ESPN 65 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Vegas 105 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The pricing is pretty good for the Prelims for this event. Several fights are dead even, largely because they’re very difficult to call. I’ll break them down and hand out my favorite picks, though.

As far as odds go, the Lookboonmee fight seems like one to avoid. She is a massive favorite, but anytime we’re working with a moneyline north of -350, things can get dicey in a hurry. Ditto for Barbosa, which is even worse.

While those prices are obscene, you can always entertain betting on the upset or targeting props involving the method of victory. I have my fight picks in the table above, but read on for further analysis.

UFC on ESPN 65 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC Vegas 105 Prelims will roll out at 5:00 pm EST on ESPN and ESPN+.

Luis Gurule (-240) vs. Ode Osbourne (+205)

I fully expect Luis Gurule (10-0) to remain undefeated this weekend when he faces off with Ode Osbourne (12-8). It’s not the gimme matchup some would think, of course, as Osbourne does have a pretty obvious reach advantage (9 inches!).

That’s about all that is promising for Osbourne, though. The 33-year old is the weaker striker by comparison, and despite a fairly versatile skill-set and some nice finishes, he’s been in terrible form (1-4 over his last five) and has been finished a ton throughout his career.

I tend to think that is bad news against Gurule, who can inflict a ton of punishment and has 5 KOs to his name. Even if he doesn’t knock Osbourne out, I think he easily wins if this thing goes the distance.

Bet: Luis Gurule (-240)

Daniel Santos (-150) vs. Davey Grant (+130)

A tight one for bettors to call is Daniel Santos (12-2) vs. Davey Grant (16-7). Grant has a bit more experience and a couple inches in reach, but he is a tough sell at age 39. He’s on par with Santos in terms of raw striking numbers, but he’s not known for power and he arguably only has one path to a win here.

Grant is a submission guru (9 submissions), and to his credit, the aging mixed martial artist is a solid 3-1 over his last four bouts. That includes a Decision win over Ramon Taveras his last time out, and he actually has two wins via stoppage as recently as 2022 and 2023.

All of that sounds pretty good, but Santos is far younger, scrappier, quicker, and more explosive. It is a mismatch in the athletic department, while Santos has proven to be strong both at ending fights early, and preventing quick exits for himself.

It’s that combination of elite offense and defense that should both keep Santos out of trouble on the mat, and give him the leg up in the W column.

Bet: Daniel Santos (-150)

Dione Barbosa (-900) vs. Diana Belbita (+600)

This fight is extremely lopsided in terms of price. Dione Barbosa (7-3) doesn’t have as much experience as Diana Belbita (15-9), but she’s the more skilled fighter and has been more impressive to this point.

Belbita is going to want this fight to stay standing up, as her strength is striking and she’s worked her way to six KOs so far in her career. That could give her a puncher’s chance, but her nine losses – more specifically five submission defeats – reminds everyone of her inability to gain leverage when the fight goes to the ground.

Barbosa is the better wrestler, is aggressive with her takedowns (1.73 takedowns per fight), and she has a solid submission game. She is coming off of a loss to Miranda Maverick, but has otherwise been on fire with four wins in a row before that defeat.

Barbosa doesn’t have a ton of finishes, but she should out-work her opponent in this one. A submission win is definitely in play, but my money’s on Barbosa via Decision. Due to that, though, this bet is one to avoid.

Bet: Dione Barbosa (-900)

Daniel Frunza (-158) vs. Rhys Mckee (+138)

This is an interesting fight, as Daniel Frunza (9-2) is the tentative favorite even though he’s slightly older and loses a whopping five inches in reach. Reach isn’t everything, but his opponent Rhys McKee (13-6-1) is on par with him in the striking department.

Frunza is very dangerous, of course. He has 8 KOs to his name and is running hot with a knockout in each of his last five fights. He’ll be making his official UFC debut after winning in the Contender Series last September, so he’s clearly gaining some steam.

I’m taking him seriously, but let’s not brush past McKee, who has been quite explosive (10 knockouts!) and was a champion with the Cage Warriors promotion. He has not had as much luck with two Decision losses so far inside the UFC, but I still appreciate his power and the value he brings to the table.

While true, Frunza has been on a tear and I think he smashes in his UFC debut. A KO is in play here.

Bet: Daniel Frunza (-158)

Loma Lookboonmee (-650) vs. Istela Nunes (+475)

The second biggest favorite at UFC on ESPN 65 is Loma Lookboonmee, who is a gifted fighter and former champion. She does lose size and major reach to Istela Nunes, but she’s the more explosive striker and is also the superior defender.

I wouldn’t totally write off Nunes for the upset, of course. She’s got that reach edge, she does land 5.02 significant strikes per minute, and she has two KOs to her name. Unfortunately, she’s lost four in a row and each of her last two bouts ended in a knockout loss.

Lookboonmee is not going to put herself in major jams and it’s pretty obvious at this point that Nunes gets herself into more trouble. I expect Lookboonmee to maintain control of this one and a finish isn’t out of the question at all.

Bet: Loma Lookboonmee (-650)

Vanessa Demopoulos (-110) vs. Talita Alencar (-110)

This fight doesn’t even technically have a betting favorite. The odds are split, but if I had to price it myself, I’d lean Vanessa Demopoulos’s way. She’s two years older than her opponent and has endured far more losses, but she also has way more experience and the slight reach edge.

In addition, Demopoulos has been fighting at a high level for longer. She’s got a good floor game (4 submissions) and she is a tough nut to crack (never been KO’d). Talita Alencar (5-1-1) has good submission skills, but she was not particularly impressive in a Decision loss in her last fight and she hasn’t ended a fight early since 2022.

That isn’t to say she can’t submit Demopoulos, but these two are evenly matched and I think Vanessa has the defense to stay in this one throughout. If she can, she’s a really good bet to get a Decision win.

Bet: Vanessa Demopoulos (-110)

Victor Henry (-205) vs. Pedro Falcao (+175)

The last fight of the Prelims goes down between Victor Henry (24-7) and Pedro Falcao (16-4). Henry has way more experience and is a sizable favorite here because of it, while he also is a little taller and has two inches in reach in his favor.

Henry is also much older at 37 years of age, and while he’s a substantially more impactful striker (7.66 significant strikes landed per minute), he won’t take the fight to the ground as much or as successfully as Falcao.

Still, Henry is explosive (7 KOs) and versatile, as he can end the fight with his fists or finish it on the mat (8 submissions). His recent form is mixed, as he got submitted in his last fight, but earned a KO win as recently as last April.

Falcao is equally versatile, scoring six knockout wins in his career, but also securing five wins via submission. He dropped his UFC debut a year ago, but before that he was on a finishing tear.

I actually am going with the upset here. Henry is highly skilled and dangerous, but he’s getting a bit long in the tooth. He’ll be taking on another skilled fighter that will be looking to prove his worth. We know he can be explosive, and he just needs to show it at this level. For +175, I’m willing to risk it with him.

Bet: Pedro Falcao (+175)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Lerone Murphy (-308)
• Kennedy Nzechukwu (-310)
• Torrez Finley (-240)

You’re not getting amazing value with the exact odds above, but you’re getting likely winners. I think the real play is going that extra mile and hunting some method of victory prop bets.

Regardless, these prices are still in play. Lerone Murphy feels like a good bet against Josh Emmett in the main event. Emmett is capable even at age 40, but he is certainly not as threatening as you’d like against an undefeated stud like Murphy. Many of the best handicappers are lining up a Murphy victory.

The same can be said for Kennedy Nzechukwu, although he feels even more likely to get the win. He is simply a punishing striker and finisher that is tough to survive – let alone actually take out. I don’t see Matin Buday upsetting him.

The biggest lock of this card has to be Torrez Finley, though. He is such a brute and a physical menace, that nobody who has watched his fights would be surprised in the least that he’s still undefeated. I don’t like Robert Valentin’s chances to hang in this one, much less find a way to actually get the win.

UFC Vegas 105 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: