So now, in 18 games, he’s got 17 touchdowns, and this weekend he faces a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that hasn’t always been stellar. He is listed at -135 to reach the end zone, which means you’d be laying a slightly higher price than you would on Leonard Fournette.
So we might call that “value,” under the circumstances.
Ja’Marr Chase Props Picks for Divisional Round
Time: Saturday, January 22 @ 4:30 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: +140 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
Does this sound predictable? Yeah. maybe it is. The Titans have allowed 3.9 yards per rush attempt and 84.6 rushing yards per game (second-lowest in the NFL), so that might reduce the possibilities for JoeMixon. They have surrendered just 36 yards per game and three touchdowns to tight ends, so we’d be hesitant to tab CJ Ozumah, who had a big day for the Bengals last week against the Raiders (64 yards and a touchdown).
Joe Burrow has done a very good job of spreading the ball around when he gets to the red zone. But Chase is obviously his familiar and dependable option. And he has scored eight rouchdowns as a result of throws that travelmore than 20 yards in the air. So he doesn’t have to be up close.
Cameron Brate Props Picks for Divisional Round
Rams vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Time: Sunday, January 23 @ 3 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: +450 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
Tom Brady already gets rid of the ball in a hurry. But the urgency level might go up a little more if his right tackle, Tristan Wirfs, isn’t able to play with his right ankle sprain.
We all know that Rob Gronkowski is someone he has trusted in the postseason in the past. And certainly, with wideouts like Mike Evans and Antonio Brown not available, there will be substantial attention paid to him by the Rams’ defense. But as a “longshot” possibility, Brate may work here, coming from the same position.
He has received 7.8% of the targets, but that figure increases to 16.5% when the Bucs are in the red zone. Brady trusts him well enough.
Deebo Samuel Props Picks for Divisional Round
Time: Saturday, January 22 @ 8:15 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: -105 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
Honestly, we’re not sure how much offense the Niners will wind up generating in the end with Jimmy Garoppolo’s injuries. We’re not betting on HIM busting into the end zone. However, we’re figuring that if there is anyone who is going to score for the Niners it’s going to be Samuel, who led the NFL in yards per reception.
The Thing about Samuel is that he has the ability to exploit a couple of Green Bay weaknesses – their inconsistency in keeping teams from scoring once they get into the red zone (allowing 66% TD’s) and, in his role as a running back, the Packers’ problems in slowing down the run, where they give up 4.7 yards per carry.
And maybe we should mention that Samuel scored 14 touchdowns.
Dawson Know Props Picks for Divisional Round
Time: Sunday, January 23 @ 6:30 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: +175 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
We have talked about Knox as a red zone possibility before. He has scored nine touchdowns in 49 receptions. He added two more in the playoff win over the Patriots. He has the second-most red zone targets in the Buffalo receiver corps (behind only Stefon Diggs). This is a very reliable guy, and after Diggs, the most preferred Bills receiving option.
Jerick McKinnon Prop Bets for Divisional Round
Time: Sunday, January 23 @ 6:30 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: +100 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
Okay, let’s start out by saying that we’re no crazy about the price. But did anyone notice that McKinnon’s 142 yards from scrimmage were the most of any player in the wildcard round? Hie strength is that he is a threat not just running the ball, but catching it too, which means you could see him on the field in almost any given situation.
You may remember that after Kyle Shanahan took over as coach of the 49ers, he was tickled to death to have a dual-purpose guy like McKinnon. The problem is that injuries kept him off the field. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is likely going to play Sunday, but we don’t think he’s going to have the primary role in the backfield. For the time being, McKinnon, who has scored touchdowns in each of his last two games, has earned it.