Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards and Touchdowns Props Picks

It did not take all that long for the online sportsbooks to start posting prop bet odds for a few first round picks from the 2021 NFL Draft. The sixth overall pick of the opening round was former Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Next season, he will be playing on Sundays for the Miami Dolphins.

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Jaylen Waddle Total Receiving Yards Prop Prediction

The OVER/UNDER for this prop has been listed at 800 receiving yards with the betting odds set at -120 for either side of this wager.

Last season, the Miami Dolphins turned to Tua Tagovailoa as its new starting quarterback. He played in 10 games and threw for 1,814 yards and 11 touchdowns. The team’s leading receiver was DeVante Parker with 63 receptions for 793 yards and four touchdowns.

Parker is a solid player at his position. Yet, you have to assume that Waddle will assume the No. 1 receiver position on offense. The Dolphins also came to terms with wide receiver Will Fuller as another key offseason acquisition on offense.

The big question you have to ask yourself when betting this prop is how big of a step forward can Tua take in his first full season as the team’s starter. Using last year’s stats, he should throw for at least 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns. Any major step forward would shift the value in this prop to OVER with Waddle set as his primary target.

Overall, Miami was ranked No. 18 in passing yards per game (339.0). That number was a bit inflated with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm early in the year. None the less, I do believe that Dolphins’ head coach Brian Flores will rely a bit more heavily on moving the ball down the field through the air with Waddle, Fuller and Parker the top three receivers.

Prop Bet Pick: OVER 800 at -120

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Jaylen Waddle Total Touchdowns Scored Prop Prediction

The betting odds for this NFL player prop favor the UNDER at -130 for a total of seven touchdowns scored. The betting odds for the OVER are set at -110.

Going back to Tua’s stats as a rookie, he averaged just over one touchdown throw a game. He should be able to increase his production slightly with Waddle and Fuller in the lineup. The rookie may draw most of the attention from the opposing team’s top defensive back to add value to a few other players’ ability to catch more touchdown throws. This could also open things up for tight end Mike Gesicki, who led the team in receiving touchdowns with six.

Waddle is definitely a big time playmaker as a deep threat in the passing game. His speed alone could easily lead to two or three scores over the course of the year. He also averaged 24 yards every time he touched the ball as a punt returner. That adds some scoring potential if Miami decides to use him on special teams.

The addition of Fuller could work against Waddle a bit. A few touchdown throws that might have gone the rookie’s way next season could end up in the hands of Parker, Fuller or Gesicki. This is just enough of a factor to go with the more conservative play in this prop at a slightly higher risk.

Prop Bet Pick: UNDER 7 Touchdowns at -130

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