Political Odds: Which World Leader Will Step Down Next? 

To say the world is in the midst of quite a bit of political upheaval would be an understatement. In addition to the ongoing 2024 US presidential campaign, we should also pay attention to the political goings-on elsewhere. The leaders of several other major countries – including Russia, France, Germany, and Canada – are facing uncertain futures.

At the top political betting sites, like BetUS, you can wager on which world leader will be the next to leave their post. We know President Joe Biden won’t be in office beyond January of 2025, but the American leader isn’t among the listed betting options. So, who’s a good bet to leave next?

Next World Leader to Step Down Odds

Justin Trudeau has been Prime Minister of Canada since 2015, and his leadership style has been defined by progressive policies, climate action, and efforts to reconcile with Indigenous communities. However, nearly a decade into his leadership, Trudeau is facing growing discontent across the political spectrum. 

His government’s handling of inflation, housing affordability, and an overall rise in the cost of living has created frustration among many Canadians, particularly the middle class and younger generations who are struggling to secure homes in an increasingly expensive market. Sound familiar, Americans?

In addition to economic challenges, Trudeau has been embroiled in a series of scandals, most notably the SNC-Lavalin affair in 2019, where his government was accused of pressuring the Attorney General to settle a corruption case. More recently, his handling of Chinese interference in Canadian elections and the mishandling of public funds has continued to undermine his credibility. 

While Trudeau is a charismatic figure, his third term in office has been marked by declining approval ratings, and many political analysts speculate that he might step down voluntarily rather than face what could be a tough fourth election.

His political future is further complicated by the rise of the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre, whose populist rhetoric has resonated with disaffected voters. Poilievre’s growing momentum has posed a legitimate threat to Trudeau’s Liberals, particularly in suburban and rural areas. 

Trudeau may feel the weight of political fatigue, as leaders who have been in office for extended periods often do. With internal divisions within his party and increasing pressure from the opposition, there is speculation that Trudeau could call it quits sooner rather than later, making him a top candidate to be the next world leader to step down.

Ultimately, while Trudeau has faced many challenges, he has also shown resilience in the past. If he were to step down, it could be either out of strategic decision-making to preserve his legacy or a forced exit due to an inability to maintain his coalition of voters. The +165 odds reflect the precariousness of his situation, but whether he exits voluntarily or as a result of electoral defeat remains to be seen. Canada’s next election is set to happen on or before October 20, 2025.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, is facing no shortage of pressure these days. Bibi has served a few non-consecutive terms as Israel’s Prime Minister since the 1990s. His latest return to power in 2022 was met with both celebration and significant backlash. 

His government, which leans heavily to the right, has been pushing a controversial judicial reform that would limit the powers of Israel’s Supreme Court—a move that has sparked one of the largest protest movements in the country’s history.

The judicial reforms have deeply polarized Israeli society. On one side, Netanyahu’s base argues that the judiciary has overstepped its bounds and needs reform. On the other, critics see the move as an attack on democracy and a power grab that threatens the checks and balances essential to Israel’s political system. 

Netanyahu’s handling of the situation has led to mass protests and strikes, and key military personnel have even threatened to resign. This level of unrest has significantly weakened Netanyahu’s political standing and raised the possibility of his removal either through political maneuvering within his party or through external pressure from opposition parties.

Israel is also dealing with an ongoing war against Hamas, which reignited after Hamas’ terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Netanyahu’s response to the attacks has drawn no shortage of backlash internationally, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) actually issued an arrest warrant for Bibi back in May of this year. The Israel-Gaza conflict is nothing new, of course, but Netanyahu’s actions have also drawn the ire of his own people.

Despite these headwinds, Netanyahu is a seasoned politician who has proven time and time again that he can survive crises that would sink other leaders. He’s also incredibly stubborn, and he’s repeatedly rejected the notion of stepping down despite his lack of popularity.

Olaf Scholz became Chancellor of Germany in December 2021, succeeding Angela Merkel, whose 16-year tenure left an indelible mark on the country and Europe as a whole. 

Scholz – representing the Social Democratic Party (SPD) – came into office with the unenviable task of navigating Germany through turbulent times, including the COVID-19 pandemic’s aftermath, the war in Ukraine, and an energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s cutoff of natural gas supplies. These challenges have tested Scholz’s leadership, and while he remains in power, his position has grown increasingly precarious.

Scholz’s government is a fragile coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), a combination that has proven difficult to manage. Disagreements on issues such as climate policy, defense spending, and economic recovery have strained relations within the coalition, and these fissures have started to erode Scholz’s approval ratings. 

His handling of Germany’s energy crisis, in particular, has drawn criticism. Germany’s overreliance on Russian gas prior to the Ukraine war has left the country scrambling for alternatives, and Scholz has been criticized for his perceived indecisiveness on the issue.

Additionally, Scholz faces increasing pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has gained momentum amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of inflation, immigration, and climate change policies. 

This rise in right-wing populism has complicated Scholz’s efforts to maintain a centrist course, and there are growing fears that his coalition may not survive the next election cycle intact. The Green Party, for instance, has shown impatience with Scholz’s moderate stance on climate change, creating the possibility of an internal rebellion that could topple his government.

While Scholz remains an important figure on the European stage, his domestic political situation is less stable. Should his coalition fracture or public dissatisfaction with his handling of economic issues continue to grow, he may find himself stepping down or being replaced by his party ahead of the next election. Given these factors, Scholz appears vulnerable, and his odds reflect the uncertainty surrounding his future in office. The next German election is expected to happen by September of ’25.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meteoric rise to international prominence is one of the most remarkable stories in modern politics. A former comedian and political outsider, Zelensky became President of Ukraine in 2019, promising to fight corruption and restore faith in government institutions. 

However, his leadership took on an entirely new dimension when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Zelenskyy quickly became the face of Ukrainian resistance, earning admiration and support from leaders across the world for his steadfastness in the face of existential threat.

While Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have soared internationally, leading his country through such a devastating war has taken its toll. Domestically, his government faces significant challenges beyond the war effort, including managing the economy, maintaining public morale, and navigating complex alliances with Western powers. 

Although Zelenskyy has gained widespread popularity for his resilience, leading a country under siege is unsustainable in the long term, and the outcome of the war will largely determine his political future.

If Ukraine successfully repels Russian forces and regains its territories, Zelenskyy could emerge as a national hero and serve for years to come. However, if the war grinds into a stalemate or Ukraine faces territorial losses, his position could become more precarious. 

His leadership would be under intense scrutiny, with potential accusations of mismanagement or being too reliant on Western military aid. Moreover, the strain of leading during wartime could push him to step down voluntarily, especially if a peace deal is reached that requires significant compromises.

Despite the immense challenges he faces, Zelenskyy seems less likely to leave office in the immediate future compared to some other leaders on this list. His departure is more contingent on external factors, primarily the outcome of the war and Ukraine’s reconstruction. 

Unless the situation dramatically changes, Zelenskyy will likely remain in power as long as the war continues, bolstered by the support of his people and the international community.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a dominant force in Turkish politics for over two decades, first as Prime Minister and later as President. His leadership style, marked by increasingly authoritarian tendencies, has significantly transformed Turkey, both domestically and in its foreign relations. 

Erdoğan’s grip on power appeared unshakable for many years, but recent economic troubles and a growing opposition movement have weakened his political standing. Despite narrowly winning re-election in May 2023, Erdoğan’s political future is less certain than ever before.

Turkey’s economy has been one of Erdoğan’s biggest vulnerabilities. For years, the country has struggled with high inflation, a weakening currency, and a cost-of-living crisis that has hit the average Turkish citizen hard. 

Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policies – including his insistence on lowering interest rates despite inflation – have been widely criticized by economists and have contributed to the country’s ongoing financial instability. Although he remains in power, the economic malaise has emboldened opposition parties and led to widespread public discontent.

The 2023 election was one of Erdoğan’s toughest challenges yet, and while he secured victory, the margin was narrow, and the country remains deeply divided. The opposition, led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, put up a strong fight, and the country’s political landscape is more fractured than it has been in years. 

Erdoğan’s alliance with nationalist and Islamist parties has helped him stay in power, but it has also alienated a significant portion of the electorate, particularly in urban areas and among younger voters. If Turkey’s economic woes persist, or if the opposition can maintain its unity, Erdoğan could face serious challenges in the next few years.

Furthermore, Erdoğan’s foreign policy decisions, particularly his involvement in conflicts in Syria and Libya and his strained relations with NATO allies, have raised concerns both domestically and internationally. 

Should his government falter in its handling of international crises or the economy worsen, there may be growing pressure for him to step down or for the opposition to seek early elections. While Erdoğan remains a powerful figure, his hold on power is no longer as secure as it once was, making him a potential candidate to leave office in the medium term.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – typically referred to simply as “Lula” – returned to Brazil’s presidency in 2023 after defeating incumbent and chronic Covid-catcher Jair Bolsonaro in a fiercely contested election. His comeback was a significant political event, as Lula had previously served two terms as president from 2003 to 2011, during which time he presided over a period of economic growth and poverty reduction. 

However, his return to office comes with significant challenges, as Brazil remains deeply polarized, and Lula faces the herculean task of governing a country still reeling from the political, economic, and social divisions exacerbated by Bolsonaro’s tenure.

One of Lula’s main challenges is managing Brazil’s faltering economy. Inflation, unemployment, and public debt remain pressing issues, and his left-wing policies, which focus on welfare expansion, could come into conflict with the fiscal realities of the country. 

Lula has emphasized the need to balance social programs with economic growth, but he faces opposition from business sectors and conservative politicians who argue that his policies could further destabilize the economy. In addition to these economic pressures, Lula’s administration must also contend with a Congress that is heavily divided, making it difficult for him to pass sweeping reforms.

Another challenge for Lula is Brazil’s environmental policies, particularly regarding the Amazon rainforest. During Bolsonaro’s presidency, deforestation rates soared, leading to widespread international criticism. 

Lula has promised to protect the Amazon and reverse environmental damage, but doing so will require significant political will, as powerful agricultural and mining interests resist such measures. Balancing these demands while maintaining Brazil’s economic growth will test Lula’s ability to govern effectively.

Politically, Lula faces strong opposition from Bolsonaro’s supporters, who remain highly vocal and organized. Many still contest the legitimacy of Lula’s election victory, leading to the storming of Brazil’s governmental buildings in early 2023—a clear sign of the enduring strength of the far-right movement in Brazil. 

Lula must govern a country where a large segment of the population remains hostile to his leadership, creating an environment ripe for political instability. However, Lula has a history of political survival and is an experienced leader. While his government faces significant headwinds, Lula’s extensive political capital and international support make it less likely that he will be the next leader to step down, at least in the immediate future.

Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics for more than two decades, with his tenure marked by a shift from semi-democratic rule to an increasingly authoritarian regime. He’s an old-school dictator, folks. 

Since coming to power in 1999, Putin has reshaped Russia’s political landscape, consolidating power and suppressing opposition. His recent invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has further defined his leadership, drawing widespread international condemnation and isolating Russia economically and diplomatically. 

Despite the ongoing war and its economic consequences, Putin remains firmly in control of Russia, although his future could be tied to the eventual outcome of the conflict.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was intended to reassert Russia’s dominance in Eastern Europe, but the war has not gone as planned. Russia has faced significant military setbacks, international sanctions, and a deteriorating economy. 

These factors have led to some internal dissent, though Putin has been effective at suppressing opposition through strict media control, imprisonment of political rivals like Alexei Navalny, and quashing public protests. While Putin’s grip on power remains strong, the prolonged conflict in Ukraine has raised questions about his long-term political viability.

Internationally, Putin has become a pariah, with Russia facing economic sanctions from Western nations and being isolated in global forums. Domestically, however, his control over the narrative has helped maintain his popularity among certain segments of the Russian population, particularly through state propaganda that portrays the war as a necessary defense of Russian sovereignty. 

The war’s outcome will likely determine Putin’s future. If Russia can claim victory or at least salvage a face-saving compromise, Putin may continue to rule for years to come. However, a clear defeat or an ongoing military quagmire could weaken his standing and potentially lead to a coup or forced resignation from within the Kremlin’s elite circles.

Although Putin’s departure from power seems less likely in the immediate future due to his strong authoritarian control, history shows that prolonged military failures and economic hardship can lead to political upheaval, even in highly controlled regimes. If internal dissent grows or his health declines (a subject of constant speculation), Putin could be forced out, though for now, he appears to have a relatively firm hold on power.

Javier Milei is a political newcomer who recently won the presidency of Argentina in a surprise victory that shook the political establishment. A self-described libertarian economist, Milei’s rise to power has been driven by frustration with Argentina’s long-standing economic problems, including chronic inflation, debt crises, and high unemployment. 

His anti-establishment rhetoric and promises to overhaul Argentina’s economic system have resonated with voters tired of the traditional parties that have governed the country for decades.

Milei has promised sweeping reforms, including slashing government spending, reducing taxes, and even adopting the U.S. dollar as Argentina’s currency to combat hyperinflation. While his economic policies appeal to many who believe Argentina needs a radical shift, they also come with significant risks. 

Implementing such dramatic changes could lead to social unrest, particularly from unions, public sector workers, and those who rely on government programs. Argentina’s history of political volatility makes Milei’s presidency particularly unpredictable.

Milei’s political inexperience is another factor that could influence his longevity in office. He faces significant opposition from established political parties, and his confrontational style has made him many enemies within the political class. Governing in such a fractured environment will be challenging, especially as he attempts to push through his ambitious reforms. 

If Milei fails to deliver on his promises or if his policies lead to greater economic instability, his presidency could be cut short either through impeachment or widespread protests.

That said, Milei is still new to the political scene and has only just begun his term. It is unlikely that he will be the next world leader to leave office, as his government is in its infancy. However, Argentina’s history of political instability means that his future is far from guaranteed, and his leadership could be tested in the coming years as he tries to implement his radical economic agenda.

Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, is currently serving his second term in office after winning re-election in 2022. Macron’s leadership has been marked by his attempts to reform France’s economy, particularly through pension reform and labor market liberalization, which have sparked significant protests. 

His pro-European Union stance, coupled with his centrist policies, has often made him a target for both the far-left and far-right factions within France. However, Macron’s relatively young age and political ambition suggest that he may have long-term aspirations beyond the French presidency.

While Macron’s second term has been met with ongoing domestic unrest – most notably the large-scale protests against his pension reform – he remains a highly influential figure in European and global politics. 

His government has also had to navigate the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and rising inflation, all of which have created a more hostile political environment. Despite this, Macron’s control over the political landscape in France remains strong, and there are no immediate threats to his leadership.

However, Macron’s term will expire in 2027, and French law prevents him from running for a third consecutive term. This creates an interesting dynamic, as Macron may begin looking for opportunities beyond the presidency, possibly in international organizations such as the European Union or United Nations. 

While his departure from office is inevitable by 2027, there are no indications that he will leave office before then. Given this, it seems highly unlikely that Macron will be the next world leader to step down.

Macron’s focus will likely remain on maintaining stability within France while securing his legacy as a reformer. Although protests and social unrest will continue to be significant challenges, Macron’s political resilience and ability to navigate complex crises suggest that he will complete his second term without any major disruptions.

Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK’s Labour Party, is the freshest face on the list. Starmer became the UK’s new Prime Minister back in July, so he’s been in office for just over a month. Starmer has been leading the Labour Party since 2020, succeeding Jeremy Corbyn after Labour’s crushing defeat in the 2019 general election. 

However, Starmer has already had to deal with unrest thanks to anti-immigration riots that swept through the UK earlier this month. 

While Starmer has made significant progress in rehabilitating Labour’s image, moving it away from Corbyn’s far-left policies and toward a more centrist platform, he faces challenges in maintaining unity within the party. His leadership has been criticized by some factions for being too cautious or lacking bold vision, though his strategy appears to have paid off thanks to Labour’s big wins in the most recent election.

Starmer will face no shortage of opposition in what is a very divided United Kingdom, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll be the next world leader to leave his post considering he only recently got the job.

Prediction: Who Will Be the Next World Leader to Leave Office?

After analyzing each leader’s current situation, it’s clear that some are under more immediate pressure than others. Justin Trudeau and Benjamin Netanyahu stand out as the most likely candidates to leave office soon. 

Trudeau is facing increasing political fatigue, declining approval ratings, and a rising opposition in Canada, making it plausible that he could step down before another election. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is grappling with mass protests over judicial reforms and the war in Gaza, which could lead to his resignation or removal.

While Olaf Scholz and Volodymyr Zelenskyy also face significant challenges, their departures seem less imminent. Erdoğan, Lula, and Putin, though facing various forms of instability, have more entrenched positions, while Milei, Macron, and Starmer are relatively secure for now.

Bet: Benjamin Netanyahu (+250)