2023 AFC Championship Game Odds and Picks

The 2023 AFC Championship Game is on Sunday at 6:30 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) will host the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4). KC are 8-1 at home, but only 3-6 ATS, however, the point spread is so low that if KC wins, they’ll push ATS at worst.

Where to Bet on the AFC Championship Game

Cincy are 7-3 (8-2 ATS) on the road, including a win over the Bills (27-10) in the Divisional Round. The Bengals also defeated Baltimore in the Wild Card Round (24-17).

The Chiefs defeated the Jaguars (27-20) in the Divisional Round. Patrick Mahomes left the game at one point due to a high-ankle sprain, but he returned and is expected to start on Sunday.

2023 AFC Championship Game Betting Lines

Here are the current betting odds for the Bengals vs. Chiefs match-up:

Money Line: Bengals (-105) vs. Chiefs (-115)

Point Spread: Bengals +1 (-110) vs. Chiefs -1 (-110)

Game Total: Over 47.5 (-110) vs. Under 47.5 (-110)

The Chiefs opened at -1.5, but the Bengals are getting most of the early action.

NFL Betting Lines

2023 AFC Championship Game Preview

This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Bengals won in overtime (27-24) last year. Joe Burrow is now a perfect 3-0 against Mahomes and the Chiefs since January 2022.

Dating back further, the Bengals are 8-2 in the last ten H2H games.

Kansas City are a high-scoring team (29.2 PPG – 1st) that air it out (297.8 PYPG – 1st), but they struggle to gain yards on the ground (115.9 RYPG – 20th). KC also rank 24th in turnovers with 23.

This will be a tough match-up for Cincy, as they rank 23rd against the pass (229.1 PYPG). The Bengals are only allowing 106.6 RYPG (7th) and 20.1 PPG (6th), but the secondary is going to be tested.

Cincinnati have a similar offense to KC. The Bengals offense averages 265 PYPG (5th) and 26.1 PPG (7th). They’ve also struggled to get much going on the ground this season (95.5 RYPG – 29th).

The Chiefs defense hasn’t been strong this season. They’re allowing 107.2 RYPG (8th), 220.9 PYPG (18th) and 21.7 PPG (16th). The Bengals offense shouldn’t have a problem moving the football.

NFL Predictions

2023 AFC Championship Game Predictions

Here are my best bets for the 2023 AFC Championship Game:

Best Bet: Bengals ML (-105)

Burrow seems to have the Chiefs’ number thus far in his career. The Bengals are also a much more dominant defense that were able to essentially shutdown the entire Bills offense last week.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 Points (-110)

The three recent H2H games have each had 51+ points scored. I expect another high-scoring game that the Bengals will win. The Bengals will make the necessary stops on defense to win this game.

The Chiefs defense will be what costs them another shot at a Super Bowl.