NFL Target Share Explained

If you’re a fan of the NFL and football in general, the chances are that you’re familiar with the term ‘target share’. That said, many people don’t know how to make the most of target share stats, especially when it comes to betting.

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Lucky for you, we created this guide to explain everything there is to know about target share. Not only do we highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using target share, but we also share some useful target share betting tips.

What is Target Share?

Target share describes the number of targets that a football player receives. The metric can be measured during a single game or across an entire season, depending on the information you require.

For those unaware, targets are passes thrown by a quarterback in the direction of a receiver or tight end. A target gives a receiver the chance to catch the ball and instigate a positive offensive play for their team.

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How to Use Target Share When Betting

A football player’s target share is an important statistic that can tell you how much of an impact they make on their team’s offensive plays. As a result, target share stats can be hugely beneficial when it comes to betting on the NFL.

If a player has a high target share, they will likely be the focal point of their team’s offense. On the flip side, a player with a low target share will have a smaller role to play for their team.

It is worth noting that receivers and tight ends generally have the highest target shares. With that in mind, you can use target share stats to aid your NFL player prop bets and other offensive betting markets.

How is Target Share Calculated?

Target share is calculated by dividing the total number of targets received by the total number of passes attempted by the quarterback. The subsequent percentage will be the player’s target share.

For example, if a quarterback threw 40 passes in a game and a wide receiver registered 10 targets, the target share would be 25%. You get that percentage by carrying out the following equation:

10 ÷ 40 = 0.25 (25%)

Remember – you can also calculate target share across an entire season. If a quarterback threw 500 passes in a season and the receiver registered 50 targets, the target share would be 10%. The equation is as follows.

50 ÷ 500 = 0.1 (10%)

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Cons of Using Target Share

While using target share statistics can be beneficial, the metric is not 100% reliable. After all, players can have opportunties increase or decrease for their team midway through the season, which can skew the target share stats.

On top of that, in order to make the most of target share statistics, it pays to know a lot about other advanced NFL metrics. That means getting to grips with DVOA, CPOE, EPA, aDOT and similar advanced metrics.