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The NFL’s divisional round of the postseason is all set after the Rams beat Arizona on Monday night to advance. Green Bay remains the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl in the futures market.
They will take on San Francisco this weekend. The 49ers did exactly as we said and pulled the upset over Dallas this week. Winning at Lambeau Field presents another challenge this week.
Here is a look at the NFL divisional round point spread picks.
49ers vs. Packers Point Spread
As mentioned, San Francisco heads to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Saturday night. Rodgers and his team beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season. The Packers defense held the Niners to 67 yards rushing and WR Davante Adams had 132 receiving yards in Green Bay’s 30- 28 victory.
While Rodgers beat San Francisco earlier this season, he has never beaten the Niners in a playoff game. The Green Bay quarterback is 0-3 against the 49ers in the postseason. Still, it’s hard to bet against him, especially when he’s playing at home.
Rodgers is 69-37-4 ATS in games at Lambeau Field (regular season and playoffs). The other interesting stat is that Rodgers is 12-5-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Green Bay should be as healthy as it has been all season. OT David Bakhtiari and CB Jaire Alexander are both expected back. San Francisco DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner are both questionable. Lean Packers at home.
Best ATS Pick: PACKERS -6
Rams vs. Buccaneers Point Spread
The Rams beat Tampa Bay back in Week 3 of the regular season. That’s when the Rams offense was at its best. L.A. did beat Arizona in last week’s wild card game, but QB Matthew Stafford has not been at his best over the latter half of the season.
Since Week 9, Stafford threw 11 interceptions and ended up tied for first in the NFL with 17. Four of those 11 picks were returned for touchdowns too. Stafford also has not done well in late-season games. In his entire career, Stafford has won just four games from the month of November on. One of them was just on Monday night.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, has won many late-season games, including seven Super Bowls. The Bucs may have the best offense in football. Brady led the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns and the running game finished in the top five.
In playoff games where the spread is three points or less in either direction, Brady is 9-3 ATS and covered those games by an average of 6.2 points.
Best ATS Pick: BUCCANEERS -3
Bengals vs. Titans Point Spread
The Titans aren’t your typical No. 1 seed which is why they have been overlooked in the Super Bowl futures market. But, Tennessee will get All-Pro RB Derrick Henry back. Henry injured a foot and missed the last ten weeks of the season. The Titans were still the fifth-best rushing attack in the league without Henry.
Also lost in the shuffle is how good Tennessee’s defense is. The Titans were fifth against the run and eighth in scoring defense allowing 20.1 points per game this season. Surprisingly, the Bengals have almost identical numbers to the Titans.
Cincy has the edge in the passing game where QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase have been lighting up opposing defenses. In this spot historically No. 1 seeds have tended to be overrated. In divisional round action, underdogs are 23-12-1 ATS when playing the No. 1 seed. It’s hard not to like Cincy in this spot given that they went 4-1 ATS as road underdogs this season.
Best ATS Pick: BENGALS +4
Bills vs. Chiefs Point Spread
The Bills just might have the best combination of offense and defense of any team remaining in the playoffs. Buffalo has the best defense in the league. They are No. 1 against the pass and in scoring defense.
In last week’s wild card win over New England, the Bills put on an offensive clinic scoring touchdowns on each of their first seven possessions. The Bills never punted the entire game and won 47-17.
The Chiefs started the season 3-4 with one of the losses to Buffalo. KC lost 38-20 at Arrowhead Stadium back in September. Since then, the Chiefs have been outstanding. They won eight straight games at one point and are 11-2 in their last 13.
What’s interesting though is that Kansas City, not known for its ability against the number, is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. However, QB Patrick Mahomes is 9-10 ATS in his last 19 games at Arrowhead. Plus, Buffalo QB Josh Allen, who threw five touchdowns last week just as Mahomes did, is 10-5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Best ATS Pick: BILLS +2.5
