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Usually we take four or five different games and give you a team total from each of them.
But obviously the schedule necessitates we do something different this week.
Here we will present a team total outlook for each of the four teams that will compete in the two conference championship games, and that would naturally give you some insight as to what we think about the game totals for those contests.
Cincinnati Bengals Team Total
Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 3:05 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Cincinnati Bengals – Over 23.5 Points (-120) / Under 23.5 Points (-110)
The Play: BENGALS OVER 23.5 POINTS (-120)
I don’t think there is any question that Joe Burrow is going to get sacked in this game. His offensive line has been sub-par, and his running backs are God-awful in pass-protection. So it does become something of an open invitation for the Kansas City pass rush. But it wasn’t all that much different when these teams met four weeks ago. And in that game, Burrow threw for 446 yards in a 34-31 Cincinnati win. The fact is, when Burrow ISN’T getting sacked (or picked off), he is doing almost nothing but good things.
He is, at the same time, the most accurate passer in the league (70.4% completions) and the one with the highest yards-per-attempt average (8.9), and that’s not necessarily easy to do. He has the best “bad throw percentage” and the best “on-target” rate. Over the last six games, he has thrown 13 TD passes with only one interception. Ja’Marr Chase had an insane 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting, and do you really think the Chiefs have figured out a way to stop him?
We have been singing the praises of the KC defense, but one has to wonder whether some of that might just be a mirage. During this surge of theirs, they have allowed more than 400 yards on four different occasions.And Cincinnati fits the profile of the kind of team that can move the ball on them. Did you see how wide open some of those Buffalo receivers were last week?
Kansas City Chiefs Team Total
Team Totals Odds: Kansas City Chiefs – Over 31.5 Points (-127) / Under 31.5 Points (-103)
The Play: CHIEFS OVER 31.5 POINTS (-127)
I’m perfectly fine forecasting a donnybrook at Arrowhead (as it looks as if the weather will permit it). The Cincinnati defense is not horrible at all; they ranked fifth and seventh in yards and points allowed per drive, respectively. But last week Kansas City took a Buffalo stop unit that was ranked #1 in the league in points allowed, yards allowed, and third down conversions and shredded it for 522 yards. The Chiefs had 182 rushing yards, their third highest total all season. Patrick Mahomes completed 75% of his throws for 8.6 yards per attempt against a secondary that yielded just 56% and 5.2 yards per pass (both best in the NFL).
Earlier in the season, Mahomes was struggling with the way defenses were designed to deal with him.They weren’t letting him go far down the field, and he was suffering interceptions. But in his last seven games, he has tossed 20 TD passes with only two INT’s. So he has adjusted just fine.
And take special note that the Chiefs averaged 6.7 yards per rushing attempt against Cincinnati in the first meeting. That doesn’t mean they’re a candidate to kill the clock; it means that they may have a pretty good shot at keeping the Bengals’ defense honest.
Los Angeles Rams Team Total
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 6:40 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Los Angeles Rams – Over 24.5 Points (-125) / Under 24.5 Points (-105)
The Play: RAMS UNDER 24.5 POINTS (-105)
Cooper Kupp has had 18 catches for 240 yards in the two meetings between these teams this season. And that is ammunition for you if you like the “over.” But while Matthew Stafford proved himself to be a clutch performer against Tampa Bay last week, the 49ers have burned him for four interceptions in those two meetings, including one that was taken back for a touchdown by Jimmie Ward (Stafford has thrown FOUR pick-sixes this season).
Cam Akers is again in the backfield for Los Angeles, but you know, the Rams have only had 116 total rushing yards in two games with the Niners. The fact that San Francisco can get some quarterback pressure with only four people rushing is a point in their favor. Gee, the Rams really seem paranoid about a bunch of 49er fans showing up at SoFi Stadium for this one, don’t they?
San Francisco 49ers Team Total
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 6:40 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: San Francisco 49ers – Over 21.5 Points (-110) / Under 21.5 Points (-120)
The Play: NINERS UNDER 21.5 POINTS (-120)
You obviously have to give San Francisco and its defense a lot of credit. But you need to take a close look at what has happened with Jimmy Garoppolo. He was already suffering from a fractured thumb, but then he sprained his shoulder late in the first half against Dallas. Since that moment, Jimmy G, who averaged 8.5 yards per attempt – second in the NFL – has completed 16 of 30 passes for 170 yards. That’s 5.7 yards an attempt, And he’s been intercepted twice.
And we’ve got news for you; all you had to do was watch last week’s game at Lambeau Field to see that there were a few lame throws he made that could have been picked off, but weren’t. In the last 80 minutes of football, the Niners have not scored an offensive touchdown. Sure, they have weaponry in the persons of George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel, but if the trigger man isn’t right, it can make everything moot.
Some people might be under the impression that San Francisco has been so successful against the Rams simply by dominating things on the ground. But that’s not really the case. Over the course of the last four meetings – all of which the 49ers have won – they have rushed for just 3.64 yards per attempt. IF Jimmy G can’t go down the field (and for what it’s worth, his average Intended Air Yards during his playoff career is just 7.5 – rather low), it could be a bigger struggle than usual moving the chains.
Check out our NFL conference championship game props picks next.
