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We’re going to analyze the best NBA player props from game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals between Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks and Jrue Holiday of the Milwauklee Bucks tonight.
Now, we may have explained to you that the Bucks have experienced a lot of success in defending Young in the past; that is, until Game 1 of this series, when he went off for 48 points. Clearly some adjustments had to be made, and indeed they were. In Game 2, the Bucks forced Young into one of the lousiest games he’s had as a pro, in which he compiled:
-15 points in 28 minutes
-Only one for eight from the three-point arc
-Just three attempts from the free throw line
-Only three assists
-NINE turnovers, eight of which were in the first half
And that first half was disastrous for the Hawks, who went to the locker room down 77-45. So admittedly, with benches emptying in the second half, we didn’t see the full body of work from Young.
But we did see a 41.2 Usage percentage form him while he was in the game. What Milwaukee did differently was to hassle him a lot more in the game. And that came by way of first-team All-Defensive guard Jrue Holiday. This is Holiday’s first season in Milwaukee, but the Bucks had done a great job against Young in the past, having held him to 19.8 ppg and 36% shooting in seven previous games, prior to this series.
What we’d like to focus on here are some of the NBA props available that deal with Young, Holiday, or both at the same time.
Bucks vs. Hawks Game 3 Player Props Picks
Bucks vs. Hawks Betting Report
Trae Young Points Prop Odds
Over 29.5 Points (-122)
Under 29.5 Points (-106)
I’d lean toward the “under” here because the puzzle for Young to solve is probably more difficult to solve than the one Holiday and the Bucks have to solve. Part of Young’s dilemma is that he needs to find teammates who are going to act as a diversion, in the hope that Milwaukee gets TOO focused on him.
Jrue Holiday Points Prop Odds
Over 20.5 Points (-111
Under 20.5 Points (-106
This is an “over” scenario for us. Yes, Holiday will be very focused on slowing down Young; indeed, it will be a top priority for him. But you can’t ignore the problem Young has here. When Milwaukee goes with its current lineup, which includes Giannis, center Brook Lopez, small forward Khris Middleton and 6-5, 245-pound PJ Tucker, there is no one left for Young to guard except Holiday, and that is a potential nightmare for him. So this is a big scoring opportunity.
Head-to-Head Points – Holiday vs. Young
Trae Young (-625)
Jrue Holiday (+317)
Okay, not sure there’s a load of value here. but if Holiday can do a diligent job on the defensive end, this isn’t a place we want to lay this price with Young.
Most Three-Pointers – Holiday vs. Young
Trae Young (-213)
Jrue Holiday (+138)
In terms of raw numbers, Holiday made 1.9 triples per game this season, while Young made 2.2. Neither of these guys makes that a huge priority. For what it’s worth, however, Holiday is 8-for-16 from downtown in these last two games, while Young has not gotten great looks, going just 5-for-21. So we would venture down the “Holiday road” here.
