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There were four teams in the AFC (American Football Conference) which had a record as good or better than the Kansas City Chiefs last season. That cost them an opportunity to host the conference title game. But they did demonstrate that they could go on the road and beat the #1 seed (Baltimore).
Even so, it is always advantageous for a team to win as many games as possible so that they can be in that position to let the weather – if that’s a factor -work to THEIR benefit.
The Chiefs have just won their third Super Bowl in a five-season period, so there is little argument that they are the team everybody is taking aim at. But that doesn’t carry all the weight in the world when it comes to how many games they are going to win in the regular season. After all, the Ravens had 13 victories despite playing in a division (the AFC North) where every team finished over .500. And once again, Lamar Jackson, winner of two MVP awards, fell short when it came to his quest to make it to the Big Game.
Let’s go team-by-team and look at the total wins prop (regular season only) for each AFC squad. We’ve listed the straight-up and spread records for each, along with the non-division opponents they will play away from home.
AFC Predictions: Team-by-Team Analysis
Baltimore Ravens
2023 Record: 13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 11 Wins -120
- Under 11 Wins -110
If Derrick Henry in any way resembles the running back around whom Tennessee based its ground attack for years, this is going to be a very difficult offense to deal with. Of course, we are not altogether sure that’s going to happen. One problem for Lamar Jackson will be getting enough production from his wide receiver group. Patrick Queen has left the linebacker corps, but the addition of Roquan Smith was a smashing success last year.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: There are some interesting road games when Baltimore leaves the division, including visits to Kansas City, Dallas, Tampa Bay and, of course, the Los Angeles Chargers, where it is brother vs. brother. We have enough confidence in John Harbaugh to make an OVER call here. The defense (which allowed fewer points than anyone in the NFL) is just that good.
Buffalo Bills
2023 Record: 11-6 SU, 7-10 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 10.5 Wins +110
- Under 10.5 Wins -140
For the Bills, the biggest challenge for quarterback Josh Allen will be how he’ll deal with the loss of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. They have added Chase Claypool and Marquez Valdez Scantling for support, but Buffalo seems to be expecting an awful lot out of rookie Keon Coleman, who has a great size-speed combination. Sean McDermott can pound the ball with running back James Cook, who finished second in the league with 1262 yards, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Bills allowed 4.7 yards per rush attempt last season.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Buffalo Bills
Prediction: This team was just 4-5 on the road, so it’s got to raise something of a concern that they have to travel to Baltimore, Houston, Seattle, Indianapolis, Detroit, and the Los Angeles Rams. If we had to go one way or the other, we’d lean toward the UNDER.
The top 25 plays from the 2023 season! ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/K6Jfw8NYNk
— NFL (@NFL) June 1, 2024
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Record: 9-8 SU, 7-8-2 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 10.5 Wins -135
- Under 10.5 Wins +105
There are some concerns with the broad receiver group here. Tyler Boyd wanted to leave town, but he was gone. Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase were not at the OTA’s. And they want to get paid. Joe Burrow is, of course, coming off an injury. Zack Moss will have to assume the rushing load after Joe Mixon left, and this team was last in the NFL in rushing in 2023. They were also last in an essential category of pass defense, allowing 7.6 yards per attempt.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Games at Kansas City and Dallas will be difficult to win in the non-division schedule, and all indications to me are enough to make an UNDER recommendation.
Cleveland Browns
2023 Record: 11-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins -145
- Under 8.5 Wins +115
Statistically, this was the top defense in the NFL last season. Can it stay that way? Deshaun Watson is still in recovery from his shoulder injury. Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley are the backups. Getting Nick Chubb back into action is perhaps more critical, as it could allow Cleveland to have a dominant ground attack with him in good health.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Sure, in non-division games, they have to travel to Philadelphia and Jacksonville, but that is navigable. We are OK with the price on the OVER because we consider the Browns to be better than a .500 team. But we’d be happier if we knew more about Chubb’s status.
Denver Broncos
2023 Record: 8-9 SU, 6-10-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 5.5 Wins -140
- Under 5.5 Wins +110
Well here you have “Wilson out” and “Wilson in.” Russell Wilson was sent on his way, landing in Pittsburgh. Zach Wilson is in the quarterback room at the moment.. We don’t know if Zach is going to wind up starting some games, because Sean Payton has indicated there’s going to be a QB competition. But you don’t spend a first round pick on Bo Nix and not give him an opportunity to play as soon as possible, short-arming like Drew Brees used to.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Denver Broncos
Prediction: Running the ball with Javonte Williams and Audric Estime is going to be critical. Denver‘s defense allowed 371 yards per game, including 70 to Miami, but did respond as the season progressed. Non-division road games at Baltimore, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and the New York Jets will provide an obstacle, but there’s enough material here to go OVER the 5.5 total.
Burrow vs. Mahomes in the 2022 AFC Championship was must watch TV 🔥 Now we get to see them face off again in Week 2 👏 pic.twitter.com/1p923HDQEV
— NFL (@NFL) June 1, 2024
Houston Texans
2023 Record: 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 9.5 Wins -150
- Under 9.5 Wins +120
We see this team on an upward trajectory. CJ Stroud is very much for real. And it was phenomenal that a rookie threw only five interceptions while leading his team to the playoffs. More talent has arrived, and the addition of Stefon Diggs makes this a very dynamic wide receiver room. They’ll rush the passer better with Danielle Hunter and DeNico Autry. Remember that head coach DeMeco Ryans has a defensive background.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Houston Texans
Prediction: The Texans will visit Green Bay, Dallas, Kansas City and the Jets. To get to ten wins, it’s -150. The OVER is very achievable.
Indianapolis Colts
2023 Record: 9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins -105
- Under 8.5 Wins -125
Well, Anthony Richardson ran into a roadblock last season when he got hurt, so he’ll have to start his development all over again. Jonathan Taylor went from a 2021 season where he had 1811 yards and a 5.5-yard average to 741 yards and 4.4 just a couple of seasons later. Can he once again take this offense over?
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: The Colts were in playoff contention last season with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Although the most challenging road games outside of the division are at Green Bay and the New York Jets, we are still a little skeptical about Indianapolis because they’ll have to endure growing pains with Richardson. So it’s a mild recommendation on the UNDER for us.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Record: 9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins -125
- Under 8.5 Wins -105
Calvin Ridley has moved on, but Jacksonville may have upgraded its wide receiver collection by signing Gabe Davis and drafting Brian Thomas. Trevor Lawrence had a rather disappointing 21–14 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, but what makes this Jaguars offense dangerous is the emergence of tight end Evan Engram, who obviously wasn’t used well by the Giants but caught 114 passes in 2023.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: The Jags will find themselves behind the eight ball in non-division road trips to Miami, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Detroit. But we can certainly see them challenging in the division. So we are moving with the OVER.
.@JJWatt was the 2014 DPOY with 20.5 sacks…
— NFL (@NFL) June 1, 2024
And low key had 3 OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS?! 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/MP39fgIoMA
Kansas City Chiefs
2023 Record: 11-6 SU, 9-7-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 11.5 Wins -130
- Under 11.5 Wins +100
Everyone knows how strong they are, although they saved their best for the postseason on their way to their third Super Bowl victory in the Patrick Mahomes era. What you like to see with a team like this is whether it addresses some perceived weaknesses. One of those, naturally, was threatening opposing secondaries deep. They may have dealt with that by signing Marquise Smith and drafting Xavier Worthy, who set a record in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. But the possible suspension of Rashee Rice still looms. The offensive line is still potentially shaky, but the defense isn’t.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: They’ll go to San Francisco, Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, but we’re not sure there’s a whole lot of panic about there. We know they are capable, so we’re siding with the OVER.
Las Vegas Raiders
2023 Record: 8-9 SU, 10-6-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 6.5 Wins -150
- Under 6.5 Wins +120
The Raiders added a couple of players who are going to be very useful. Brock Bowers, the first-round draft choice, brings some versatility to the offense – at least, that’s what everybody says. And Christian Wilkins is a solid presence in the middle of the defensive line. Antonio Pierce has brought some enthusiasm back. But who will quarterback this team? It would seem that Gardner Minshew, who almost got Indianapolis to the playoffs and made the Pro Bowl, is a logical choice. But Pierce may want to continue to give Aidan O’Connell the opportunity. We wouldn’t be surprised if that happened.
That uncertainty is a bit unsettling. They’ve got some tough road games, not even including teams in their own division. The Silver and Black will visit Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans, in addition to a game against the Rams.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Las Vegas Raiders
Prediction: We don’t feel too strongly about this, but we don’t really want to lay -150 with the over. So we’re slightly UNDER, if forced to a decision.
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Record: 5-12 SU, 6-11 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins -150
- Under 8.5 Wins +120
Jim Harbaugh came into the situation and made some personnel changes. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are no longer part of the picture. Harbaugh will try to play some smashmouth and has former Baltimore running backs Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins as part of his committee. Some people have had an issue with drafting OT Joe Alt in the first round. But hey, if you want to run the ball, you’ve got to start with some strength on the offensive line.
We’re giving Harbaugh a lot of our confidence, and the schedule is not prohibitive, as their two toughest non-division road games are at Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Los Angeles Chargers
Prediction: They’ll be the principal competition for the Chiefs in the AFC West. OVER.
The man who put the McCaffrey name on the map 👏 @87ed pic.twitter.com/ys2jx9Ezu4
— NFL (@NFL) May 31, 2024
Miami Dolphins
2023 Record: 11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 9.5 Wins -140
- Under 9.5 Wins +110
Who knows what the fate of the Dolphins would have been if they had been able to host that playoff game against Kansas City? It goes to show that you have to win as many games as you can, and Miami mailed it in a couple of times. They paid for it. One of the top offenses in the NFL added Odell Beckham Jr. to the broad receiver mix (as if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle weren’t enough to deal with), and made some moves to shore up the secondary, with Kendall Fuller and Jordan Poyer added.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Non-division road games will be played in Seattle, Indianapolis, the Rams, Green Bay, Houston, and Cleveland. They can handle that. Let’s go OVER here.
New England Patriots
2023 Record: 4-13 SU, 5-11-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 4.5 Wins -165
- Under 4.5 Wins +135
It would appear that the plan is to let first-round pick Drake Maye sit for a while as Jacoby Brissett minds the store. New coach Jared Mayo just doesn’t have enough support on offense, with the interior line or receivers, to put behind this kid right now. But he’ll play eventually, and that’s why New England has to base its offense on running the ball. To that end, they added some depth in the backfield. And the defense isn’t half bad, ranking sixth overall in the NFL last season.
But they will still plod along on offense. Non-division road games take place in San Francisco, Chicago, and Cincinnati. That’s not so bad.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our New England Patriots
Prediction: Prediction: But we’d rather be sitting with a +135 price on the UNDER, which is a slight recommendation.
New York Jets
2023 Record: 7-10 SU, 6-10-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 9.5 Wins -150
- Under 9.5 Wins +120
This team has not made the playoffs for the last thirteen seasons. But star cornerback Sauce Gardner says that they have everything they need to go on a legitimate Super Bowl run. Aaron Rodgers has shown his support for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, which probably saved Hackett’s position. Malachi Corley might wind up being an integral addition at wide receiver. Don’t forget that Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard from A.R.’s Green Bay days are on hand. A key for the Jets is that their defense is very solid, ranking second in the NFL last season and allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. That’s what kept these guys in enough games to score seven wins last season.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our New York Jets
Prediction: Outside of the AFC East, they’ll pay a visit to San Francisco, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. If they can stay healthy, they have a real opportunity to go OVER that 9.5-win total.
We're baaaaaack… 😉 pic.twitter.com/YKvO34Gy4u
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) May 31, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 Record: 10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins +135
- Under 8.5 Wins -165
Russell Wilson is the new quarterback, and it could be a better quarterback situation than the Steelers have seen in the last several years, going back to when Big Ben was in decline. Jaylen Warren had the second-best per-carry average among running backs last season, so he and Najee Harris ought to provide a lot of rushing support. And they’ve got a ground-and-pound offensive coordinator to do that with Arthur Smith, who was recently fired from Atlanta.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: The Steelers will visit the Falcons, in addition to the Colts and Eagles. They need to step up their game on defense. That’s not necessarily a quantum leap. And keep in mind that head coach Mike Tomlin has not suffered a losing season in his 17 years on the job. OVER.
Tennessee Titans
2023 Record: 6-11 SU, 7-9-1 ATS
2024 Over-Under Regular Season Wins
- Over 5.5 Wins -105
- Under 5.5 Wins -125
Tennessee moves forward without Derrick Henry, but in the new look, they have added some offensive weapons with RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, and WR Tyler Boyd. Will Levis showed some great promise as a rookie quarterback. Obviously, there are some holes in this team, and one of them is the offensive line, which should be an ongoing project for new head coach Brian Callahan, who brings along his father, Bill, a legendary offensive line coach, who takes that challenge head-on.
There are some tough road games outside of the AFC South, as they go to Buffalo, Detroit and Miami, along with Chicago and the LA Chargers.
For more detailed analysis and updates, visit our Tennessee Titans
Prediction: We kind of like Levis, and see this is a team that can surprise, IF he can take the next step The threshold is reasonable. So we’re on the OVER.
The 2024 NFL season promises to be exciting, with many teams in the AFC expected to perform strongly. By analyzing each team’s strengths and weaknesses, we can make educated AFC predictions in the NFL for over-under regular season win bets. Whether you’re a bettor or a fan, these insights will help you navigate the upcoming season with confidence.
