MLB Regular Season Delay Looks Inevitable – Who Has the Leverage?

It is more or less a foregone conclusion that the baseball season is not going to start on time. On Friday, the owners issued a statement indicating that spring training games, which were actually scheduled to begin on February 26, were a no-go, but of course that is something we were well aware of.

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Now, at best, there will be an abbreviated spring session; that is, if there is any hope of meeting the slated start date of March 31 for the regular season.

Owners vs. Players

The tone of MLB’s statement was that they had no choice but to push back the earliest date for games as March 5. But the players’ association took issue with that, releasing this:

“MLB announced today that it ‘must’ postpone the start of spring training games. This is false. Nothing requires the league to delay the start of spring training, much like nothing required the league’s decision to implement the lockout in the first place. Despite these decisions by the league, Players remain committed to the negotiation process.”

Well, they’re probably right about that last part. The MLB people, after initiating the lockout on December 2, didn’t even come to the table for the first negotiating session until January 13. And the last meeting lasted only fifteen minutes, if that.

There are so many issues that need to be worked out that one can’t see a satisfactory resolution anytime soon. One of them, of course, is the luxury tax, which in effect penalizes teams that spend too much. It’s not a salary cap, but qualifies as a payroll constraint.

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As it stands now, the tax threshold starts at $210 million, and works on a graduated scale, as each dollar that exceeds the threshold is taxed. When a team has a payroll over $250 million, those dollars in salary over and above that are taxed at a rate of 62.5%. So for example, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who spent $262 million on payroll, paid a tax of $32.65 million.

Naturally this is designed to discourage spending that is so out of control that it upsets any sense of competitive balance. The higher the figure, the better it is for the players. So obviously they would like to increase that to about $245 million. Or even higher, over the course of the next five years.

Of course, that is not the only issue at hand. But the issue, as far as fans are concerned, is that there are millionaires and billionaires here, and the economy isn’t exactly booming, and there doesn’t seem to be an effort on either side (more so with the owners, who initiated the stoppage) to come to an accord to give them baseball.

Oh, and that ultimately the higher costs of doing business might get passed on to them.

Sure, they’ll get refunds for the canceled games, but there’s a bigger picture to look at. I have lived through a number of work stoppages, and yes, I know that every time this happens everybody asks whether the fans are going to come back when the dust settles (and we know it will settle at some point).

Bigger Problems This Time Around

This year it may be a bigger problem than usual. In 2020, the pandemic caused the ballparks to be empty. Last season there were restrictions in most parks as far as how many fans could attend.

In other words, fans became more accustomed to not going to games. When that happens, they find other things. Sometimes it amounts to simply watching on television, which is not all bad for the owners but isn’t what they want.

And now, with MLB becoming more “woke,” they have turned off a certain portion of the constituency. When commissioner Rob Manfred pulled the All-Star Game out of Atlanta because of a voting rights bill in the state of Georgia, which as far as we know had nothing to do with the (eventual champion) Atlanta Braves, he didn’t do himself – or the sport – any favors.

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Having fights over hundreds of millions is not exactly the elixir for creating goodwill, for either side.

And instinct tells us that the owners are in the more leveraged position. And that would explain why there is more of a sense of urgency on the part of the players. Remember that while players will receive bonuses and deferred payments, they will not get paid their base salary while there is a lockout in place. Because they are paid during the regular season, they haven’t lost any salary yet, but hat’s exactly what will happen once April comes. And that may change the dynamic.

Some players have a tendency to spend, often lavishly. And whatever financial commitments they’ve made are in place whether there is a baseball season or not. You may recall that when the players and owners deliberated how to move ahead with the 2020 season, a negotiation had to take place, and that cause a delay. Famously, Noah Syndergaard (then with the Mets), who had signed a lease for a $27,000-per-month penthouse apartment, couldn’t make the payments, and got sued as a result.

There are undoubtedly a lot more stories where that came from. And don’t kid yourself; that is a factor.

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