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This season’s NFL playoffs kicked things off last weekend with six games in the opening Wild Card Round.
With the Los Angeles Rams 34-11 romp over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night, five of six favorites won their games both straight-up and against the spread with the total staying UNDER in four of the six showdowns.
Moving to the four matchups in this weekend’s Division Round of games, here are my “best bet” picks for betting lines on the NFL total.
Bengals at Titans Total for Divisional Round
Best Bet: UNDER 47
The Bengals got past the Las Vegas Raiders in a Wild Card win that stayed UNDER the closing 48.5-point line. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. As the top seed in the AFC, Tennessee is coming off a bye. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Titans’ last seven regular season contests.
The early betting consensus favors the OVER on Saturday, but I am looking for a lower scoring game than expected. Tennessee’s defense and pounding running game with the anticipated return of Derrick Henry should dictate the pace of play.
49ers at Packers Total for Divisional Round
Best Bet : OVER 47.5
San Francisco is on a major roll after beating the Rams in Week 18 and the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday on the road to advance to this game. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the 49ers’ last six games. Green Bay is well rested as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The total has gone OVER in five of the Packers’ previous six outings.
Barring a blizzard in Green Bay this Saturday, the winner of this game is going to have to outscore the other. The Packers should get the win on their home field, but San Francisco is more than capable of making them work for it.
Rams at Buccaneers Total for Divisional Round
Rams vs. Buccaneers Predictions
Best Bet: OVER 48.5
The Rams tallied 34 points on Monday night in their highest scoring total over the last six games. Tampa Bay scored 31 points in its romp over Philadelphia last Sunday afternoon. The Buccaneers have scored at least 28 points in each of their last four matchups.
This game has the heaviest betting consensus for the OVER on the total at 89%. The books may know something I do not. Yet, I would have to agree with the betting public on this play. Tampa Bay may contribute the most points of the two, but the Rams should put some points on the board as well.
Bills at Chiefs Total for Divisional Round
Best Bet: UNDER 55
Buffalo scored at will against New England in last Saturday’s 47-17 victory on its home field. Duplicating that performance on the road against Kansas City will be a whole other story. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 21 points in each of their last seven games played at home.
I am going against the current betting consensus of the total line at 70% for the OVER. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 18 games between these two AFC foes as a long-term betting trend. As good as each of these offenses have looked lately, I think the Chiefs’ defense will rise to the occasion late Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead.
