NFL Preseason Week 1: Top Five ATS Predictions

There are certainly a number of factors that could go into handicapping a preseason football game. In fact, in many ways it could be less of a dilemma than it is in the regular season. That is because, unlike the regular season, there are coaches who are motivated to win going up against coaches who really couldn’t care less.

Maybe what a lot of bettors don’t realize is that for many of the players involved, it’s the biggest game of their lives, since they are fighting for a roster spot and the chance to have a career in the NFL. But it’s the coaches who call the plays; who determine how much playing time everybody gets and who make almost all the situational decisions during the game.

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They are the first thing I look at. And you will see that a certain number of coaches have a consistent pattern through the years of covering the spread in the exhibition season. Those are the guys we like to zero in on if we can.

Sure, it is important to consider the quarterback rotations and I look at that too. Generally I like to see that these backups who are playing (starters get limited or no playing time) have had some experience in the system. But that won’t always work; in the Dallas-Pittsburgh game, five of the six QB’s (three of which were with Dallas) knew the system, yet only 16 points were scored. There are a LOT of new people playing in these offenses.

Another way to bet the NFL preseason is to focus on NFL player props.

Let’s look at five strong preseason plays for the first full week of action:

NFL Preseason Week 1 Against the Spread Picks

New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens Preview

Time: Saturday, August 14th at 7:00 PM ET

ATS Odds: New Orleans Saints +3 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105)

The Play: RAVENS -3

We understand that Saints coach Sean Payton would like to create a spirited competition between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill to see who is going to succeed Drew Brees as the starting quarterback, but these guys have been in the NFL, and such a determination might have more to do with what happens in practice than anything else.

The fact is, Payton has covered just seven of his last 21 preseason games. And meanwhile, he is running into one of the all-time preseason buzzsaws in John Harbaugh, always known as a guy who looks for full effort and victory during the exhibition schedule.

To what degree? Well, under him, the Ravens have won 17 consecutive preseason contests, with a 15-1-1 ATS mark over that stretch, And backups Trace McSorley and Tyler Huntley have experience in the system.

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Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview

Time: Saturday, August 14th at 1:00 PM ET

ATS Odds: Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings +1.5

The Play: VIKINGS +1.5

I’m certain that Vic Fangio feels some urgency to keep his job. And he is widely considered to be one of the favorites to be fired first. But even with Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater opposing each other for the starting QB job, that does not necessarily create an edge.

Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer is another of those guys who loves to win in the preseason. And he has done so, to the tune of a 17-8 ATS record (68%) in his career.

There is a bit of a catch here, though. Quarterbacks Kellen Mond, Kirk Cousins and Nate Stanley tested positive for COVID, putting them into the protocol and costing them some valuable practice time. You will have to check on their status as the game appoaches, but Jake Browning is likely to get a lot of time.

So, while I might normally be overjoyed by Zimmer being a home dog, this game will be closer than many expect. However, I’m still grabbing the points.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders Preview

Time: Saturday, August 14th at 9:00 PM ET

ATS Odds: Seattle Seahawks +1.5 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-110)

The Play: RAIDERS -1.5

This game pits two of the NFL’s titans in preseason play against each other. Carroll is 37-17 ATS during exhibition time, but Gruden has gone 18-8-2 ATS over his last 28 games. Of course, those games go back a ways, but it does indicate that he’s never been averse to winning in the preseason. He is 6-2 ATS his second time around with the Raiders.

Between these two, if there is a guy who really needs to come up with some answers, it’s Gruden. After Derek Carr, he’s got Marcus Mariota and Nathan Peterman in reserve. Peterman may have gotten the “yips” with the Bills, but he completed 60 of 87 passes with three TD’s and no INT’s in the 2019 preseason.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

Time: Saturday, August 14th at 7:00 PM ET

ATS Odds: Cleveland Browns +2 (-115) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -2 (-105)

The Play: JAGUARS -2

Since there was no 2020 preseason, Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski is doing this for the first time as a head coach. But Urban Meyer is a different story. He’s got one of the great records among college football coaches, but this is his first go-around in the NFL, in any role.

Therefore, he has never coached in any game he wasn’t really trying to win. That may be a factor coming out of the gate. It was for others, like Jimmy Johnson.

It’s tough to tell how much Trevor Lawrence is going to play. Remember, he had some surgery on his non-throwing shoulder during the off-season. But even if he sits, that may not hurt the Jags. Gardner Minshew has taken the attitude that being “#2 is not an option.” So you’ll see something spirited out of him. And with CJ Beathard and Jake Luton also taking snaps, the Jags should be in pretty good shape at the quarterback position for this one.

Carolina Panthers vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview

Time: Sunday, August 15th at 1:00 PM ET

ATS Odds: Carolina Panthers +1.5 (-110) vs. Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-110)

The Play: CAROLINA +1.5

It’s hard to come to a conclusion about Frank Reich as a preseason head coach – he went 3-1 ATS in his first season and then 1-3 ATS in his second. We do know that for years he was part of a Buffalo Bills team that made it a point to lay down in exhibition games under Marv Levy.

He isn’t going to have Carson Wentz for a while (minor foot surgery) and that’s a blow. But Jacob Eason has been getting first-team snaps. Sam Ehlinger is somebody Reich seems to like, but the rookie from Texas has a long way to go.

Who knows what role Sam Darnold will play in this game, but head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have a lot of faith in him. PJ Walker and Will Grier, both capable in this kind of atmosphere, will be dueling for the #2 QB spot.

Read our guide teaching new bettors how to bet on NFL point spreads.