NFL Expected Points Added (EPA) Explained

Do you want to take your NFL betting to the next level? If that is the case, we highly recommend using advanced metrics and statistics to gain an edge over the bookies.

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One of the most useful advanced metrics is expected points added (EPA). In this guide, we explain the fundamentals of EPA and how to use the metric when betting on football.

What is EPA?

Expected points added is a helpful metric that measures the number of expected points added (or lost) on a play.

Using historical data and statistics based upon the down, distance and field position, EPA can determine the average number of points scored from a specific situation.

EPA can be used to assess teams in terms of formations and play types. It can also be used to evaluate players and matchups in different areas on the field.

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How to Use EPA When Betting

Bettors can make use of expected points added in many ways. That said, EPA is particularly popular when it comes to analyzing quarterbacks, especially for EPA per drop back.

EPA can also be used as a helpful matchup tool. Not only can you assess a team’s ability to use or defend a certain play, but you can also compare that to the opponent’s proficiency.

Ultimately, different bettors utilize EPA for different markets. We recommend exploring all the NFL betting options and finding what works for you.

How is EPA Calculated?

You’re probably wondering how expected points added is calculated, right? Lucky for you, we break down the formula below.

Essentially, the point expectancy before a play (first and 10 at a team’s own 25) is compared to the point expectancy after this play (a 30-yard completion to the opponent’s 45). The difference between these two figures is the EPA.

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Cons of Using EPA

While expected points added can be very useful when it comes to betting on the NFL, the metric has its disadvantages. In this section, we go over the cons of using EPA.

Since EPA is not adjusted for each opponent, it can be misleading. If a team goes through a tricky schedule of games, the EPA stats may be skewed for future games.

On top of that, there are question marks over the metric’s ability to eliminate individual players’ offerings towards EPA, casting doubt on the accuracy and precision of the metric’s predictiveness.

Learn how NFL DVOA works in our next betting guide.