NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds & Best Bets

One of the great things about sports is that it gives fans the opportunity to see amazing stories. A certain player is basically left for dead after an injury or a poor performance and then he rises up once again to become the conquering hero.

Last year in the NFL, it was Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill. After being traded out of Miami, Tannehill was supposed to be the Titans backup last season. That changed when Tannehill took over the starting job around the midpoint of the year. He led Tennessee all the way to the AFC championship game.

Who will it be for the 2020 NFL season? There are plenty of quality candidates, but this year’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year award is likely a two-horse race.

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Greatest Comeback Ever

Alex Smith was Washington’s quarterback in 2018 until he suffered a gruesome leg injury. The injury almost killed him. He and his doctors even considered amputation before a number of procedures saved it.

Smith was just recently cleared for football activity. Smith’s special on ESPN documenting his comeback is inspirational enough. Having him actually play in 2020 would be remarkable.

With the announcement that he can play, Smith vaulted to the top of futures board as a +300 favorite to win this year’s Comeback POY. It’s extremely unlikely though. Washington has Dwayne Haskins, who they drafted in the first round in 2019, and Kyle Allen, who started 13 games for Carolina last season.

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The Two Horses

The battle for the 2020 Comeback POY award really comes down to two – Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger. Newton missed most of last season with a foot injury and was eventually released by the Carolina Panthers.

He was struggling the past two seasons in Carolina and the Panthers weren’t making the playoffs. The franchise decided to move on from coach Ron Rivera and from Newton.

Now, the former MVP has found a home in New England. He’ll play for Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels who will no doubt structure the offense to fit Newton’s skill set. With Newton leading the Patriots to the postseason, the potential is there to cash in on Newton at +500 to win.

Roethlisberger injured an elbow in Week 2 and missed the rest of the 2019 season. He was coming off a career-high 5,129 yards in 2018. He’ll have a number of weapons, including JuJu Smith-Schuster, to work with in 2020. With Roethlisberger piling up the numbers in Pittsburgh’s offense, it makes sense to back Big Ben at +500 in the race for the Comeback POY.

Others to Watch

Detroit’s Matthew Stafford is listed at +700 to win after missing half of the 2019 season. The problem Stafford faces is playing for the Lions, a perennial loser. He does, however, put up solid numbers. Stafford threw for at least 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in seven straight seasons from 2011 to 2017.

Non-quarterbacks to watch include Tampa Bay TE Rob Gronkowski, who followed former teammate Tom Brady to the Bucs. Gronkowski, who is listed at +700, actually won this award back in 2014. Gronkowski is coming out of retirement to play for the Bucs.

Wide receiver A.J. Green and DE J.J. Watt are both listed at +900 and are both coming off of injury-filled seasons. Watt is a former NFL Defensive Player of the Year winner. Green is a seven-time Pro Bowler who will have rookie No. 1 draft pick Joe Burrow as his quarterback.

Longshots

The best longshot candidates for the award in 2020 include former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. He will start the 2020 season with his third team in three seasons. If Foles leads Chicago to the postseason, he could pay off at +1000.

The other interesting bet would be on Cleveland DE Myles Garrett. The former No. 1 overall pick had 10 sacks in 10 games but missed the rest of the season after being suspended for an on-field altercation with Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph. Garrett had 13.5 sacks in 2018 and is a rising star. At +1400 to win, it’s a wager worth considering.