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Heading into the big Thanksgiving holiday weekend, almost every game on Sunday’s NFL slate in Week 12 has ramifications for this season’s playoffs.
Last Sunday in the NFL, the total stayed UNDER in eight of the 13 games with scoring at a premium in several contests. Going through the stats, facts and recent trends for this Sunday’s lineup, here are my Top 5 plays on the NFL total line.
Jets at Texans Week 12 Total
Best Bet: OVER 44
Jets and the Texans have combined for just four straight-up wins this year, but each team has pulled off some big upsets. New York is coming off a tough 24-17 loss to Miami while Houston stunned Tennessee 22-13 as a 10-point road underdog.
The total has gone OVER in nine of the Jets’ last 10 AFC games and it has gone OVER in four of their last five games overall. In the absence of a stifling defense on Sunday by either team, look for the total to go OVER the current line.
Titans at Patriots Week 12 Total
Titans vs. Patriots Prediction
Best Bet: UNDER 44.5
With the Titans still reeling from the loss to Houston, it will be tough to bounce back against a hot Patriots’ team on the road. New England has won its last five games both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in two of the last three contests.
The total has stayed UNDER in five of New England’s last six games played in the month of November. Given the elevated play of its defense the past few weeks, betting the UNDER in this game offers the best value in the betting lines.
Steelers at Bengals Week 12 Total
Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction
Best Bet: OVER 45.5
This is a crucial matchup in the crowded race for the AFC North Division title. Pittsburgh just scored 37 points but still lost to the Los Angeles Chargers after giving up 41 points. Cincinnati scored 32 points in its lopsided victory against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Each of these teams should be able to put quite a few points on the board in this game. While the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last 10 meetings, current scoring trends for each team point to a higher scoring affair this time around.
Chargers at Broncos Week 12 Total
Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction
Best Bet: OVER 48
The Chargers have won most of their six games this season by simply outscoring their opponent as opposed to shutting them down on defense. Case in point is the 37 points allowed in the recent win over Pittsburgh. Denver gave up 30 points in a recent loss to Philadelphia.
The total has gone OVER in four of the Chargers’ last six games. It has also gone OVER in six of their last eight games played in November. Look for LA to score the bulk of the points this Sunday with Denver kicking in enough scoring to take the total OVER.
Vikings at 49ers Week 12 Total
Best Bet: OVER 48.5
The Vikings are another team that wins games by outscoring their opponent. They just put up 34 points in a wild three-point victory against Green Bay. The 49ers are coming off a 30-point effort in a 20-point victory over Jacksonville.
While the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings between these two NFC teams, it has gone OVER in the 49ers’ last five games against the NFC North. The total has also gone OVER in six of Minnesota’s last seven road games.
