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Betting on who wins a golf tournament is one of the most common forms of golf wagering, but did you know that you don’t have to limit yourself to trying to choose who the winner will be after four rounds and 72 holes? Instead, you can simply pick who you think will be the leader following the first round of play.
These are called first-round Leader wagers or sometimes shortened to FRL – similar to HR for home runs in baseball. For this article, I’m referencing tournaments of four rounds with 72 holes, not including playoffs, but it should translate easily to LIV Golf-style tournament formats.
What Is Golf First-Round Leader Betting?
First-round leader betting is exactly what it says. You select the player that you think will be the leader after the first round of the tournament. This is only after a round of 18 holes on the first day of the event. Other than that, FRL wagering is straightforward, but there are some things you can do to try to make the best selections possible.
Golf First-Round Leader Betting Factors
Weather: One of the first things to research is the weather at the venue where the tournament is being held. Then check out the tee times for the players you are considering. Remember, you’re just looking at the first round which starts on a Thursday. You don’t have to worry about the rest of the event. If the weather is looking rough in the morning for the first round then you may need to lean towards players teeing off later in the day. If the forecast calls for rough weather later in the day then you may need to take a look at players hitting the links early. This was a huge concern at the Masters this year as weather was a factor for much of the event. Players hitting the tees early had an advantage over those playing later in the day for several rounds.
Course: You can also take the course itself into consideration. If the venue has a long history of holding events then you should probably look at past scoring during the opening round. Past leaderboards are easy to look up online and you may find a player that has a trend of opening strong while playing the course. The possible problem with course consideration is that the venue may have undergone some changes since the last event. Look for media stories about the course to see if it has been redesigned, tee boxes changed, distances altered, or greens being redone.
Birdie and Scambling Stats: Now that you have looked at the weather and the course it’s now time to dive into the players! This can be done in several ways. Look at how a player has performed at the course during the opening round in the past. Also, look at their overall performance at the same course during multiple rounds. Now look at the player’s stats for knocking down birdies overall. Then look at their most recent outings.
The key is shaving strokes during a single round, not over the entire four-day tournament. This is where diving into stats gets a bit tricky when compared to wagering on a tournament winner. For example, stats found on PGA.com are based on the performance of a player during the entire season. Look for the performance of a player over their most recent events. They may not have won a tournament, but they could have had several tournaments in a row where they improved their birdie and scrambling stats. I emphasize birdie and scrambling stats because of the obvious connection to shaving strokes during a round. But to get to that point, the player still has to tee off. So once you’ve done a bit of research on the above, still take a look at greens in regulation, approach, etc.
What Is 3-Ball Betting in Golf?
Golf First-Round Betting Strategies
Now that you have some ideas on how to research first-round leader betting you can put the information to work as part of your wagering strategy. It all starts with the odds coming out for the event which generally happens late Monday or Tuesday. Look over the odds to get a general idea of where things stand and scan over the names for players.
You may have a few players already in mind following their performance during their last tournament. Or, you may see a name with odds that could make you consider them as being better value over others. Now that you have your handful of likely picks take a moment to run through the suggestions listed above. Take a look at the weather, the course, the player’s overall play as well as their recent outings.
This will help you narrow your pool of selections down to your final picks with some added benefit! I often come out of the process of selecting first-round leaders with some names that I can use elsewhere. Such as winning the event outright and other wagers offered during the tournament.
