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The online sportsbooks cleaned up during the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs with three of four underdogs winning their game straight-up. The total also stayed UNDER the closing line in all three of those stunning upsets.
With the NFL postseason field down to the final four teams, this Sunday’s AFC and NFC Championships will set the stage for an eventual showdown in Super Bowl LVI. Putting my handicapping skills to test for each matchup, here are my over/under picks for both match-ups.
2022 AFC Championship Game Total Prediction
Best Bet: OVER 54.5 Points
Cincinnati has to be the biggest surprise in this next round of the playoffs as the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Bengals were able to grind out a last-second 19-16 road win against No. 1 Tennessee in a game that stayed well UNDER the 48.5-point closing line. The total has now stayed UNDER in five of their last six games.
Kansas City outlasted Buffalo in overtime to advance to its fourth-straight AFC Championship. The total went well OVER 54 points in that 42-36 thriller. The total has now gone OVER in the Chiefs’ last seven games this season.
Sunday’s game is a rematch of a Week 17 clash in which the Bengals prevailed 34-31 closing as 3.5-point home underdogs. The total went OVER 51 points in that game. That betting line has been bumped up to 54.5 points for this meeting with the early betting consensus leaning heavily towards the OVER.
I would tend to agree with the bet on the OVER since the only way Cincinnati is going to win this game is by outscoring the high-powered Chiefs’ offense. Stopping them on defense does not appear to be an option. The total has stayed UNDER in six of Kansas City’s last seven home games against the Bengals, but you can heavily discount that trend with Joe Burrow at quarterback for Cincinnati and Patrick Mahomes under center for the Chiefs.
2022 NFC Championship Game Total Prediction
Best Bet: UNDER 46.5 Points
San Francisco will be going for the three-game season sweep over the NFC West rival LA Rams. The first meeting on Nov. 15 stayed UNDER 50 points in the 49ers’ 31-10 victory at home. In the final game of the regular season, San Francisco erased a 17-0 first half deficit to beat the Rams on the road 27-24. The total went OVER 46.5 points in that game.
LA almost blew another huge lead in Sunday’s 30-27 squeaker against Tampa Bay. All the pressure in the world is on the Rams in this Sunday showdown as 3.5-point home favorites, but it is extremely hard to beat any NFL team three times in the same season, especially when it is a bitter division rival.
My lean in this game is on the 49ers with the crucial half-point edge on the 3.5-point spread. I see this as a three-point game either way. My “best bet” pick for the NFC Championship is the UNDER on the current 46.5-point total line. This is also going to be a tight play either way. The total has stayed UNDER in six of San Francisco’s last seven games. It has also stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings between these two teams.
