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Underdogs once again had a solid week against the spread moving dogs to 38-26 ATS for the season. Those dogs went 8-8 ATS last week. Week 5 offers plenty of opportunities for underdogs again. Regardless, a number of interesting matchups give bettors several opportunities to cash in. Here’s a look at the top five NFL Week 5 ATS picks.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans were a touchdown favorite until they laid an egg and lost in overtime to the Jets last week. The only reason Tennessee did lose was mistakes – 5-of-19 on third down, seven sacks, 98 penalty yards – and inefficiency (2-of-5 red zone chances).
Tennessee was missing both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. They both should be ready to go this week. The Titans have won seven of eight against the Jags and have covered the spread in six of those eight games. Four of Tennessee’s seven wins over Jacksonville have been by three touchdowns or more.
Derrick Henry will pound this Jags defense into oblivion. This line should have never fallen so far. Grab the Titans at -4 before the line moves again.
Best ATS Pick: TITANS -4
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys defense are difference makers in this NFC East matchup on Sunday. Prescott was solid in last week’s win over Carolina completing 14-of-22 passes for 188 yards and four touchdowns.
The reason he didn’t need to throw as much is because the Cowboys running game – led by Ezekiel Elliott – is tearing it up. Dallas ranks second in the NFL in rushing offense averaging 165.8 yards per game. As a result, the Cowboys have scored 30-plus points in back-to-back games thanks to a balanced attack.
The defense is improving under new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. Dallas ranks sixth against the run (81.0 ypg) and looks to gang up on the Giants Saquon Barkley. Giants QB Daniel Jones had himself a game last week (402 yards passing, 2 TDs), but he is still the same quarterback that averages nearly 1.5 turnovers per game.
Best ATS Pick: COWBOYS -7
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Football Team
The Saints blew a 21-10 lead last week against the Giants allowing a number of costly mistakes to give New York a 27-21 win in overtime. Washington had a hard time beating an Atlanta team that is, well, not good. The Football Team needed a kickoff return TD and two scores in the game’s final 3:52 to win 34-30.
Here’s the deal with the Saints. Under head coach Sean Payton, they are very good when they play after a loss. In Payton’s career, New Orleans is 48-26 ATS after a loss. In games outside of their home Superdome, those numbers are 25-10 ATS.
Best ATS Pick: SAINTS -2
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
The line on this game opened at 6.5. It’s now at New England -9 and could go higher. That’s how bad Houston is with rookie QB Davis Mills.
In two starts, Mills has gotten a rude welcome to the NFL. Last week, he went 11-of-21 for 87 yards, threw four picks, and was sacked three times. Mills adjusted QB rating was 0.8. Houston has scored a grand total of nine points in Mills’ two starts.
Remember, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks. Belichick is 22-6 straight up against rookies. He has a rookie quarterback of his own in Mac Jones, but he is coming off a game where he went 31-for-40 for 275 yards and two touchdowns in a near upset of Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.
Best ATS Pick: PATRIOTS -9
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Jets will look to ride the momentum of their win over Tennessee last week. The Jets actually had no business winning that game, but the Titans committed too many mistakes and opened the door for head coach Robert Saleh who earned his first NFL victory.
So did Jets QB Zack Wilson who went 21-of-34 for 297 yards and two touchdowns. This week, Wilson will go up a Falcons defense that gives up a ton of points. It’s amazing that the Falcons give up 32 points per game despite winning a game where they gave up just 14. That 32 per game is dead last in the NFL.
The big thing about this game is that it will be played in London. Whoever adapts better to the new environment will have the most success. The Falcons may have experience, but the Jets just don’t know any better. That will keep them close.
Best ATS Pick: JETS +3.5
