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Expert’s Guide to Profitable Super Bowl Betting
Anyone who is a fan of sports betting has likely bet on the Super Bowl. After all, the Super Bowl is the most highly anticipated sporting event of the year that brings in millions of viewers and bettors across the globe.
However, not everyone finds their betting efforts to be profitable. This is especially true for bettors who don’t follow football throughout the season and only tune in for the big game at the end of the year.
In this guide, we’re going to provide everything you need to know about betting on the Super Bowl, including how to maximize your profit, what you should be researching and considering when making your bets, advanced strategies you can use, and much more.
Super Bowl Betting Overview
The Super Bowl is a massive spectacle that is known for record-breaking viewership and wagers. The game takes place every February and features the AFC and NFC champion teams from the NFL. The winner of this game takes home the Lombardi trophy, as well as bragging rights until the season begins again in September.
While the NFL is already the most popular league for people to bet on, the Super Bowl takes it another step further. During the Super Bowl, sportsbooks get creative and offer a huge selection of new prop bets that you can only find during the big game.
Not only does this give bettors more options, but it makes every single play of the game even more exciting as the result of the play causes a bunch of betting slips to move into the win-or-lose column.
How to Bet on the Super Bowl
Betting on the Super Bowl is the same as betting on any other NFL game. The most significant difference is that you’ll have a much larger selection to choose from. You’ll also notice that sportsbooks offer great bonuses and promotions for this game, so be sure to take advantage of that when building your bet slip.
In general, you have the same selection of bets for the Super Bowl as you would a regular season game. This includes the following types of bets:
- Moneyline – Bet on which team you think will win the Super Bowl. The favorites are listed with negative (-) odds and the underdogs are listed with positive (+) odds.
- Point Spreads – Bet over or under on what the point differential will be between the two teams. This can be for the entire game or just one-half of it.
- Totals – Also known as the over/under bet, place a wager on whether the total score of the game will be above or below the total set by the sportsbook.
- Parlays – Roll two or more bets into one to create extremely profitable odds. All legs of your bet must hit to win.
- Futures – A futures bet is typically placed near the beginning of the season on which team will win the Super Bowl that year. This is a difficult bet to win but is very profitable for those who get it correct.
- Props – Perhaps the most popular bet type placed for the Super Bowl, prop bets let you bet on specific outcomes or occurrences that aren’t affected by the outcome of the game. This includes betting on individual player performances, team performances, and even exotic props such as the national anthem length and celebrity appearances.
- Live Bets – Live betting on the Super Bowl is particularly exciting. Some sportsbooks allow you to bet on how a drive will end, what the result will be, and, at times, what type of play will be run next.
What Stats Should You be Looking at for Super Bowl Betting?
Maximizing your success and profitability when betting on the Super Bowl goes far beyond basic research. The key is to analyze advanced statistics to give you a clear understanding of the upcoming matchup. This is the best way to make informed betting decisions.
Advanced stats can be broken down into different categories, which makes them great for placing specific bets. If you’ve never analyzed in-depth stats like this, it might not hurt to seek the assistance of a professional handicapping service that can help you break this down and provide betting recommendations.
Below are some of the most important advanced stats to look at before betting on the Super Bowl.
Offensive Efficiency
Offensive efficiency stats paint a clear picture of the two teams’ offensive performances against similar opponents. If you’re going to bet on total touchdowns, points, or even the first to score, then these stats are extremely important.
EPA (Expected Points Added) – EPA measures the expected points the team gains or loses on each play relative to the situation on the field (down, distance, and field position). It helps bettors understand the true value of a play beyond traditional yardage metrics, highlighting high-leverage plays that significantly impact the game.
Success Rate – Success rate is the percentage of plays that are deemed successful based on gaining a certain percentage of yards needed for a first down (typically 50% on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third/fourth down). It provides insight into a team’s consistency and efficiency in advancing the ball, offering a clearer picture than total yardage alone.
Drive Start Efficiency – This metric evaluates how efficiently a team advances the ball based on their starting field position. This helps bettors assess how well teams capitalize on field position, which can be crucial in closely contested games.
Defensive Efficiency
On the opposite end of offensive efficiency, the defensive efficiency stats are going to provide more insight into how well we can expect to see the defenses stop the opposing offense. These stats are a bit more difficult to analyze than offensive stats, but they hold extreme value if you can decipher them.
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) – DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on each play to the league average, adjusting for the quality of opponents. It offers a comprehensive view of a team’s performance in different situations, providing a more nuanced understanding of strengths and weaknesses.
Success Rate Allowed – This measures the percentage of successful plays allowed by a defense. This indicates defensive consistency and the ability to prevent opponents from sustaining drives.
Points Allowed Per Drive – The average number of points a defense allows per opponent drive. This stat helps gauge a defense’s overall effectiveness and efficiency in limiting scoring opportunities, especially against high-powered offenses.
Situational Performance
An understanding of a team’s situational performance can do wonders for your bets, especially if you plan on live betting during the Super Bowl.
Fourth Quarter Performance – Metrics assessing a team’s performance in the fourth quarter, including scoring, defense, and situational play. This is especially important for evaluating a team’s ability to perform under pressure and close out games, particularly in tight matchups.
Red Zone Touchdown Rate – The percentage of drives that end in touchdowns when a team reaches the red zone (inside the opponent’s 20-yard line). This is critical for understanding a team’s ability to convert scoring opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals.
Third Down Conversion Rate (Both Offensive and Defensive) – The percentage of third downs successfully converted into first downs or touchdowns by an offense or allowed by a defense. This is key for predicting a team’s ability to sustain drives or force punts, impacting game flow and scoring potential.
Player Performance
Many prop bets allow you to bet on individual performances for specific players, especially those expected to have a huge impact on the game. Most of the time, this is the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. However, these stats can also be used to measure individual defensive player performance.
Yards After Catch (YAC) – The total yards gained by a receiver after catching the ball. This is used to indicate the play making ability of receivers and the effectiveness of a team’s passing game in generating additional yards beyond the catch.
Completion Percentage Above Expectation (CPOE) – CPOE measures a quarterback’s completion percentage compared to the expected completion percentage based on the difficulty of throws. These highlight quarterback efficiency and accuracy, especially in challenging situations.
Passer Rating (Adjusted for Strength of Schedule) – Traditional passer rating adjusted to account for the quality of opposing defenses faced. This provides a more accurate assessment of a quarterback’s performance by considering the difficulty of their schedule.
Tips to Help You Bet on the Super Bowl
It’s never too early to begin thinking about betting on the Super Bowl. In fact, the more time you take to prepare, the better. While you’re reviewing and analyzing advanced statistics as we outlined above, be sure to also consider these helpful tips before placing your bets:
- Avoid playing long-term Super Bowl futures
- Use Miller’s strategy for stake sizes
- Hedge your bets
- Sign up for picks from a handicapper
Avoid Placing Long-Term Super Bowl Futures
There’s nothing wrong with placing a wager on one or two different teams to win the Super Bowl before the season begins. However, we advise caution if you’re considering placing an excessive number of futures bets on the big game.
For starters, futures bets are extremely difficult to win. This is because there is so much time between the start of the season and the Super Bowl that it’s impossible to predict what will happen in between. Injuries to star players, strength of schedule, and rule changes can all have a major impact on a team’s season.
Another reason to avoid long-term futures bets is that you can often find better value once the season begins. For instance, if the listed favorites to win the Super Bowl lose the first two games of the season, their odds will become even more profitable. Be patient and know when to place your bet.
Use Miller’s Strategy for Stake Sizes
Miller’s strategy for bet size, popularized by sports bettor John L. Miller, emphasizes disciplined and consistent staking to manage risk and capitalize on positive expected value (EV) bets. The core idea is to use a fixed percentage of the betting bankroll for each bet, adjusting this percentage based on the bettor’s confidence in their edge over the bookmaker.
For example, if a bettor has a bankroll of $10,000 in their account and wants to use 2% as their fixed percentage, they would be placing $200 per wager.
However, the strategy allows for wiggle room based on the confidence of the bet. If the bettor believes they have a significant edge on a bet, they may raise this percentage to 2.5%. If they believe the odds are less in their favor, they may reduce it to 1.5%.
This strategy also adjusts the wager amount as your bankroll grows or shrinks. If you’re using a 2% fixed percentage and your bankroll grows to $12,000, then your bets would also increase to $240. If your bankroll drops to $8,000, then your bets would come down to $160.
Miller’s strategy is great for managing your bankroll and ensuring that you get the most value possible out of your bets.
Hedge Your Bets
Hedging your bets is a great way to create a safety net for your budget. The process is simple – for every bet you place, place a smaller wager on the opposite result happening. If your first bet wins, then you earn a big enough payout to make up for the second bet. If your first bet loses and the second bet wins, you earn back a percentage of the original wager you lost.
Keep in mind that hedging is most effective for bets that only have two possible outcomes. Other bets, such as a bet on the first player to score, will be difficult to hedge because multiple possible outcomes could occur.
Sign Up for Picks from a Handicapper
The fastest way to prepare for Super Bowl betting is to sign up for a handicapping service. This is a great way to maximize your winning percentage and profits, and the price of these services almost always pays for itself.
There are many ways that a handicapper can help you prepare your bets, including:
- Game Analysis – A handicapping service will perform an in-depth analysis of the Super Bowl matchup. This includes analyzing the matchup and taking several factors into effect, such as historical performance, player injuries, weather conditions, and more.
- Expert Insights – Some handicappers have access to valuable insider information and news breaks before they become public knowledge. This gives you a huge advantage over sportsbooks because you can place your bets before the odds shift.
- Betting Recommendations – After the analysis is provided, handicappers can also recommend what bets they believe have the best statistical chance of hitting and awarding you a payout. This is one of the best features of a handicapper, as it saves you a ton of time and is the most direct type of advice you can receive.
- Historical Performance – A handicapping service will offer a breakdown of historical performance, both for the Super Bowl and the teams playing in it. This is great context to have for future bets you’ll place, and you can easily identify the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.
Join Scores and Stats Today
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Super Bowl Betting History: 5 of the Biggest Wins
There has been no shortage of exciting bets in the history of the Super Bowl, with some bettors walking away with a life-changing payout. While this isn’t always guaranteed, it certainly shows the true possibilities of accurate predictions.
Below are 5 of our favorite biggest wins in the history of betting on the Super Bowl:
Super Bowl 50 MVP
It’s extremely rare for a defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP. So when Von Miller won it after carrying the Denver Broncos to a victory in Super Bowl 50, one lucky bettor cashed in big. His $500 bet returned him $10,000 in what would become one of the most impressive predictions to date.
Patriots by 10
When the New England Patriots clashed with the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53, viewers were expecting a showdown. While this wasn’t the case, one bettor was lucky enough to place a wager on the Patriots winning by 10 points exactly. With a final score of 13-3, the bettor turned a $450 wager into $11,250.
Low Total Score
For whatever reason, one bettor seemed to know that the Patriots and Rams Super Bowl mentioned above would be a low-scoring affair. He placed a $400 bet that the total score of the game would be less than 20. When the game ended with 16 total points, he went home with $20,000 in his pocket.
Low Score, Higher Wager
The 2019 Super Bowl was full of big wins, moreso for the bettors than the teams. One bettor made the same wager as above, but bet $500 on it. This sent them home with $25,000.
Preseason NFL Betting
The 2020 Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers is one for the history books. The same can be said for one of the bets placed. One lucky bettor placed a wager that fullback Kyle Juszczyk would score a touchdown at any time in the game. While this doesn’t sound like it would pay off generously, the bettor dangerously wagered $12,727. When Juszczyk caught a touchdown late in the second quarter, the bettor was awarded a payout of $70,000.
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Be the Next Super Bowl Betting MVP
With proper planning and preparation, you can take full advantage of betting on the upcoming Super Bowl. Always remember to do thorough research, stay up to date on team and player news, and have a good strategy in place for your wagers.
If you’re looking to save and be supplied with expert betting recommendations, then sign up for our premium handicapping service. We’ll do the hard work for you and provide in-depth breakdowns and recommendations so you can focus on placing your bets and collecting your winnings.
