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With the Stanley Cup playoffs down to four teams, the race for the Conn Smythe Trophy – given annually to the Most Valuable Player in the postseason – is heating up.
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Heading into a new week, both series – Islanders-Lightning and Canadiens-Golden Knights – are locked up at 2-2. Of the eight total games played, six were decided by a single goal. Goaltending has been outstanding and all four starting goalies are high on the board. There is, however, a surprise favorite. Here’s a look at the 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy odds and the pick to win it all.
Surprise Favorite
The overall favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy is Vegas forward Alex Pietrangelo. He has just 11 points in the postseason, but three of his four postseason goals have come in the semifinals series with Montreal. Pietrangelo scored twice in Game 3 and once in Game 4 (both Vegas losses, by the way).
Pietrangelo is listed at +275 and may be getting hot at the right time. With the quality of goaltending in these two semifinals series, it’s hard to see a player who isn’t even in the postseason top-10 in scoring winning the Conn Smythe.
Goaltending Prevails
All four starting goalies are listed among the top seven on the Conn Smythe betting board. Leading the way is Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy (+400). The Lightning netminder is 10-5 in the playoffs with a 2.19 goals against average and a .933 save percentage. He and his teammates are also the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Though his 9-6 record may not show it, Marc-Andre Fleury (+550) of Vegas has been outstanding in the postseason. He has kept the Knights in games with a 1.97 GAA and a .934 save percentage. Both of those numbers are the best among the four remaining goalies. Vegas is still favored at +130 to win this year’s Stanley Cup and Fleury is a big part of the reason why.
Montreal has surprised everyone by advancing to the semifinals. One of the reasons why is related to the goaltending of Carey Price (+750). The former Vezina and Hart Memorial Trophy winner is 10-5 in the playoffs. Price has a 2.09 GAA and a .931 save percentage.
The Islanders will give Vegas a run for its money as the best defensive team in hockey. New York prevents a lot of shots and behind it all is goalie Semyon Varlamov (+600). He is 6-5 this postseason with a 2.53 GAA and a .923 save percentage.
Don’t Forget the Scorers
It was 2012 the last time a goaltender won the Conn Smythe. Last year, it was Tampa Bay D Victor Hedman that won it. Hedman is given +2000 odds to win it again this year. He has 14 points (1 goal) thus far.
His teammates, Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, probably have a better shot at winning the award this year. Kucherov leads all postseason scorers with 24 points. Point has 16 and a playoff-high 12 goals. Kucherov is listed at +475 and Point comes in at +500.
The Pick
With Vegas as the overall favorite and the trend of non-goalies dominating the award, it’s easy to see why Pietrangelo is the favorite. But, these final playoff series will be about one thing – defense.
That puts the burden on goaltending and each of the four goalies remaining is priced right. There is value on each, but the nod goes to Fleury. His GAA and save percentage point to more wins for Vegas and with a Stanley Cup no player will be more deserving of the Conn Smythe Trophy than Fleury.
Odds to Win 2021 Conn Smythe Trophy
Alex Pietrangelo +275
Andrei Vasilevskiy +400
Nikita Kucherov +475
Brayden Point +500
Marc-Andre Fleury +550
Semyon Varlamov +600
Carey Price +750
Mathew Barzal +1000
Robin Lehner +1200
Mark Stone +1800
Max Pacioretty +2000
Victor Hedman +2000
Jonathan Marchessault +2800
Steven Stamkos +2800
Tyler Toffoli +3300
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