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In this betting guide, we’re going to discuss MLB stolen bases props.
This prop bet is often overlooked, but there’s strong potential for big payouts. Since 2015, stolen bases have been trending downwards and that’s mainly due to the rise in the use of analytics.
Players are stealing less bases, but there’s still money to be made in this MLB props betting market.
MLB Stolen Base Totals By Year
Here’s the total number of stolen bases in MLB by year since 2010:
2010: 1505 Stolen Bases
2011: 1600 Stolen Bases
2012: 1502 Stolen Bases
2013: 1428 Stolen Bases
2014: 1394 Stolen Bases
2015: 1184 Stolen Bases
2016: 1149 Stolen Bases
2017: 1272 Stolen Bases
2018: 1259 Stolen Bases
2019: 1148 Stolen Bases
2020: 453 Stolen Bases (Shortened season due to COVID-19)
2021: 1148 Stolen Bases
With 1000+ stolen bases in MLB every season, there’s a lot of opportunities to find profitable bets in this MLB props betting market. We’ll discuss some tips for winning this wager later in the guide.
How to Bet on MLB Stolen Bases Props
The first thing to do is find an online sportsbook with MLB stolen bases props. A lot of bookies don’t even offer this prop bet, but you can find them at various bookies, including DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s take a look at an example of a MLB stolen bases prop bet:
Ronald Acuna Jr. Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+270) vs. Under 0.5 (-400)
All MLB stolen bases props use an over/under line of 0.5. Simply put, you’re betting on a player to steal at least one base when betting on the over or you’re betting on a player not to steal a base on the under.
Generally, you’re only going to want to bet on the over for this prop bet, as the juice is too high on under.
Tips for Betting on MLB Stolen Bases Props
MLB stolen base props will be available for numerous players in every game, but you can rule some of them out right away. You want to target players that steal bases on a regular basis.
At the time of writing this guide, most MLB teams have played around 60 games of the 2022 regular season and only 20 players have stolen 10+ bases successfully. That’s not a big number.
Focus on these players when betting on MLB stolen bases props bets.
You also need to analyze the pitching match-up for that game. You want to avoid betting on these props against high velocity power pitchers that are regularly throwing 100+ mph.
The faster the pitcher gets the baseball to the catcher, the less likely players will be able to successfully steal bases. It’s much better to target pitchers that throw a lot of offspeed pitches.
With average odds on the over 0.5 stolen bases being around 3/1, you only need to hit one correct pick out of every three picks to breakeven, which is much better than betting on MLB moneylines.
We don’t recommend dedicating too much time to betting on MLB stolen bases props, but it’s definitely a good wager to have in your arsenal to target when the match-up is ideal.
Read our MLB total bases props betting guide and MLB home run props betting guide next.
