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There have been more than a few surprises along the way this season and although we have a few weeks to go, at the end of the day this football season is taking us right back where we started!
That’s right, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Michigan – throw in a couple of others for good measure, and we have a dogfight on our hands. The surprises are teams such as TCU (unranked) but beat Baylor last week, and UTSA, #23.
College football is fun when unknown teams start cracking the Top 25. It’s not too late to claim a great bonus, so be sure to call a fantastic offshore bookmaker and ask for one. This week is a for sure money grab, buckle up, and good luck.
New Mexico State (1-8, 6-3-0 ATS) @ #2 Alabama (8-1, 5-4-0 ATS)
New Mexico State vs. Alabama Picks
New Mexico State +51.5, O/U 67
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
12:00 ET SECN
These types of college football games are hard to analyze, yet on the other hand, they are easy. Many bettors make the quick-glance mistake of saying “no way” when they see a spread this big. Often, this is a rookie mistake. The oddsmakers and line movers know the numbers and they get it right on the dot 90% of the time, thus leaving betting on football nothing more than a guessing game against your bookmaker. In a game of this nature, you must look at final scores and what Alabama has scored on good teams, and the bad ones. We know Alabama is better than NMS on every level, and in every single category, there is no close comparison of any sort. So, we go to the final scores. The Tide put 52 on Tennessee, 49 on Miss State, 41 on Texas A &M, 42, on Ole Miss, 63 on Southern Miss, 31 on Florida, 48 on Mercer, and 44 on Miami. Do you see the pattern?
Picks: Alabama -51.5, Over 67
#6 Michigan (8-1, 7-2-0 ATS) @ Penn State (6-3, 6-3-0 ATS)
Michigan EVEN, O/U 48.5
Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
12:00 ET ABC
This game is always a battle and after seeing what Michigan State did to Michigan two weeks ago, we certainly believe that Penn State can handle Harbaugh and any plan he brings to Happy Valley. On paper, Michigan should win this game, they score 38.2 ppg, to PSU’s 26.8. Michigan is allowing 16 ppg, while PSU is allowing 16.7. PSU allows 137.1 rushing yards per game while Michigan runs for 234.1 yards per game. This game comes down to Haskins, not McNamara Vs. Clifford. Haskins is a beast and he will run roughshod over Penn State’s defense. Luckily for us, Harbaugh took a dump at Michigan State, now, Vegas is squeamish.
Picks: Michigan Even Money/ML Win, Under 48
#8 Oklahoma (9-0, 4-5-0 ATS) @ #13 Baylor (7-2, 6-3-0 ATS)
Oklahoma -5.5, ML -220/+180 O/U 62
McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
12:00 ET FOX
A week ago, we would have given Baylor a serious chance to win this game. That week ago, might as well be a year ago! We see what Baylor does with its rivals and to boot, unranked rivals. Last week’s loss against TCU was simply embarrassing. Baylor must win these kinds of games if they want to be considered legit, an upset here and there would certainly help as well. Baylor is a good football team, but not good enough to hang with the big boys in the BIG 12, not yet, give them another season. Baylor’s first loss of the season was against Oklahoma State. The Sooners are bigger, faster, and they will outduel a good Baylor team.
Picks: Oklahoma -5.5 Under 62
Mississippi State (5-4, 5-4-0 ATS) @ #17 Auburn (6-3, 5-4-0 ATS)
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Picks
Mississippi State +5.5 ML +180/-2200, O/U 50
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
12:00 ET ESPN
State is a difficult bunch of players to figure out. They put up a good effort in Arkansas, but allowed 31 points, they beat the brakes off #12 Kentucky, and of course, they easily beat Vandy. The week before Vandy, they were destroyed by Alabama, and allowed 49 points, the week before Alabama, they beat #12 Texas A&M, 26-22. Do you see our dilemma? Last Saturday, Auburn lost to Texas A&M 20-3. Auburn is nothing special, they are not great, not bad, they are middle of the road. We would lay -3, not -5.5. This game will be close because Rogers and Polk keep it close.
Picks: Mississippi State +5.5, Over 50
Northwestern (3-6, 3-6-0 ATS) @ #18 Wisconsin (6-3, 5-4-0 ATS)
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Picks
Northwestern +24.5, O/U 41
Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI
12:00 ET ESPN2
The Wildcats lost to Rutgers, 21-7. Should we continue? Really? Look, the Badgers are a much better team and they will win big. They beat Rutgers last week, 52-3 in Rutgers. YES, they can and will lay a smackdown on Northwestern. Remember Purdue, remember when they beat #2 Iowa and they looked amazing? They were ranked #14 at the time and the entire college football world thought the Boilermakers had finally arrived. Yea – then the next week they played Wisconsin for a loss to the Badgers 30-12. If Nebraska can lay 58 on the Wildcats, the Badgers can cover 25 points all day long.
Picks: Wisconsin -24.5, Over 41
#24 Utah (6-3, 4-5-0 ATS) @ Arizona (1-8, 5-4-0 ATS)
Utah -24, O/U 54
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
2:00 ET PAC12
Within the last five years, the PAC 12 has had its moments of greatness, of course, the greatness goes much further back with this storied college football conference, the point is, they have had a whole lot of competitive football teams over the recent years. Today, the only competitive team is Oregon, except Utah. Everyone forgets about Utah. This team does this every year and honestly, they get disrespected by the Top 25. This program is built to last and they always make noise. Arizona is perpetually awful and the focus has never been on football, always on basketball. Arizona will get blown out today, they score 16 ppg and allow 28 per game.
Picks: Utah -24, Over 54
#1 Georgia (9-0, 6-3-0 ATS) @ Tennessee (5-4, 4-5-0 ATS)
Georgia -20, O/U 56
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
3:30 ET CBS
Whether or not Georgia covers -20 comes down to one thing, will this be an offensive or a defensive battle? Georgia is 9-0, and throughout those 9 wins, they have allowed an average of 6.6 points per game. That’s sickness! Just sick, as the kids say! Nobody can overemphasize 6.6 points per game. Georgia scores 38.4 points per game to the Volunteers 38.2 per game. The Volunteers allow 28.2. We say Georgia gets its 38 and Tennessee exploits Georgia for a whopping 13 points! Georgia’s defensive line will push Tennessee around and The Vols offensive line will be glued to the turf.
Picks: Georgia -20 Under 56
#19 Purdue (6-3, 5-4-0 ATS) @ #4 Ohio State (8-1, 4-4-1 ATS)
Purdue +21, O/U 62
Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
3:30 ET ABC
Ohio State will win this game with ease, as long as they don’t go to sleep on Purdue. Stay wary, stay focused. This Buckeyes team tends to lose sight of the goal. Purdue has a couple of big wins under its belt against MSU, and Iowa. They know how to win, but will they show up with that winning mindset against OSU, or will they show up as if they are playing Wisconsin at home, and lost? The scoring disparity between the two teams is too much and we MUST lay our money on ‘Theeee’ Ohio State University!
Picks: Ohio State -21, Over 62
Minnesota (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS) @ #20 Iowa (7-2, 5-4-0 ATS)
Minnesota +5.5, ML +180/-220 O/U 37
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
3:30 ET BTN
Iowa is not as bad as #20, we know the losses, to Wisconsin and Purdue, and we must say, the Badgers are tough and better than many gave them credit for. Purdue is what Purdue is and they stepped up their game in a big way to beat them #2 Iowa. Minnesota has had the lighter schedule over the last five games and they are 4-1 as a result. They beat Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, and Purdue, and didn’t allow more than 23 points in any of those contests. Last week’s loss to Illinois was ugly, they allowed just 14 which was great but the offense was shut down entirely with just 6 on the board. This one will be close early but Iowa has more in the tank and they cover -5.5 at home.
Picks: Iowa -5.5, Under 37
Southern Miss (1-8, 1-8-0 ATS) @ #23 UTSA (9-0, 8-1-0 ATS)
Southern Miss vs. UTSA Picks
Southern Miss +33, O/U 54.5
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
3:30 ET ESPN+
Southern Miss comes in having lost eight of its last nine games. The team’s one win was against Grambling, 37-0. The only other ranked team they have played this season was back on the 25 th of September when they were destroyed by Alabama, 63-14. The one bright spot about Southern Miss is running back Frank Gore Jr. He has put up 600 yards! Like father, like son. It’s always fun to see teams like UTSA make it onto the Top 25. Every program wants this stage and this opportunity is certainly the reason they play. Can UTSA live up to -33? This is a pile of respect from Vegas. They are 8-10 ATS. This team is for real with wins over Illinois, Memphis, UNLV (they are bad but a major program), and LA Tech. We see a 45-10 kind of game.
Picks: UTSA -33 Over 54.5
Maryland (5-4, 3-6-0 ATS) #7 Michigan State (8-1, 6-2-1 ATS)
Maryland vs. Michigan State Picks
Maryland +13, ML +425/-600 O/U 62
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
4:00 ET FOX
The oddsmakers cut this one right down the middle. MSU scores 34 points per game, and they allow 22.7. Maryland scores 27.6 points per game and allows 30.4. The defensive numbers between these two tell the real story. The points differential for Michigan State is a significant factor when considering who to bet on, however, we feel that Maryland allowing 30.4 ppg is the more telling statistic. Maryland allows 153.4 ppg on the ground, and MSU puts up 198.2 yards per game, on the ground. MSU lost focus last week against Purdue, after a big win against Michigan the week before. This will not happen in this game.
Picks: Michigan State -13, Over 62
#11 Texas A&M (7-2, 6-3-0 ATS) @ #15 Ole Miss (7-2, 5-3-1 ATS)
Texas A&M -2.5, ML -135/+115, O/U 55.5
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
7:00 ET ESPN
If you are looking for a great football game whether you bet on it or not, this is your game. Both teams can score a bunch of points and we would give the automatic nod to Ole Miss in this one but we must pause, they are allowing 27 points per game. Outscoring the other team worked well against Liberty, LSU, Tennessee, and even Arkansas in a wild 52-51 finish, but we struggle with this game plan against Texas A&M. The Aggies are allowing 14.7 points per game, and we don’t see a lot different in this one. We give Ole Miss the nod at QB. Corral has a cannon and has put up 2, 527 yards, with 16 TDs and just 2 INT’s. The boy can ball! Spiller will have a big day on the ground for the Aggies against a soft D line.
Picks: Texas A&M -2 buying the hook, Under 55.5
#9 Notre Dame (8-1, 6-3-0 ATS) @ Virginia (6-3, 6-3-0 ATS)
Notre Dame -5.5, ML -220/+180, O/U 64.5
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
7:30 ET ABC
The Irish saddle up and head east to a very hostile place that offers up one of the best home crowds in all of college football. Will that matter to a team that has one loss, by way of #7 Cincinnati? Here is what’s not impressive, Virginia allowing 66 points to #25 BYU. It matters not where, in Utah or in Virginia, that was ugly. The good news for Virginia, they’re coming off a bye. The bad news for Virginia, they’re playing Notre Dame.
Picks: Notre Dame -5 buying the hook, Over 54.5
#16 NC State (7-2, 6-3-0 ATS) @ #12 Wake Forest (8-1, 4-5-0 ATS)
NC State vs. Wake Forest Picks
NC State +2, ML +110/-130, O/U 66.5
Truist Field, Winston-Salem, NC
7:30 ET ACCN
Just like last week, if this was basketball, we wouldn’t have any clue! These North Carolina rival games are a ton of fun to watch, and they are fun to bet on too. NC State is stingy, while Wake will give you everything on a silver platter. We are expecting a barnburner from the get-go, and we will be betting the first half over, every quarter over, the second half over, and certainly the over for the game. State’s defense holds up enough to get the win.
Picks: NC State +2, Over 66.5
#25 Arkansas (6-3, 5-4-0 ATS) @ LSU (4-5, 4-5-0 ATS)
Arkansas -3, ML -135/+115, O/U 59
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
7:30 ET SECN
It looks like the 20-14 showing by LSU against Alabama, meant nothing to the oddsmakers. We know that LSU is 4-5 and we know what a rival game Alabama Vs. LSU is, but if that rivalry means anything, then why didn’t the near loss have any effect on this week’s Top 25? Either Alabama should not be #2 in the nation or Arkansas should not be #25, in our minds, the Top 25 can’t have it both ways. LSU is getting better because they still have great athletes, they have great football players and at home, throw the stats out the door. We will absolutely take the +3. We called the Florida/LSU game, and we are calling our shot here.
Picks: LSU +3 Over 59
TCU (4-5, 2-6-1 ATS) @ Oklahoma State (8-1, 7-2-0 ATS)
TCU +13, ML +400/-550 O/U 54.5
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
8:00 ET FOX
TCU dug deep and found a way to beat Baylor last Saturday and we give it up to them, we did not think this team had it in them. Baylor overlooked a team that pushed its defense to the limit and they went to sleep on a good offense. Oklahoma State will not do the same. OSU allows 16.3 points per game and TCU allows 31.1 and scores 31.3 per game. OSU scores 28.8 points per game. TCU gives up 201.6 rushing yards – they will get smoked in Stillwater.
Picks: Oklahoma State -13, Under 54.5
Washington State (5-4, 6-3-0 ATS) @ #3 Oregon (8-1, 3-6-0 ATS)
Washington State vs. Oregon Picks
Washington State +14, ML +450/-650 O/U 57
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
10:30 ET ESPN
Neither team is exactly a defensive juggernaut but the stat that means the most in this matchup is yards rushing, and rushing yards allowed. Oregon has a big advantage and it will work for them today. You can count on Dye to pound the rock right down the Cougars throat and it’s going to be ugly. The Ducks have a ton of offensive weapons and it all starts on the ground, Brown under center, and a string of receivers that get it done every Saturday.
Picks: Oregon -14, Over 57
Nevada (7-2, 6-3-0 ATS) @ #22 San Diego State (8-1, 5-3-1 ATS)
Nevada vs. San Diego State Picks
Nevada +3, ML +130/-150 O/U 45.5
Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
10:30 ET CBSSN
This game is a fantastic way to end the day. Carson Strong is having a fantastic year as QB for Nevada with 3, 197 yards, 25 TDs’ 7 INTs’ and a QBR of 61.9. This season has been an amazing run for the six-foot-four Junior and if he does enter the draft after this season, he will for sure be a top 20 pick, possibly a top 10 pic. San Diego State has been solid all season with a stellar defense that’s hard to crack. Allowing just 16.7 points per game, and just one hiccup against Fresno. This will be a fun one, and a close one and one where we expect a bit more scoring than what many think. Nevada will not be held to 16, this one will be in the 20s’. We are sticking with the home team in what will be a close finish.
Picks: SDSU ML Win -150, Over 45.5
Rock and roll for this Saturday’s schedule of great college football games. Penn State Vs. Michigan, Oklahoma Vs. Baylor, NC State Vs. Wake Forest, Arkansas Vs. LSU and on the list of great games continues. There is no good reason to not make some money this weekend, whether it be on sides or totals, or props, the possibilities are endless with fantastic action. Make sure your offshore bookmaker is offering the best lines and odds along with a great matching deposit bonus. Call the bookie now and get in. Good luck.
