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You might as well grab these NHL player props while you can. Truth be told, the Montreal Canadiens might actually be able to provide a bit of value in Game 4, as this is a desperate team trying to avoid elimination and doing it at home. But Carey Price has not been able to stand up in net, with just an .835 save percentage.
Despite having a 97-80 edge in shots on goal over the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Habs have scored only five goals in three games, and no Montreal player has more than two points in the series.
It is with all this in mind that we embark on offering you our best Stanley Cup props for Game 4.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 4 Player Props Predictions
Lightning vs. Canadiens Betting Report
BRENDAN GALLAGHER UNDER 0.5 POINTS (-175)
In other words, Gallagher will not score a point in Game 3. Gallagher has been great defensively for the Canadiens through the first three rounds of the playoffs. But he has been a notorious underachiever on offense. Over 20 postseason games, his expected goals are 5.2, but he has scored only once. He’s had the most shots on goal for any Montreal player (48), but has just six points in 20 games, and only one thus far in this series, although he has averaged almost 13-1/2 minutes of ice time.
As coach Dominique Ducharme knows his team is starved for offense, we wonder whether Gallagher will have his time cut a little, in favor of the people on the first and second lines.
BRAYDEN POINT OVER 0.5 POINTS (-167)
In this series, Tampa Bay’s Point has had just four shots on goal. So now, we don’t feel all that secure backing him in a shots prop. However, even without a goal, he’s averaged a point per game in the series. And in the playoffs overall, he has a shooting percentage of 21.9%. He’s got 14 goals, half of them on the power play, so you know he’ll be out there with a unit that has broken through Montreal’s previously impenetrable penalty-killing unit. As you probably know, Point was very much ON point for a stretch, as he had scored a goal in nine consecutive games. And coming into this Stanley Cup Finals series, he had averaged 0.56 goals per game in 64 playoff games, which was the second highest rate over the last 30 years.
ONDREJ PALAT OVER 0.5 POINTS (-114)
This is a decent price for a guy who is playing well and is out there with Point and Nikita Kucherov on a line. Palat had two assists – both at even strength – in Game 3, and he’s creating some opportunities (7 shots on goal). He’s been an accurate shooter, with 74.7% of his shots going on net during the regular season.
SHEA WEBER UNDER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL (-149)
We will say that Shea Weber, the veteran defenseman in his first Stanley Cup Final, has done whatever he could to make things happen. He leads his team with 12 shots on goal in the series, but that is somewhat of an aberration. If you want to take the playoffs alone, Weber has averaged only 1.6 shots a game, so the likelihood is that he will regress to the mean.
2021 Conn Smythe Trophy Update
2021 Conn Smythe Odds and Picks
Here’s how they’re listed:
Andrei Vasilevskiy -230
Nikita Kucherov -105
Brayden Point +800
Carey Price +4500
Admittedly there are not that many candidates. And they all have their case. Kucherov is, to date, the leading scorer in the playoffs, and he has done this without even having played in the regular season, so some voters will recognize that. Point has, as we’ve pointed out (pardon the pun), led everyone in playoff goals. And Montreal would not be here at all without Price.
Point might have to have a spectacular finish to capture this; perhaps a hat trick would do it. For Price, well, his team would have to rally back from being three games down in the Finals.
Seriously though, Vasilevskiy has given this team the kind of consistent excellence throughout this entire postseason, and being able to stop 92 of 97 shots is sensational. And people will consider that he was passed up for the Vezina Trophy too. He’s our pick, even at the -230 number.
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