NFL Draft Betting – Where’s the Value?

The 2019 NFL season is long gone and if the XFL isn’t enough to tide you over, it’s time to take a long, hard look at the NFL Draft. The annual league combine concluded last week in Indianapolis and a couple 40-yard dash times should make the first round interesting.

If you’re a true fan of the game, you know the entire draft is full of excitement. The big question though is where can a bettor find some betting value? Don’t worry; there’s plenty.

Joe Burrow & the First Pick

After a horrendous 2-14 campaign, the Cincinnati Bengals own the first pick in this year’s draft.

All indications are that current QB Andy Dalton is on the way out, paving the way for second-year head coach Zac Taylor to take Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow.

The former LSU star hails from Athens, Ohio, and is the favorite at -1150 (BetOnline) to go first.

A lot can change between now and April 23, the first day of the 2020 NFL Draft, but Burrow will most likely go No. 1. Betting on Burrow to go first is a sure bet, but not a value pick. For value, we have to take a look at Ohio State DE Chase Young.

Highlights: Chase Young Declares for 2020 NFL Draft | Ohio State | B1G Football

Young did not participate at the NFL Combine, but he didn’t really need to.

Young, who is 6-5 and 264 pounds, led the nation with 16.5 sacks last season and had to miss two games due to a suspension. He won every major college football award for a defensive player and is given +550 odds to be the top overall pick.

Should Cincinnati trade down, or even sign a quarterback before the draft, Young could be the top pick. The only other player that may sneak in and go No. 1 would OT Andrew Thomas (+1400).

Tua Be or Not Tua Be

Ah, what team will draft former Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa?

He burst onto the college football scene as a freshman back in 2017 when he threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the College Football Playoff national championship game.

After an outstanding sophomore campaign and an injury-riddled junior season, Tagovailoa enters the NFL draft coming off of a hip injury. He is still viewed as worthy of a first-round draft pick. The question is simply who will take him?

HOW TO BET NFL FUTRES AND PROPS

You can bet on that and the favorite is Miami at +150.

The Dolphins acquired Josh Rosen last April, but aren’t sold that he is the quarterback of the future. A more interesting bet would be on the Detroit Lions where the situation with Matthew Stafford is tenuous. Tua ending up in Detroit checks in at +275.

The real value bet on where Tua lands in the draft is on the Los Angeles Chargers.

Philip Rivers, the long-time veteran, is moving on in free agency and head coach Anthony Lynn needs his quarterback of the future. Tua to the Chargers brings a nice payday at +700.

How Many 1st Round QBs?

There’s no question that success in the NFL is directly proportional to the quarterback position. As stated, it would be a huge surprise if Cincinnati did not take Burrow. You can bet on that, by the way, taking the “No, the Bengals won’t take Burrow No. 1” at +1500.

Tua, of course, is the another sure first-round quarterback as the NFL shifts gears and doesn’t mind the smaller, more versatile signal-caller, a la last year’s first pick Kyler Murray.

Oregon’s Justin Herbert, who has typical NFL size at 6-foot-6, is a solid athlete as well with 4.68 speed and a 35.5-inch vertical jump. Plus, he’s proven he can make plays on the big stage. Herbert was considered a first-round pick if he would have come out last year. The same holds true this year.

Utah State’s Jordan Love was a skinny 6-3, 170-pounder coming out of high school. He has blossomed into a 6-4, 225-pound athlete. Love has been called the poor man’s Patrick Mahomes. He makes plenty of plays with his feet and looked very comfortable throwing the ball at the NFL combine.

One of the 32 NFL teams is sure to take Love in the first round.

With the Over/Under set at 4.0 or 4.5, the big question then is will former Georgia QB Jake Fromm or Washington’s Jacob Eason go in the first round. With the importance of the position, five or six could go in Round 1 making the Over at +110 a strong bet.