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Home runs are a big part of the game of baseball.
That’s not a news flash. It’s the way the game is being played. What was a little surprising to find out was that homers have become less of a part of the offense since 2019.
Example – home runs constituted 16.1% of all hits and 28.9% of all runs in 2019, and this year those figures are 15% and 26.8%, respectively.
Still, since hitters, as a rule, have been trying to rocket-launch the horsehide over the fence with the trajectory of their swing, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to conclude that a pitcher can get a leg up if he can keep it in the ballpark.
And that is one of the factors we’ll take a look at as we focus on MLB first five-innings props.
MLB 1st 5 Innings Picks for August 7th 2021
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Predictions
DIAMONDBACKS VS. PADRES – FIRST 5 INNINGS: OVER 4.5 RUNS (-105)
Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish (SD) vs. Taylor Widener (ARIZ)
Time: 8:40 PM ET
Yu Darvish (7-6, 3.48 ERA) has actually not won a decision since June 21. But Widener hasn’t won a game since his first start on April 4.
Darvish has allowed 1.4 homers per nine innings, and that translates to 0.78 HR per five-innings stint. Lately he’s been more permissive, surrendering nine long balls in his last 25-2/3 innings.
This projected Arizona lineup has hit .340 against him, with eight HR’s in 113 plate appearances. Since his average batters faced per game is 23.28, there is a good chance he’ll get reached.
Widener has allowed nine homers in 41 innings. Over every five innings, he’s yielded 1.1 home runs. And opponents have hit four against him in his last 12-2/3 frames, during which time he’s given up 15 earned runs.
Giants vs. Brewers Predictions
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – FIRST 5 INNINGS: UNDER 1.5 RUNS (-105)
Opposing Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers)
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Brandon Woodruff has quite simply been one of the National League’s best pitchers, and his 2.26 ERA indicates that he’s much better than his 7-6 record.
He keeps the ball in the park; that’s for certain. over his last six starts, encompassing 36-1/3 innings, he’s surrendered only one round-tripper. Overall, his home run rate is sixth best in the major leagues.
The Giants are #1 in the majors in homers, so it appears that Woodruff neutralizes what San Francisco depends upon most heavily.
Woodruff also “owns” recent Giants arrival Kris Bryant, limiting him to two hits in 20 at bats with ten strikeouts. Our expected runs for him here is 1.26.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS — FIRST 5 INNINGS: OVER 2.5 RUNS (-140)
Opposing Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez (San Francisco Giants)
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Back to the Giants-Brewers game, where we just don;t see a lot of home run opportunities. Aaron Sanchez is 1-1 with a 2.97 ERA, and he can be a very important part of a pennant winner, if he continues to hold on to current form.
Some may forget that in 2016, Sanchez led the American League in winning percentage, ERA and yes, fewest homers allowed per nine innings.
From that perspective, he’s stingier now. He’s thrown just two gopher balls in 33-1/3 innings. And in 67 plate appearances against him, Brewers hitters have had two homers but just three extra base hits overall.
Marlins vs. Rockies Prediction
MARLINS vs. ROCKIES – FIRST 5 INNINGS: OVER 6 RUNS (-110)
Starting Pitchers: Jesus Luzardo (MIA) vs. Austin Gomber (COL)
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Neither of these guys is immune to throwing up the gopher ball. But Luzardo, who came to Miami from Oakland in a trade, is especially susceptible, yielding 12 in 43 innings, which converts to 1.4 per five-inning outing. It’s tough to keep a score down that way.
Luzardo’s fly ball rate is high (30%). And he pitches to a .909 OPS. Gomber’s fly ball rate is higher than the MLB average as well (26.4%).
And here’s something really interesting – if you put together the results of these guys against the opposing hitters they’re likely to face, they have surrendered a combined .412 average (14 for 34).
Read our MLB team totals betting strategy guide.
