NFL Average Depth of Target (aDOT) Explained

Average depth of target (aDOT) is an advanced football metric that can take your NFL betting to the next level. Of course, there are many different factors to consider when it comes to betting on the NFL, but certain stats matter more than others.

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Below, we cover everything there is to know about aDOT. After explaining the metric and how to use it when betting, we outline how aDOT is calculated and discuss the disadvantages that come with using the statistic.

What is aDOT?

Average depth of target is a metric that measures how far downfield a player is, on average, when the ball is thrown to them. In other words, aDOT calculates where a player is when the ball reaches them or otherwise.

The starting point is where the ball is snapped, irrespective of how far the quarterback drops before they make their throw. This can give you a greater understanding of where a player is catching the ball on the field.

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How to Use aDOT When Betting

Essentially, aDOT signals opportunity. Since it measures a player’s running routes, it can be used as a helpful indicator when it comes to predicting how a player will perform with their targets.

If a player has a low aDOT, it means they’re receiving a short pass close to the line of scrimmage. Consequently, their chances of making big plays are reduced. On the flip side, a high aDOT means that a player is much closer to big plays and big yards.

Average depth of target can help with several football betting markets, including player futures, props and even fantasy betting. If you can use a player’s aDOT to your advantage, you could get the better of the bookies and land a tasty profit.

How is aDOT Calculated?

To calculate aDOT, you take the number of yards the ball traveled to get to the player (air yards) on all their targets, and then divide that number by the total number of targets they received.

For example, if a player received 1,000 air yards and saw 100 targets throughout a season, their aDOT would be 10.0. If a player’s targets in a game were one yard and 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, their aDOT would be 10.5.

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Cons of Using aDOT

It is worth remembering that a receiver’s role can change drastically. Just because a player has a specific role in a team for a certain game or season, it doesn’t mean that it will be the same in the next game or season.

Let’s take Robby Anderson, for example. Anderson posted an aDOT of 15.1 in 2019, operating as a deep threat for the New York Jets. However, he joined the Carolina Panthers in 2020 and registered an aDOT of 9.8 in a possession-based role.

Although advanced metrics like aDOT can be useful when betting on the NFL, you shouldn’t rely solely on the stats to win bets.

Read our tips for betting on NFL totals next.