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What’s kind of cool this week is that there are some teams vying for spots in the four-team college football playoff that we haven’t seen. Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati will all make their pitch.
What’s uncool is that Alabama is there too, and there is talk that even if they lose the SEC title game, they could get there as a two-loss team.
And then there’s Notre Dame, which doesn’t play but could still conceivably sneak into the playoff if there are some upsets in the conference title games.
But coach Brian Kelly has already skipped out on the program, like so many other coaches do this time of year, chasing the almighty buck. That’s what sucks about the college football business.
And to think some people actually have a problem with players getting compensated?
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Parlay Betting
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Picks
Big 12 Championship @ Arlington, TX
Time: Saturday, December 4 – Noon ET
ATS Odds: Oklahoma State Cowboys -5.5 (-110) vs. Baylor Bears +5.5 (-110)
The Play: OKLAHOMA STATE -5.5 (-110)
OSU has a way of really dominating at the line of scrimmage; they have allowed just 2.8 yards per rush attempt. And they have stuffed better than 25% of their opponents’ running plays, which means they have stopped them at or short of the line of scrimmage. That’s a shame for Baylor, because they Bears may well have to achieve some real balance if they indeed have to go with freshman QB Blake Shapen in place of injured Gerry Bohanon.
And is it any place for a talented but inexperienced youngster to be facing the nation’s best pass rush (11.4% sack rate and 49 sacks!)? Hardly.
This is a rematch, like so many of these conference titles games are. And in the first meeting, Baylor was held to 47% of their season rushing average (with just 3.7 ypc), and lost by ten points even though they were gifted with three interceptions from Spencer Sanders.
As we mentioned, the hope is still there for the Cowboys, who are #5 in the playoff rankings. And they are already playing at a championship level against the pointspread, as they have gone 9-0-1 ATS in their last ten.
Appalachian State at Louisiana-Lafayette Parlay Betting
Appalachian State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Picks
Sun Belt Championship @ Lafayette, LA
Time: Saturday, December 4 – 3:30 PM ET
ATS Odds: Appalachian State Mountaineers -3 (-110) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns +3 (-110)
The Play; LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE +3 (-110)
Yes sir, “Louisiana,” as it likes to refer to itself, is in the college football playoff rankings, coming in at #24. So if there are a load of upsets Saturday…….. Oh, never mind.
We respect the leadership of QB Levi Lewis, who’s thrown 18 TD passes with only four INT’s.
And these Ragin’ Cajuns have a deep backfield. Aside from Lewis himself, there is Chris Smith, Montrell Johnson and Emani Bailey, all averaging at least 5.7 yards per carry. And they are running behind one of the best offensive lines in all of college football. Over on the right side of that line in particular, O’Cyrus Torrance and Max Mitchell will one day be taking snaps in the NFL, as is their predecessor, Robert Hunt, who was a second-round draft pick of the Miami Dolphins.
Of course, we don’t underestimate App State, which has limited its opposition to 3.4 yards per carry (12th nationally). And they have nation’s third best stuff rate. But in the previous meeting, which took place October 12, ULL rolled to 246 yards on the ground (5.6 ypc) in a 41-13 victory.
ASU has won six games in a row since the defeat to the Cajuns, who themselves have only lost to a Texas team that may have underachieved but always has a lot of talent on hand.
ULL coach Billy Napier has taken the job at Florida. But he is sticking around to coach this game. The bowl game is another matter. We’ll take the home dog.
Georgia vs. Alabama Parlay Betting
SEC Championship @ Atlanta
Time: Saturday, December 4 – 4 PM ET
ATS Odds: Georgia Bulldogs -6.5 (-110) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 (-110)
The Play: ALABAMA +6.5 (-110)
Just to give you a few superlatives, Georgia surrenders just 2.5 yards per rush attempt, 3.7 yards per play, and has the ninth best sack rate in the country (defensively).
And they have a very efficient quarterback in Stetson Bennett, who has 21 TD’s, just five INT’s and 10.8 yards an attempt.
But – surprise – Alabama has a pretty good defense too, also allowing 2.5 ypc, not far below in the other main categories, and damn good line stats, including the second-best sack rate, fifth-best power success rate and eighth best stuffed rate (all this as per the analytics site Football Outsiders).
The message we’re trying to convey is that this isn’t a case of “no comparison” between the two stop units, even though the ‘Dogs have allowed only four of 12 foes to reach double digits. And keep in mind that ‘Bama has a quarterback who won’t fold under pressure, as Bryce Young, with 69% accuracy, 40 TD’s and four INT’s in 419 attempts, is the Heisman favorite. Truth be told, Alabama’s firepower is far superior to what Georgia has faced.
And sure, Nick Saban lost to Jimbo Fisher earlier this season, but that was the first time in 25 tries that a former assistant was able to beat him. Kirby Smart just might do it, but not easily. Just sayin’….. you’ve got a bit of a cushion here with the Tide.
NCAA Football Parlay Predictions
USC at California Parlay Betting
USC vs. California Picks
Time: Saturday, December 4 – 11 PM ET
ATS Odds: California Golden Bears -4 (-110) vs. USC Trojans +4 (-110)
The Play: CALIFORNIA -4 (-110)
This is kind of the “forgotten” game amidst all the Championship Week hoopla, as it’s not for a championship at all. Instead, it intrigues on other levels. And not just because it’s a rescheduling of a game that had been previously postponed, but because USC has already named its next head coach to replace interim man Donte Williams, who had himself replaced the fired Clay Helton (who’s now at Georgia Southern).
The announcement of Lincoln Riley’s hiring has obviously made a big splash. But since he is coming in to change things around in the system, some players are already thinking about where they should transfer to, since recruits who were looking to commit to Oklahoma are following Riley to USC. One of them is five-star QB prospect Malachi Nelson.
We do admit that this team has some offense. And they showed some spirit at the Coliseum in a 35-31 loss to BYU last week. But there have been too many defensive tank jobs, including one where UCLA scored 62 points with 609 yards in the annual rivalry game.
In recent memory, Cal has been more comfortable in the underdog role, but this isn’t a bad situation laying points, as they average better than five yards a carry against a foe that gives up almost that much. Hard-nosed head coach Justin Wilcox isn’t going to let his 4-7 team go quietly, but Williams just might.
