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Political Betting Guide for 2024
Politics is one of the most polarizing topics in the present day. With the continuous rise of social media and the transparency it gives viewers on politicians, it’s easier than ever before to gain a good understanding of what’s going on behind the scenes. But did you know that you can bet on politics?
That’s right – political betting is quickly becoming one of the most popular things to bet on. From elections, debates, and even just behaviors, there is no shortage of things to wager on.
This guide will walk you through betting on politics, and give you additional insight into how this can be a profitable form of betting for you. So, if you love betting and politics, then you’re in the right place!
How to Bet on Politics
The actual process of betting on politics is similar to that of traditional sports betting. Only a few simple steps are involved, and you can get started in a matter of minutes of reading this.
To get started betting on politics, you first need to find a sportsbook that offers political betting action. This might be a bit more difficult to find a brick-and-mortar sportsbook, but many online sportsbooks have bets available. BetUS, for example, offers a wide range of US and foreign election odds.
Once you find a sportsbook that has odds, all you need to do is create an account and make a deposit. From there, simply choose the bets you like, add them to your bet slip, and place your wager!
Just like with any other form of betting, we highly recommend doing your research and reviewing multiple sportsbooks before placing your bets. The more context into a bet you have, the better.
How Betting on Politics is Different From Betting on Sports
In one sense, betting on politics isn’t much different than betting on sports. Simply pick the scenario you feel is most likely to happen and then bet on it. However, if you zoom out, you will notice one major difference between the two types of betting.
The biggest difference between the two is how you research your bets and find value.
With sports betting, there are thousands upon thousands of statistics that you can use to find patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and more. This helps to ensure you’re making a bet that has the highest possible chance of winning.
With politics, you can’t rely on historical data as much. Instead, you have to leverage any current data or knowledge that you have in front of you. This can be polling numbers, surveys, or just basic observations. This is all factored in when the sportsbooks set the lines for certain bets.
Another big difference between betting on sports and politics is the variety of bet types you have to choose from. Traditional sports betting typically provides you with a huge selection of bet types, such as moneyline bets, totals, spreads, parlays, prop bets, and more. Political betting is a bit more straightforward, and focuses more on “this or that” type prop bets.
Why Bet on Politics?
There are many reasons why bettors should choose to bet on politics, including:
- Diversification – Betting on politics is a great way to diversify your betting portfolio and spread out your wagers. There are many political events you can bet on throughout the year, and they all offer very attractive odds.
- Potential Payout – Perhaps the best reason to bet on politics is the potential payout it provides. Setting betting lines isn’t as straightforward for politics as it is for sporting events. Therefore, sportsbooks are hesitant to list clear favorites in their odds. This gives you a greater chance of earning a big payout if you win your bet.
- Seasonality – Unlike most sports, an election year only comes around every four years. During an election year, you will see a dramatic increase in the bets available to place. This is when you can find the highest value possible with political betting.
How to Read Political Betting Odds
Political betting odds are read and understood the same way as sports betting odds. For sportsbooks that use American odds, the favored side of the bet will be represented with negative (-) odds while the underdog will be listed with positive (+) odds.
For example, let’s take a look ahead to the upcoming 2024 election. BetUS has the odds listed below:
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 |
| Joe Biden | +130 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +2500 |
Based on the odds provided by BetUS above, Donald Trump is listed as the favorite to win the upcoming election. This makes Biden the runner-up and puts RFK in third.
Payouts for the odds are also the same as sports betting. In this example, you’d need to wager $175 on Trump to win $100, and wager $100 on Biden to win $130.
Types of Political Bets
Just like with any other type of betting event, there are multiple different types of bets that you can make on political events. While some of them are straightforward, others are a bit obscure and require a fair amount of luck to win.
Outright Bets
Outright bets are the most simplified type of bet you can make for politics. Simply place your bet on who you think will win the upcoming election. This is the most popular bet for all elections, including the general election, primaries, and midterms.
The odds on outright bets tend to shift more dramatically than those for regular sporting events, so be sure to keep an eye on the news and any candidate updates that might cause a swing in odds that either favors or hurts your anticipated bet.
Outright bets can be placed on the candidates specifically or the winning party broadly.
Margin of Victory
Rather than just betting on a winner, you also have the option to bet on what the margin of victory will be. Taking the gamble on a landslide election could pay off big if it happens, but it’s far more likely that your best betting value will be found somewhere in the middle ground.
When it comes to betting on politics, there are a couple of options for voting on the margin of victory. You can choose to bet the difference between the number of electoral votes the candidates received, or you can bet on the margin between them for the popular vote.
Candidate Props
Candidate props are easily the most entertaining type of bet that you can make when betting on politics. These wagers that are not at all affected by the outcome of the election itself. Prop bets can be based on upcoming debates, campaigns, press conferences, and more.
Some popular candidate props bets over the past couple of years include:
- Estimated net worth of the next election winner
- Over/under how many times a country or person is named during a speech
- Will Joe Biden trip during his next press conference?
- Will Donald Trump test positive for drug use?
There really is no limit to the type of political prop bets you’ll find, and most of their outcomes are based on luck alone. Some of the best prop bets become available for televised events, such as debates and press conferences.
Referendum Betting
Referendum betting is less popular than the other bet types mentioned above, but it still has its place among political betting. With referendum betting, you can wager on the outcome of certain amendments or laws getting passed or denied.
Based on which state the referendum is being voted on, you can give yourself an edge by studying their other laws and policies. If a specific referendum seems to go alongside other policies and is logical for the state, you can assume it has a higher chance of being voted through.
Political Futures
The majority of political bets can typically be considered a futures bet, since betting lines become available so far ahead of the event. However, these futures cover much more than just the presidential election.
Future political bets can allow you to gamble on many things, such as the election winner, next senate leaders, next governor of specific states, and more. There is really no limit to what can be considered a futures bet when it comes to political betting, and it’s a great place to find betting value if you are someone who is up-to-date on their politics.
Political Betting Markets to Consider
When mentioning betting on politics, most people automatically assume that you’re referring to politics in the United States – and this is a fair assumption. After all, the US has the largest political betting market by far, and the US election results always have compounding effects that reach the rest of the world. With so much media attention around the election, most of the odds you find will be for US politics.
However, this doesn’t mean that you can’t find other political betting markets. Most sportsbooks that offer betting on politics also feature other markets, such as:
- UK Politics
- Australian Politics
- The EU
- Russia
Although the selection may not be as large, there are still many political betting opportunities for bettors living outside the US.
Tips for Betting on Politics
Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to betting on politics. Luckily, we have some tips here that can help you improve your chances of placing a winning bet. Remember, there is no such thing as a risk-free bet, so always double-check your bets before placing them.
Stay Informed with News Outlets
If you’re going to be betting on politics, then it’s absolutely critical you stay informed and up-to-date on what news outlets are sharing that could somehow affect your bet. Although it’s not the easiest task in the world to find a reliable news source, taking note of all the updates you do find will be crucial.
This includes but is not limited to:
- Candidate updates
- Law updates
- Economy updates
- Polling data
Use all of this information to give yourself the biggest advantage possible when placing your bets.
Use Your Brain, Not Your Heart
Politics is no different from sports betting – just betting on your favorite team or player to win all the time isn’t the best strategy. No matter how much you may like a candidate, law, or otherwise, it doesn’t always mean they have the best chance of winning.
This is why it’s important to use your brain instead of your heart, and always try to make your bets as logical as possible. The more reasoning behind why you made your bet, the better.
Shop Multiple Sportsbooks
As we mentioned above, many online sportsbooks offer betting action on politics. This means that they’re competing for the business of anyone interested in political betting.
This creates a perfect opportunity for bettors like yourselves to shop around multiple different sportsbooks to see which one is offering the best odds for the bets you want to place. Sportsbooks also offer welcome bonuses that you can claim to pad your bankroll, and these bonuses vary from one sportsbook to another.
Remember, many things can cause shifting odds when it comes to political betting, so be sure to check back regularly to these sportsbooks before you place a bet.
Know When to Bet
Knowing when to bet is just as important as knowing what to bet. For example, if you’re planning on placing a bet for Donald Trump to win the 2024 election, you wouldn’t want to place the bet right after his odds made him a larger favorite. Instead, it makes sense to wait until the odds become more profitable, such as after bad publicity or a verdict reading.
Of course, this is a guessing game for all bettors. But, there is a ton of value in simply understanding when isn’t the best time to place your bets.
Make Political Betting Profitable
Betting on politics can be a very fun, exciting, and profitable experience. People who follow the news and politics closely can find a lot of success from, and there is never a shortage of things to bet on.
Just like with any other form of betting, it’s important to do your research and manage your bankroll appropriately. Always keep an eye on your budget and don’t chase your losses.
If you’re looking for an extra edge over the sportsbook, don’t hesitate to check out our premium handicapping service. We can help provide you with all the data and context needed to place the best bets possible.
