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We’re going to discuss the most common golf betting mistakes that you need to avoid. A few weeks ago I was having a conversation with a friend about wagering on professional golf – mostly the PGA Tour. He is almost 67 years old and has a history of betting exclusively on the four Majors. However, as of late, he has opened up to other fun options due to the functionality that came with his new phone after his old flip version finally died! Yes, he still had a flip phone.
Now he has been introduced to phone apps and the large world of wagering options – on just about any sport. Our conversation was wide-ranged, but started to focus on some tips for avoiding pitfalls when placing a bet on golf. My suggestions on common golf betting mistakes fit well with his seasoned ideas of placing wagers only four or five times a year. The advice works with any golf event you wager on, including the PGA, LPGA, DP World Tour and even LIV.
Understanding the Field and the Event
One of the most common golf betting mistakes is not understanding the field or the event. Not every golf tournament is the same and not every field will have the same “big name” players involved. This is even more important with changes to the PGA Tour schedule, limited field events, and the addition of no-cut and elevated tournaments.
The Majors have set eligibility requirements that limit the field to some of the best players in the world. Well-known players often miss the Masters due to not winning or ranking high enough to meet the requirements set by Augusta National. An example is Rickie Fowler who missed a few years at Augusta due to not being in the top 50 or a past Masters winner. It’s always a good idea to look at the tournament, what type of field is involved and what players may or may not be involved.
Only Betting on PGA Tour Big Names
It is easy to focus on the biggest names of the game when it comes to wagering on golf – or any other sport. But when it comes to golf, there is a noticeable difference that is similar to NASCAR. Golfers and NASCAR drivers are singular. Yes, NASCAR drivers have pit crews as their team, but PGA players and NASCAR drivers stand alone when it comes to bringing home a win. This is unlike a baseball, basketball or football team complete with backup players.
This makes it incredibly easy to lean on the top names during any given tournament while possibly overlooking some value further down the odds list. That means that a dive into the stats is always needed to look for some possible trends. A perfect example is Wyndham Clark who won the 2023 U.S. Open. Clark was not a favorite to win as he was around +7000 coming into the opening round. However, he had recently won a tournament and had finished T16 or better in a string of events. Sometimes you must look for value with great stats instead of the big name.
Don’t Ignore the Course or Conditions
No two courses on the PGA Tour schedule are the same. Some are wide open with deep roughs, some are tight with small greens, and some are a combination of anything you can think of. Courses undergo renovations, new bunkers are added, tee boxes are moved, greens are redone, and trees are added or removed. This does not even bring into consideration how the course will be set up for an event. Or how the weather conditions have been at the venue before the event and what the forecast is during the tournament. Or how the greenskeepers are going to set things up. So why does this matter?
Courses can roughly be divided into a few categories. The most common two differences mentioned by golf pundits are those that welcome long hitters and those that reward great short games. There are plenty of others, but these two are easy to use as examples. It’s always a great idea to look at past tournaments at a venue to see how a player has done there. Then check out your possible choices and see how their stats on the PGA website line up with the course.
Don’t Ignore Injuries
One of the most glaring common golf betting mistakes that people make is underestimating some basic things that your possible player choices may be going through. One of the biggest is any injuries a player may be suffering from or recovering from. Even a small back strain can take a golfer weeks to recover from and that changes an entire swing. A great example is Brooks Koepka who suffered what many fans thought was a common knee injury.
He was still pulling in great odds and playing at a high level. As it turns out, his 2021 knee injury was much worse than many knew. “I just slipped”, Koepka said. “I was at home. I dislocated my knee and then I tried to put it back in and that’s when I shattered my kneecap and during the process tore my MPFL (medial patellofemoral ligament). His lower leg and foot were pointing in the wrong direction.
The point is, injuries take time to recover from and as fans we have no idea how bad they are, let alone how the player and his doctors are treating the injury and what limitations there may be to a player’s mobility and form.
Don’t Ignore Changes
As for changes – I’m talking about putter changes, driver changes, additions of new clubs such as wedges or hybrids. I’m also talking about changes in a player’s life! Any change to a player’s form suggested by a coach or an equipment change signals that something is troubling for a player. Something had to happen to force a change. Either an injury, age, confidence, or whatever – something happened that convinced a player and his “team” to make a change and try something new.
The other type of change is the type that comes with living. Players are human, they get married, babies are born, family members pass away and more. This may sound trivial and somewhat evasive, but it has happened to me. I had a string of choices that underperformed to my perceived expectations only to finally hear an announcer mention on the broadcast that said player must be tired after the birth of their child. A short time later I found out that one of my picks was playing for the first time after the death of a parent. I’m both a father and have lost my parents so I instantly knew what these two players were going through and just ended up pulling for them to finish well.
A quick look at social media and golfing news will help you stay informed about players making changes to their games and if they are undergoing something hard to deal with in their personal lives.
Not Using Free Stats
One of the biggest common golf betting mistakes is not using free stats when it comes to the PGA. The term handicapping is slang for having information -aka knowledge! The PGA Tour website is home to a near-endless variety of player stats that are constantly updated. Do you wonder how you guy is doing with his putter as of late? How about his accuracy off the tee? What about his skill level around the green? All of these statistics and more are only a click away and they are free.
The LPGA Tour and DP World Tour are close behind with their statistics for players – probably the same with only a design difference. The LIV golf site is playing catch up when it comes to statistics. Plus, major sporting news websites such as ESPN are loaded with free info. But, the PGA Tour website is king when it comes to researching just about any swing.
Avoiding Common Golf Betting Mistakes Can Be Easy
Avoiding the common golf betting mistakes can be easy if you remember this piece of advice – take a deep breath and do some research! Take some time to research the event format and player field. The biggest names don’t win every tournament, which requires researching the field a bit.
Research any possible changes to the course, research the course type and the weather conditions. Then research news stories about possible swing changes, equipment changes and life changes a player may be going through. Then, research basic statistics to back up or disprove some of your possible choices for your golf wagering selections.
