Herbert vs. Mahomes Player Props Picks for TNF Week 2

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football to kick-off week 2.

We have two of the top young quarterbacks facing each other in this AFC West showdown.

This will be the fourth head-to-head meeting between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are 2-1 SU in those games, but the Chargers are 2-1 ATS. Two of three games stayed under the total.

NFL Betting Sites

There will be dozens of Herbert and Mahomes player props to bet on at online sportsbooks.

Read our Chargers vs. Chiefs betting preview for week 2.

We’ll be analyzing four player match-up betting markets in this article.

Who Will Have the Most Passing Yards?

Odds: Mahomes (-145) vs. Herbert (-115)

Mahomes went 30/39 for 360 passing yards in a week 1 win against the Cardinals (44-21). Herbert wasn’t as dominant in week 1, but he went 26/34 for 279 passing yards in a win against the Raiders (24-19).

Herbert has thrown for more passing yards in two of the three H2H match-ups against Mahomes.

Derek Carr struggled with turnovers (3 INTs), but he threw for 295 passing yards against the Chargers. It’s unlikely the Chargers are going to be able to keep Mahomes in check on Thursday night.

The Chiefs defense only allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 193 passing yards.

Best Bet: Mahomes (-145)

NFL Odds

Who Will Have the Most Passing Touchdowns?

Odds: Mahomes (-165) vs. Herbert (+100)

Mahomes is coming off a huge performance in week 1 where he tossed five passing TDs. Herbert threw three TD passes in week 1. Which QB will throw the most passing touchdowns in week 2?

Looking back at the H2H results between these two QBs, Mahomes threw more TDs in two of the three games. Mahomes has thrown eight TDs in those three games, while Herbert has tossed seven TDs.

In the most recent H2H match-up, the Chiefs won on the road in overtime (34-28). Mahomes threw for 410 yards and 3 TDs, while Herbert struggled, throwing for 236 yards and 2 TDs.

The Chiefs rushed for one TD in week 1 and the Chargers didn’t score a rushing TD. Could KC end up scoring on the ground, allowing Herbert to throw more touchdown passes than Mahomes? It’s possible.

The value is on Herbert. If both QBs throw the same number of TDs, the bet is a push (bet refunded).

Best Bet: Herbert (+100)

NFL Picks

Who Will Have the Most Passing Completions?

Odds: Mahomes (-170) vs. Herbert (+105)

Mahomes had 30 completions in week 1 and Herbert finished with 26 completions.

This market will depend upon how the game is going. If either team gets up, it’s likely they start to run the football more. KC rushed 27 times in week 1 and the Chargers rushed 31 times.

Mahomes has thrown more pass completions in each of the three H2H games against Herbert.

Mahomes completed 27, 27 and 31 passes in the three games. Herbert completed 22, 26 and 22 passes in those games. It’s tough to bet against Mahomes based on the trends and week 1 performances.

Best Bet: Mahomes (-170)

NFL Player Props Betting Guide

Who Will Have the Most Interceptions?

Odds: Mahomes (-140) vs. Herbert (-115)

Neither QB threw an interception in week 1. Last season, Mahomes threw 13 INTs (2% of pass attempts), while Herbert threw 15 INTs (2.2% of pass attempts). There isn’t much separating either QB here.

In week 1, the Chargers intercepted Carr three times, while the Chiefs didn’t have any interceptions.

In the three H2H games between these two QBs, Mahomes and Herbert threw the most INTs once. In the most recent H2H game, both QBs tied in this betting market with 1 interception each.

Turnovers are going to play a role in this game and the Chargers defense looks hungry. They’re able to get pressure with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, forcing opposing QBs into making mistakes.

Predicting interceptions is tough, but I’m betting on Mahomes to throw more INTs.

Best Bet: Mahomes (-140)

NFL Cappers

Herbert/Mahomes Weekly Special at DraftKings

DraftKings releases “weekly special” markets for NFL games and they have an exciting prop bet available for Thursday Night Football that could potentially payout at 9/1 odds.

The bet is on Mahomes and Herbert to combine for 700+ passing yards and 7+ passing TDs. NFL bettors can only bet on the “Yes” at +900 if they believe these two QBs will combine for the numbers above.

Looking back at recent head-to-head games between these two QBs, the “Yes” has never come close to hitting. They combined for 7+ passing TDs once, but never combined for 700+ passing yards.

While the payout looks enticing, this isn’t a great bet to make this week.