NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy and Tips

With the NFL now playing 17 games during the regular season, it’s more important than ever to have a bye week, but when the bye week is scheduled is also a factor.

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What having a well-placed bye week can do for NFL teams during the season is invaluable. This season, the NFL will start having a few teams off per week starting in week 6.

What Is a Bye Week?

The NFL builds in one bye week for every team during the regular season. To help keep a somewhat balanced schedule, the league sets this up, so every team isn’t off at the same time.

All teams will have one week off between week 6 and 14 of the regular season. The highest number of teams that will be off at once is six.

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Does Rest Help?

From a betting perspective, there isn’t a real edge to be had for teams coming off a bye week. Since not every team can be off at once, usually, teams coming off a bye will play a team that already had their bye or has yet to have their bye. This creates a situation where theoretically, one team should be more well rested than another.

However, during the 2020 season, NFL teams went 17-15 straight up and 14-18 against the spread after the bye. Over the past three NFL seasons, teams that are coming off a bye have a losing record straight up and against the spread.

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Best Teams Against the Spread Following a Bye

It is no surprise that the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, and Indianapolis Colts are 7-3 straight up following a week off the past ten seasons. All of those teams have had sustained runs of success and were good throughout the season, no matter what their respective situation was.

More surprising is Detroit, which has largely struggled to stay relevant over the past ten years, is 7-3 straight up when coming off a bye week.

Against the spread, Miami is 5-0 over the previous five years following a bye, which is a bit surprising. While the Dolphins have had some success, they haven’t exactly been Super Bowl contenders for all of those seasons.

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How to Bet Following a Bye Week

While having a week off work is always nice, byes don’t cure all ills. Players with long-term injuries won’t magically heal thanks to a week off work.

During the playoffs, byes have also been attributed to teams losing their edge and taking upset losses. When it comes to betting on these games, which feature teams coming off some rest, it is important to do the regular research that comes with betting.

Check the weather report, the injury report and keep an eye on the performance of teams over the course of the season. While there may be a key player or two that returns from injury to help teams win games, there is a chance having a weak impact may not benefit the resting team at all. In some cases, it may result in a lethargic performance.

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