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In a normal season, pitchers with 15 or more wins and an ERA under 2.00 typically are in consideration for their respective league’s Cy Young Award.
The 2020 season was anything but typical and Shane Bieber who went 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA and Trevor Bauer (5-4, 1.73 ERA) won the AL and NL Cy Young Awards, respectively.
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Both are in the mix as favorites again in 2021, but there are plenty of other best bets to win the Cy Young Awards this season.
2021 MLB American League Cy Young Award Picks
Bieber returns as one of the favorites to win at +500, but he’ll be challenged by two guys whose teams are expected to win division titles.
Gerrit Cole is the ace of the New York Yankees staff. Cole went 35-10 in two seasons at Houston before going 7-3 last year in New York. His ERA has not been over 2.88 in any of the last three seasons and he’ll have plenty of offense behind him. That’s why he’s the +425 favorite to win the AL Cy Young.
Following Cole is the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito. He went just 4-3 last year, but was 14-9 the year before. Like Cole, he will have offensive firepower backing him up.
Cole’s new teammate Corey Kluber, a former two-time winner (2014, 2017), is also in the mix at +1200. Another pitcher to consider is Toronto’s Hyun-Jin Ryu. He went 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA last season and was 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA in 2019 for the Dodgers. Ryu will not have the same run support as some of the other names on the list.
The one longshot to watch is another teammate of a favorite – Dallas Keuchel. Last year, Keuchel went a very quiet 6-2 with an outstanding 1.77 ERA. He is listed at +2500, but he will also benefit from the outstanding White Sox offense.
The bottom line though is that this is Cole’s award to lose. The Yankees are loaded and prepped for a World Series run. Cole is the best pitcher on the best team in the league.
AL CY YOUNG PICK: GERRIT COLE
2021 MLB American League Cy Young Winner Odds
Gerrit Cole +425
Lucas Giolito +450
Shane Bieber +500
Tyler Glasnow +1000
Corey Kluber +1200
Hyun-Jin Ryu +1400
Jose Berrios +1600
Lance Lynn +1600
Chris Sale +2000
Kenta Maeda +2000
2021 MLB National League Cy Young Award Picks
It wasn’t until 2018 that a major league pitcher ever won a Cy Young with as few as just 10 wins. The Mets Jacob deGrom won it in 2018 and 2019 with win totals of 10 and 11. Last year, Bauer won it with five in the shortened season.
Don’t expect those types of numbers again. The Mets added some firepower to their lineup with SS Francisco Lindor to go along with 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso. Once again, deGrom is the overall favorite at +350 to win his third Cy Young.
Speaking of three Cy Young Awards, the NL has two pitchers that own three each. Clayton Kershaw (2011, 2013, and 2014) checks in at +1600 likely due to his age (he will be 33 on March 19).
Washington’s Max Scherzer also owns three Cy Youngs, one with Detroit in 2013 and two with the Nationals in 2016 and 2017.
San Diego got active in the offseason and worked out deals to bring in 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and last year’s NL wins leader Yu Darvish who went 8-3 and was second to Bauer in ERA at 2.01. Darvish is among the favorites to win this year at +900. Snell is listed at +1200.
It seems weird to say it, but if there is a longshot candidate in the NL it’s probably Kershaw at +1600. The Dodgers are favored again to win the NL West, the NLCS, and repeat as World Series champs. That translates into a lot of wins and Kershaw, with his career 2.43 ERA, would be right in thick of things.
Still, his new teammate Bauer is more likely to reap the benefits of having won the award last year. Plus, he’ll have the run support to win a lot more games in 2021.
NL CY YOUNG PICK: TREVOR BAUER
2021 MLB National League Cy Young Winner Odds
Jacob deGrom +350
Trevor Bauer +700
Yu Darvish +900
Max Scherzer +1100
Blake Snell +1200
Luis Castillo +1200
Walker Buehler +1200
Aaron Nola +1400
Jack Flaherty +1400
Clayton Kershaw +1600
