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We were pretty confident that the Los Angeles Clippers could bounce back and win Game 3 of their NBA Western Conference playoff series against the Phoenix Suns. And that’s what happened. Can they repeat that? And if so, can they extend the margin?
And how much help can they get from Paul George, who is the only superstar they have left standing as long as Kawhi Leonard is injured?
We explore these questions for sports bettors as we talk about a couple of our props for this game.Keep in mind that when we play a prop, it doesn’t mean it has a better-than-even chance of winning, but that there is some value relative to what the price is.
Suns vs. Clippers Game 4 Betting Preview
Okay, here we go:
PAUL GEORGE OVER 31.5 POINTS (-110)
Even in the double-digit Clipper victory in Game 3, George came up short of this figure. That’s primarily because he made just nine of 26 shots. But at least he didn’t brick at the free throw line, hitting six of seven. PG13 is generally considered to be a formidable defender, and there is always the risk of him expending himself at that end of the floor in a way that would affect his offensive numbers. But with Kawhi Leonard out of L.A. lineup with a knee injury, it is invariable that George take on more responsibility in putting points on the board.
And don’t think he doesn’t know it. When examining these NBA player props, one of the numbers I like to look at is the “Usage” figure, which explains what percentage of the team’s offensive plays the player is directly involved. And when you’re talking about a guy who is primarily a scorer, that usually means how often he is shooting the ball.
In the series against the Dallas Mavericks, when Leonard was in the lineup and healthy, George had a Usage rate of 27%. But in this series, that figure has been 36.6%. And of course, that’s no accident.
So what does that mean for us? It means that in a situation like this, no matter what, George is going to get his shots. And if the opponent forces him into bad shots, it may bring down the offense, but it won’t usually change the number of times he’s launching it. He’s averaging 29 points throughout the first three games of this series against Phoenix, so if he can improve what has been a poor three-point output (32.4%), he’s going to get us there.
CLIPPERS TO WIN BY 1-5 POINTS (+425)
By now, we are operating under the assumption that Kawhi Leonard is not going to be available for Game 4. Of course, the Clippers were able to win their game without him. And for what it’s worth, they have come back from 0-2 deficits in each of the two series they’ve played.
Sure, we’ll see if the Suns can make the kind of adjustments that would appear necessary. Defensively, they were okay, as they held George (see above) to nine field goals in 26 attempts. And the Clippers didn’t exactly run wild from three-point territory (12 of 34).
But how much can the Suns rebound offensively? They got 25% combined shooting from their backcourt as Chris Paul returned from the COVID protocol. But you know, Devin Booker was playing with a protective mask because of a broken nose and he has shot ten of 37 the last two games.
Of course, you saw a 14-point L.A. win in Game 3, and that would have brought a nice payout. But truth be told, Phoenix is too good a team to be blown away again, especially with the other team leaving them in the dust in the second half.
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