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The NFL divisional round playoffs are all set for this weekend. The remaining eight teams are all vying for a shot at their respective conference championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.
Green Bay still remains the overall Super Bowl favorite. Tennessee, the AFC’s top seed, is not among the top four favorites to win the Super Bowl. Just a few seasons ago, the Titans pulled one of the more memorable divisional round playoff upsets. Will it happen again?
Here’s a look at how bettors might find value with these NFL divisional round moneyline picks.
Bengals vs. Titans Money Line
It wasn’t that long ago that a sixth-seeded Titans team took down the No. 1 seed (Baltimore) in the NFL playoffs. Now, the Titans are No. 1 taking on a Bengals team that has never – repeat never – won a road playoff game.
The Bengals won their first playoff game in three decades last week, but will be down at least one defensive starter on Saturday. DT Larry Ogunjobi is out with a foot injury. LB Trey Hendrickson suffered a concussion and is questionable.
RB Derrick Henry is back for Tennessee, which won its final three games of the season. In their final five, the Titans held their opponents to just 12.8 points per game. The Titans defense often gets overlooked, and that will be the difference.
Best Moneyline Pick: TITANS -180
49ers vs. Packers Money Line
It was the 49ers that pulled the upset last week eliminating Dallas from the postseason. Now, they head to Green Bay where the Packers are 8-0 this season. They have won 14 of their last 15 at Lambeau Field. The only loss was to Tampa Bay in last year’s NFC championship game.
The Niners could be without DE Nick Bosa and linebacker and leading tackler Fred Warner on Saturday. That would be problematic for San Francisco. Green Bay is 9-2 against the 49ers in the last 11 games. That includes a 30-28 win earlier this season.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has never beaten San Francisco in a playoff game. He’s 0-3 in his career. That’s about to change.
Best Moneyline Pick: PACKERS -250
Rams vs. Buccaneers Money Line
Rams QB Matthew Stafford won his first career playoff game last week. Interestingly, Stafford has beaten a team with a winning record just four times in career games played in November or later. Four wins…ever. And one of them was last week.
The Bucs Tom Brady has plenty of wins against winning teams late in seasons. Don’t forget, he has seven Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts. In playoff games where the spread is three points in either direction, Brady is 9-3 ATS and has covered by an average of 6.2 points.
Sometimes, games come down to the quarterback. This is one of them…and Brady wins.
Best Moneyline Pick: BUCCANEERS -150
Bills vs. Chiefs Money Line
At this point in the season, Buffalo may have the best combination of offense and defense in the NFL. They lead the league in pass defense as well as scoring defense. Last week, they put on an offensive clinic with touchdowns on each of their first seven scoring drives in a 47-17 win over New England.
The Chiefs have plenty of offense as well. After a slow start last week, Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes in a span of roughly 12 minutes. The Chiefs started slow this season going 3-4 through their first seven games. Since then, they have won 10 of 11 games with a much-improved defense added to the Mahomes-led offense.
Speaking of Mahomes, he is just 9-10 ATS at Arrowhead in his last 19 home games. Bills QB Josh Allen, who also threw five touchdowns last week, thrives as an underdog. He is 10-5-2 ATS as a road underdog, which means he can keep this game close enough to win it in the end.
Best Moneyline Pick: BILLS +110
