Bettors are always looking for advantages. If they can get an edge somewhere, they will take it in an effort to increase their winning percentage.
In betting the NFL, many bettors track NFL statistics. It’s easy to track things like passing or rushing yards and receiving yards for both individual players and entire teams.
But, those stats only give bettors part of the story.
There are essentially five factors that influence the outcome of an NFL game. Winning in any one of these five areas increases a team’s chances of winning tremendously.
1. Explosive plays
2. Success rate on crucial downs
3. Red zone success rate
4. Field position battle
5. Turnover battle
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For example, when a team wins the turnover battle in a game – has fewer turnovers than its opponent – it wins 73 percent of the time.
Knowing and understanding these factors, bettors can track more advanced NFL statistics to help them prepare in making their wagers.
Keep these NFL statistics in mind when analyzing NFL week 3 odds.
Average Starting Field Position
It’s almost common sense, but it is true that a team that is forced to go 80 yards for a touchdown will not score as often as a team that only has to go 50 yards.
Teams that start drives with better field position than their opponent score more often. Those teams have a higher likelihood of winning. That is why NFL bettors should track this statistic.
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Turnover Margin
When teams turn the ball over, bad things happen. When a quarterback throws an interception for example, it stops a drive and gives an opponent a possession that it would not have had otherwise.
As bad as a turnover is for an offense, it is just as good for a defense. Teams that continually pressure quarterbacks and produce interceptions or even fumbles create a lot of turnovers. Those turnovers increase the chances of a team winning.
In Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season, two teams – Carolina and Minnesota – committed four turnovers. Carolina’s opponent, Tampa Bay, committed two turnovers. The Colts committed just one at Minnesota.
The Panthers and Vikings both lost.
Offensive Yards Per Carry
Teams that can run the football well generally have success in the NFL. Consider last year’s Baltimore Ravens. They averaged over 200 yards rushing per game and finished the regular season 14-2.
But, going deeper into this statistic, bettors are looking for explosiveness. The league average per rush is usually somewhere between 3.0 and 4.0 yards per attempt. Last week, Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per attempt.
The Packers totaled 259 yards and 35 carries. Averaging seven yards per carry is a good indication that there were some explosive runs in that game. Packers RB Aaron Jones had a 75-yard touchdown run.
Teams that have more explosive plays in a game tend to win over 80 percent of the time. Keep this in mind when making your NFL predictions this week.
Offensive Yards Per Pass Attempt
Tracking yards per pass attempt will also give you some insight into explosive pass plays as well as overall efficiency in the passing game. The NFL average per pass attempt is usually around 7.0 yards.
This statistic also takes into account sack yards, so teams that protect their quarterbacks better will have higher averages.
Take the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Josh Allen completed 24-of-35 passes for 417 yards. He was sacked just one time for a loss of four yards. His per attempt average was 11.9 yards.
Among Allen’s four touchdown passes were two “explosive” plays – a 22-yard scoring toss to Stefon Diggs and a 46-yarder to John Brown.
The Bills beat Miami in Week 2.
Third-Down Conversion Rate (Offense & Defense)
NFL coaches would love to avoid third down, but the situation usually arises at least 10 times per game. Obtaining a first down means an offense maintains possession of the ball. A failure, in most cases, means they punt the ball on fourth down.
The Raiders, Rams, Packers, Titans, Bills, and Chiefs all have a third-down conversion percentage of 50.0 or more. All six teams are ranked in the top-9 in the league and all six are 2-0.
The same is true on defense. Baltimore, which is 2-0, is known for having one of the better defenses in the NFL. One of the reasons for their success is their ability to stop opposing offenses on third down. In 21 attempts thus far in 2020, Baltimore has allowed opponents just six successful conversions on third down.
Understanding how NFL teams are successful and the statistics that determine success can go a long way to helping bettors improve their winning percentage and win more bets.
