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The college football playoffs come loaded with exciting plays, nail-biting finishes, and lucrative betting action. And with so many games throughout the stretch of the playoffs, there are numerous opportunities to earn money from your wagers.
In this guide, we’ll provide you with everything you need to know to capitalize on the college football playoffs this season. We’ll cover some of the biggest games to bet on, the most useful advanced statistics you should analyze, and expert tips you should consider before placing your bets.
Table of Contents
College Football Playoff Predictions
Biggest College Football Playoff Games
One of the greatest things about the NCAA football playoffs is that there are a ton of huge games that bring in a lot of betting action. This gives you numerous opportunities to find great value on some of the most anticipated games of the year.
Games include the playoff semifinals, bowl games, conference championships, and the National Championship.
Bowl Games
Not all bowl games serve as semifinal games, although it does happen on occasion. Either way, these games feature two top teams and come packed with exciting betting action:
- Orange Bowl
- Fiesta Bowl
- Peach Bowl
Playoff Semifinals
The playoff semifinals are the biggest college football playoff games aside from the national championship. The two major semifinal games are:
- Rose Bowl: Held in Pasadena, California, the Rose Bowl is known for its long history and grand setting. It draws significant viewership and betting interest each year.
- Sugar Bowl: The Sugar Bowl is held at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Like the Rose Bowl, it has a long, rich history and is highly-anticipated by viewers and bettors.
Conference Championships
There are a handful of conference championship games each year, and they feature 10 of the most exciting teams in college football.
- SEC Championship: Played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, it often features top-ranked teams with playoff implications and sees heavy betting action.
- Big Ten Championship: Held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, it usually includes teams vying for a playoff spot, attracting significant bets.
- ACC Championship: Typically played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, it features top ACC teams with potential playoff berths on the line.
- Big 12 Championship: Held at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, it often includes teams in the playoff hunt and garners considerable betting interest.
- Pac-12 Championship: Played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, it features top Pac-12 teams with playoff implications, drawing notable betting action.
National Championship
The pinnacle of college football, this game determines who will be crowned as the national champion. It’s held at a rotating venue and attracts massive betting action due to its significance and high-profile nature.
Types of College Football Playoff Bets
Betting on the college football playoffs is no different than betting during the regular season. The biggest difference you’ll notice is that sportsbooks offer a greater selection of lines and bets you can place.
Here is a quick summary of the bet types you’ll find for the college football playoffs:
- Moneyline: The moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win the game. The favorites are listed with negative odds, while the underdogs have positive odds.
- Point Spread: The point spread bet is a wager on whether the underdog team will cover the spread (typically 1.5). To win the spread bet, the favored team must win by at least 2 points, or the underdog must win or lose by less than 2 points.
- Totals & Over/Unders: Over/under bets, also known as a totals bet, is a wager on whether the final score will be over or under the estimated score by the sportsbook.
- Prop Bets: Prop bets are unique bets that let you wager on specific outcomes or occurrences within the game itself. These are typically centered around individual player or team performances, but can also include exotic outcomes such as celebrity appearances and coin toss results.
- Parlays: Parlays are a risky type of bet, but offer high payouts for successful bettors. A parlay bet lets you roll multiple wagers into one, giving you lucrative odds for what is an unlikely outcome. To win your parlay, every leg of your bet must hit. If one misses, then you lose the entire bet.
- Live Bets: Live betting is when you wager on the game while the game is being played. This includes wagers on how a drive will end, what the next play will be, and who will score next. These bets require quick reactions to keep up with shifting betting lines.
Best Stats to Analyze for College Football Playoffs Betting
Being a successful bettor during the college football playoffs requires much more than just a love for the game. It takes time and dedication to understand the game and matchup on a deeper level.
One of the best ways to give yourself an extra advantage is to analyze advanced statistics that give you better insight into a specific matchup. These types of stats can give you insight into a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as how they perform in specific situations.
Some of the most useful advanced stats for the college football playoffs include:
- Starting field position & finishing field position
- Points per drive & explosive play rate
- Expected points added & success rate
- Rushing success rate by down & distance
Starting Field Position & Finishing Field Position
These two statistics give you great insight into an offense’s tendencies in regard to where their drives start and begin.
- Starting Field Position: This stat measures the average yard line where a team begins its offensive drives. It is influenced by factors such as kick returns, turnovers, and opponent punts.
- Finishing Field Position: This measures the average yard line where a team’s offensive drives end. It reflects the team’s ability to move the ball down the field and finish drives, either by scoring or being stopped by the defense.
When planning your bets, you can use these stats to analyze a team’s efficiency on offense and special teams. Teams with a consistently generous starting field position are likely benefiting from strong special teams play or a defense that is forcing opponents to punt the ball away deep in their own territory.
Teams that have strong finishing field position stats are generally more effective at moving the ball down the field and scoring, indicating a strong offense. This is useful context when betting on the moneyline, point spread, and over/under.
Points Per Drive (PPD) & Explosive Play Rate
The PPD and explosive play rate stats are great for analyzing a team’s ability to make big plays and score. More specifically, it’s a measurement of how explosive the offense is and how well they can consistently score points from their drives.
- Points Per Drive (PPD): This statistic measures the average number of points a team scores per offensive drive. It provides insight into a team’s offensive efficiency.
- Explosive Play Rate: This stat tracks the percentage of offensive plays that result in a significant gain, typically defined as 10+ yards for rushing plays and 20+ yards for passing plays.
For bettors, these statistics are gold. A high PPD indicates that an offense is consistent and potent, which is great for considering performance during high-stakes games such as the playoffs. Use this stat to make wagers on the spreads and over/under.
For explosive play rate statistics, bettors can gauge how capable a team is of making game-changing plays. In tight matchups where one or two key plays make the difference, this is great information to leverage.
Expected Points Added (EPA) & Success Rate
This pair of statistics takes a more in-depth look at offensive efficiency and provides insight into the effectiveness of individual plays rather than drives or games as a whole.
- Expected Points Added (EPA): This advanced stat quantifies the value of individual plays in terms of their impact on the expected points a team will score. It considers down, distance, and field position to assign a value to each play.
- Success Rate: This measures the percentage of plays that are deemed successful based on the down and distance. Typically, a play is considered successful if it gains at least 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down.
You can use EPA to compare teams’ overall effectiveness and predict performance against different types of opponents. It is especially useful for identifying teams that consistently outperform or underperform relative to traditional statistics.
Success Rate helps you understand how consistently a team moves the chains and stays on the field. High success rates on both offense and defense can indicate a team’s ability to control the game flow, making it a useful stat for betting on point spreads, moneylines, and game totals.
Rushing Success Rate by Down & Distance
This statistic breaks down the success rate of a team’s rushing plays based on the specific down and distance situations. It provides a detailed look at how effective a team’s rushing attack is in various scenarios, such as short-yardage, medium-yardage, and long-yardage situations.
As a bettor, you can use this stat to evaluate a team’s ability to run the ball effectively in critical situations. A high rushing success rate on early downs can indicate a team’s ability to stay ahead of the chains, leading to manageable third downs and sustained drives.
In playoff games, where controlling the clock and maintaining possession are crucial, a strong rushing success rate by down and distance can be a key indicator of a team’s potential to win. This information is particularly useful for betting on game flow, totals, and team props related to rushing performance.
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College Football Betting Tips
Here are some expert tips to consider when placing bets during the college football playoffs:
- Analyze Coaching Strategies & Adaptability: Carefully assess the coaching staff’s ability to adjust game plans and make in-game adjustments. Experienced coaches who can adapt their strategies based on the flow of the game or the opponent’s strategy often have an edge in high-stakes playoff scenarios.
- Evaluate Team Health and Depth: Injuries are a critical factor that can drastically alter the outcome of a game, and team depth is equally important. Teams that can effectively utilize their second-string players without a significant drop in performance are better positioned to handle the physical demands of playoff games.
- Consider Psychological & Emotional Factors: The mental and emotional state of a team can influence performance. Look for insights into team morale, leadership, and any off-field issues that might impact play.
- Weather Factors: Weather can play a significant role in outdoor games. Evaluate how teams perform in different weather conditions, especially if they are not accustomed to the climate of the game location.
- Special Teams Play: Special teams can be a game-changer in close matchups. Analyze a team’s performance in kickoffs, punts, field goals, and return games.
- Historical Performance in Big Games: Some programs have a history of rising to the occasion in big games, while others tend to falter. Dig back and look at a team’s performance in previous playoff games, bowl games, and other high-stakes matchups. This will give you insight into who can handle the pressure of big moments.
- Public Betting Trends and Market Movement: Monitor how betting lines move and consider the public betting trends. Sometimes, the betting public heavily favors one team, which can create value on the opposite side. Find ways to exploit public perception when you can.
College Football Playoff Predictions Can Go a Long Way
There is no shortage of betting opportunities during the college football playoffs. Not only do the playoffs feature some of the best games of the season, but there is a ton of value to be found for bettors who take the necessary steps.
Take advantage of our data and insights to give you an advantage over the sportsbooks this season. Our premium handicapping services will analyze the advanced statistics, break down matchups, and provide you with the highest-quality betting recommendations that you can find. Sign up today and get started on a profitable college football betting season.
