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Last weekend marked what was very likely the best set of NFL divisional playoff games ever in the Super Bowl era. All four games were decided by walk-off scores finishing with the epic Sunday night Bills-Chiefs game that saw three lead changes and 25 points scored in the final two minutes of regulation play.
In the end, three of four road underdogs were victorious. Can the conference championship weekend top that? We shall see.
2022 AFC Championship Game Point Spread
The Bengals and Chiefs played in Week 17 in a game that was a tale of two halves. In the first half, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was all over the Bengals defense and Kansas City led 28-14 at halftime.
After the half, it was the Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase show. Chase would end the game with 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns. The Cincy defense would hold the Chiefs to just three second half points.
Both teams have some weaknesses though. In that earlier game, Kansas City sacked Burrow four times. Last week in their win over Tennessee, the Titans sacked Burrow nine times. If it wasn’t for the Bengals three interceptions of Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill, it could have been a different story.
Similarly, the Chiefs have some difficulties in pass defense. They allowed Burrow to throw all over them in that Week 17 game. Last week, Kansas City gave up two touchdowns to Buffalo QB Josh Allen in the game’s final two minutes and needed overtime to win the game.
Both teams are doing well against the spread lately. Cincy is 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in their last ten. The difference could be where the closing spread ends up. Currently, the Chiefs are a 7-point favorite.
At some sportsbooks, the spread is as high as 7.5. Kansas City with Mahomes at quarterback is 13-15-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.
In conference championship games since 2004 with a favorite of more than a field goal, the favorite is 15-8 ATS. In games where the two teams played each other earlier in the season, the favorite is 6-2 ATS. Edge goes to KC.
Best ATS Pick: CHIEFS -7
2022 NFC Championship Game Point Spread
Like the AFC title game, the NFC championship features two teams that played each other in the regular season. The 49ers and Rams played each other twice since they are both in the NFC West. The 49ers swept the Rams this season. In fact, the Niners have swept the Rams in three straight seasons winning six in a row.
They played in the regular season finale and San Francisco needed overtime to win 27-24. That victory is what got the Niners into the playoffs. It shouldn’t have been that close. San Francisco outgained the Rams 449 to 265.
The Niners shut the Rams down in the second half and ended up sacking QB Matthew Stafford five times. In the first game of the season, the 49ers picked Stafford off on the Rams first two drives, ran for 156 yards, and won easily 31-10.
There is a history of division matchups in NFL playoff games. Since 2003, the road team is 15-8-1 ATS and home teams have failed to cover in eight straight such games until this season. The team that has the lower winning percentage is 14-6-1 ATS and teams that won the last game by a touchdown or less (as the Niners did) are 8-5 ATS.
Plus, Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is 27-18 ATS as an underdog and his QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 11-3 ATS as a road underdog. Oh, and Shanahan is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS against Rams head coach Sean McVay.
Best ATS Pick: NINERS +3.5
