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It’s not all that surprising that this analysis greatly revolves around quarterbacks, because the injury bug has hit some teams and we have changes under center.
Some of this may give a team the spark they need (as the Bears are looking for from Justin Fields). And perhaps the Dolphins are hoping a veteran can offer some stability. Then again, it could go the other way.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Time: Sunday, September 26 – 4:05 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Miami Dolphins – Over 20.5 Points -115 / Under 20.5 Points -115
Las Vegas Raiders – Over 24.5 Points -115 / Under 24.5 Points -115
The Play: DOLPHINS UNDER 20.5 (-115)
Before getting too crazy about this, one should understand that Jacoby Brissett, who will be taking the reins of this Miami offense on Sunday with Tua Tagovailoa injured, has had plenty of starters in the NFL, including two entire seasons for the Colts. So he is more experienced than the guy he’s taking over for.
That having been said, last week his approach was as low-risk as possible, while still filling the air with footballs. There is no quarterback in the NFL with more than 20 attempts who’s had fewer Intended Air Yards. Brissett also averaged 4.2 yards per attempt.
Will Fuller, we guess, is going to finally play for the Dolphins this weekend. But we’re not sure that’s going to make them all that dynamic. They could use a running back who can really ground out the yards, but they don’t have that. And the game plans that were tailored for Tua may not work here.
Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills
Time: Sunday, September 26 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Buffalo Bills – Over 27.5 Points (-110) / Under 27.5 Points (-120)
Washington Football Team – Over 18.5 Points (-110) / Under 18.5 Points (-120)
The Play: WFT UNDER 18.5 (-120)
When you really look at it, Buffalo has faced two experienced quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger and the aforementioned Brissett) and they’ve allowed just one offensive touchdown. So defense is making a comeback in Western New York.
This week, it’s a guy who’s been around for a while but doesn’t have many starts. Taylor Heinicke led the WFT to a victory last time out that probably shouldn’t have been (dumb offsides penalty on a missed Giant FG). But what we have with Washington is a team that, with Curtis Samuel not available, has limited weaponry once again.
And unless the stout WFT is able to create some easy chances with turnovers, this is going to be a difficult day for Heinike to move the ball. If this helps you, Buffalo is third best in yards per drive allowed.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Time: Sunday, September 26 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
New England Patriots – Over 22.5 Points (-110) / Under 22.5 Points (-120)
New Orleans Saints – Over 20 Points (-115) / Under 20 Points (-115)
The Play: SAINTS UNDER 20 (-115)
How long before they start asking, “Is Sean Payton really THAT committed to Jameis Winston?’ Perhaps that is being bandied around in the French Quarter already.
We told you last week we were skeptical about Winston’s five touchdowns against Green Bay, as a barometer for his performance, because aside from a late 55-yard TD pass, when the score was already 31-3, he had a grand total of 107 yards.
So last week he threw a pair of interceptions, and the Saints accumulated 128 yards. So let’s just say this unit is an unknown quantity in the aftermath of Drew Brees’ retirement.
The Pats’ defense has been revitalized somewhat, with new players and those who came back into the fold after an absence. And no team in the NFL has gained fewer yards per offensive possession than New Orleans.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Time: Sunday, September 26 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Los Angeles Chargers – Over 24.5 Points (-110) / Under 24.5 Points (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs – Over 31.5 Points (-110) / Under 31.5 Points (-120)
The Play: LA CHARGERS OVER 24.5 (-110)
We are going to be the first to admit that the Bolts have stalled at critical times; i.e., in the opponent’s red zone,and that more or less cost them a victory against the Dallas Cowboys last week.
We originally thought the biggest initial impact of Brandon Staley’s new regime was going to be on defense.But there is no doubt that they are moving the ball. We’ve talked about “drive stats” a couple of times here; no team in the league has averaged more yardage per drive than the Chargers (49.38). And we know that Justin Herbert is not afraid to air it out.
Looking at the other side, the Chiefs’ defense has the NFL’s worst “Drive Success Rate” in the NFL through the first two games (as per the analytics gurus at Football Outsiders) . If the Chargers can offer just a little improvement when they get into the shallow end of the field, they can clear this hurdle with room to spare.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Time: Sunday, September 26 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds:
Chicago Bears – Over 19.5 Points (-115) / Under 19.5 Points (-115)
Cleveland Browns – Over 27.5 Points (-105) / Under 27.5 Points (-125)
The Play: BEARS UNDER 19.5 (-115)
Look – when Matt Nagy is doing the play-calling, the Bears are a possibility to go under this total no matter who the quarterback is.
But this is the starting debut of Justin Fields, who got his feet wet last week after the Andy Dalton injury and is a good candidate for a painful indoctrination, especially as it involves Myles Garrett, who can beat Jason Peters.
As an Ohio State quarterback in the Urban Meyer-Ryan Day era, this guy was going to be a “project” to begin with. He’ll hold the ball a little too long and get confused with coverages. The game will be a little too fast for him the first time out, and you may see him taking to his feet more than this staff would like him to.
