An Early Look at Betting 2021 Kentucky Derby Futures

This season’s Kentucky Derby prep schedule came to a close last Saturday with the running of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. This also marked the start of the official countdown to annual ‘Run for the Roses’ at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 1.

With the list of contenders in place for the 20-horse field that makes up each year’s Kentucky Derby, many of the top-rated online sportsbooks taking action on this race have updated their futures odds to win.

Tips for Betting the Kentucky Derby

Talent runs deep in this year’s projected field with betting value far down the list. The following three-year old Thoroughbreds comprise the top portion of the betting board:

Essential Quality +300

Rock Your World +600

Known Agenda +800

Concert Tour +1000

Hot Rod Charlie +1000

Highly Motivated +1200

Medina Spirit +1600

Betting the Favorite

Expert Horse Racing Betting Guide

If you are looking to go chalk in this year’s Kentucky Derby, you cannot go wrong with Essential Quality as the early favorite. Trained by Brad Cox, this three-year old Kentucky-bred colt has passed every major test it has faced going back to a victory at Keeneland in the 2020 Breeders’ Futurity in his first major graded event.

The son of Tapit also won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at that same track as a champion two- year old. He made his three-year old debut at Oaklawn Park with a victory in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 27.

Cox decided to return to Keeneland for his final prep and he did not disappoint. Essential Quality increased his current winning streak to five with a victory in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes on April 3. He covered the 1 1/8 miles on dirt in 1:48.50 past Highly Motivated and Rombauer as two other Kentucky Derby contenders.

High Valued Contender

If you are looking for the best betting value on this short list, my top pick would be Hot Rod Charlie at +1000 odds. Trained by Doug O’Neill, this is another Kentucky-bred three-year old with an impressive resume.

Flying under the radar as a two-year old, the son of Oxbow quickly captured bettor’s attention with a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Essential Quality. Moving to the West Coast for the start of his three-year old campaign, he slipped to third behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 30.

O’Neill kept him idle for the month of February to train for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 20. That strategy paid off with a victory in that race over Midnight Bourbon as the favorite. Hot Rod Charlie has now finished in the money in each of his last four starts.

Learn How to Bet on Kentucky Derby Trifectas

A Live Longshot to Watch

One colt at longer odds that deserves a closer look is Super Stock at +2800 on the Kentucky Derby futures board. This three-year colt only has a pair of victories in eight career races but the biggest win came earlier this month in the $1 million Arkansas Derby.

Sired by Dialed In, he covered the 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Oaklawn in 1:50.92 past Caddo River and Concert Tour as the heavy favorite.

In his best race as a juvenile, he placed third in the Breeders’ Futurity behind Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind.