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It’s almost hard to imagine that among the best football players in the world there are NFL teams that average barely more than two touchdowns per game. For much of the past two decades, the lowest scoring team in the NFL has averaged between 14 and 17 points.
There are a number of reasons why, but it usually starts with the quarterback. Injuries during the season can also be a factor that leads to a low scoring offense. Which team will suffer the curse of leading the league in fewest points in 2021?
Houston, We Have a Problem
The Houston Texans biggest problem – they have many – is the status of Deshaun Watson. The Houston quarterback has been battling off-the-field issues and is still looking to be traded. That leaves NFL journeyman Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback backed up by either Davis Mills or Jeff Driskel. That’s not good. Neither was trading away one of the NFL’s best receivers in DeAndre Hopkins. Allowing J.J. Watt to leave probably wasn’t a great move either. Last year, the Texans averaged a middle-of-the- road 24 points per game. Without Watson, they won’t come close to that.
That is why Houston is favored at +400 to be the lowest scoring team in the NFL this season.
Train Wreck
The New York Jets were the worst-scoring team in the NFL last season averaging 15.2 points per game in 2020. The year before in 2019, the Jets were the second-worst scoring team in the league averaging 17.2 points per game.
Now, the Jets have a new head coach in Robert Saleh, but he is a defensive-minded coach and will want to stress running the football. He’ll also want to stress running the ball while rookie QB Zach Wilson gets acclimated to being an NFL quarterback. The offense really doesn’t put a scare into anyone which is why they are listed at +800.
Dumpster Fire
A year ago, the Detroit Lions had Matthew Stafford at quarterback and averaged 23.6 points per game. Now, the Lions have a new head coach in Dan Campbell and a new quarterback in Jared Goff. If there is an offense on paper that looks less scary than the Jets, it’s the Lions.
Breshad Perriman, Quintez Cephus, and Tyrell Williams are Goff’s receivers with D’Andre Swift at running back. Not exactly household names. It’s no surprise then that Detroit is listed right behind Houston at +600.
Worth Considering
Jacksonville has been one of the poorer scoring teams in the NFL for the last three seasons. That should change though under new head coach Urban Meyer. The New York Giants (+1400) were right behind the Jets last year at 17.5 points per game. The Giants will get RB Saquon Barkley back which will give QB Daniel Jones another weapon.
Cincinnati (+1400) has been in the top five in each of the past two seasons. They will have QB Joe Burrow back as well as some new faces – WR Ja’Marr Chase – on the offense.
The team to watch though is Chicago. The Bears were 10th in the league in scoring in 2018, head coach Matt Nagy’s first year. Chicago won a division title that year, but it has been all downhill since then. The Bears finished 23rd in scoring last year (22.4) and will be challenged in 2021.
Rookie QB Justin Fields will start the season as the backup. At the first signs of a failing offense, Andy Dalton will come to the bench and Fields will be thrust into action. When that happens, it won’t be pretty. RB David Montgomery is a solid runner and WR Allen Robinson II is a quality pass catcher. Other than that, the Bears just don’t have much and their offensive line allowed 36 sacks. That could spell disaster making +1200 sound enticing.
2021 NFL Lowest Scoring Team Odds
Houston Texans +400
Detroit Lions +600
New York Jets +800
Jacksonville Jaguars +1200
Chicago Bears +1200
Philadelphia Eagles +1400
New York Giants +1400
Cincinnati Bengals +1400
Washington FT +1800
New England Patriots +2000
Miami Dolphins +2000
Denver Broncos +2000
Carolina Panthers +2000
Las Vegas Raiders +2200
Indianapolis Colts +2500
Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
Atlanta Falcons +2800
Tennessee Titans +4000
New Orleans Saints +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Los Angeles Chargers +4000
Baltimore Ravens +5000
San Francisco 49ers +5000
Green Bay Packers +5000
Seattle Seahawks +5000
Arizona Cardinals +5000
Los Angeles Rams +6500
Cleveland Browns +8000
Dallas Cowboys +8000
Buffalo Bills +10000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15000
Kansas City Chiefs +25000
