What’s intriguing about this divisional round of play is that we have visiting teams who have had some success against their hosts, at least in the regular season.
The Buffalo Bills scored a pretty decisive victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, beating them by 18 points. The Los Angeles Rams beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the San Francisco 49ers took the Green Bay Packers to the wire before losing by two points.
Of course, the playoffs are a different animal altogether. Stakes are higher now. And a lot of things can change over a short period in the NFL season.
So did anything that happened before have an effect on what is about to happen? Find out below.
Bills at Chiefs Team Totals
Time: Sunday, January 23 @ 6:30 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Buffalo Bills – Over 27 Points (-120) / Under 27 Points (-110)
The Play: BILLS UNDER 27 POINTS (-110)
The Bills couldn’t have played any better than they did last weekend against New England. They showed the patriots who was boss. Josh Allen threw five TD passes and led his team to a touchdown drive on every possession except the one where he took a knee to end things. Maybe you get the opportunity to benefit from some “inflation” here.
We wouldn’t have been able to say that the first time these teams met. In that one, Allen had 315 yards through the air and three TD’s. The Bills had 436 total yards. And frankly, Patrick Mahomes hadn’t quite yet begun to accept the fact that he was better off throwing underneath than going deeper down the field against schemes that were now designed to thwart explosive plays.
Since that loss to Buffalo, the Chiefs have tightened up defensively, allowing an average of just 11.7 points over their last seven games at Arrowhead Stadium.
49ers at Packers Team Totals
Time: Saturday, January 22 @ 8:15 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: San Francisco 49ers – Over 21 Points (-110) / Under 21 Points (-120)
The Play: NINERS UNDER 21 POINTS (-110)
In this particular case, we’re doing some speculating, because there is much uncertainty about Jimmy Garoppolo’s physical condition coming into the festivities.
He went into the game against Dallas with a fractured right thumb, which was going to affect the way he threw as it was. And then right before halftime, he suffered what was termed a sprained right shoulder. After that particular injury, Jimmy G completed five of 11 passes for 39 yards. His five completions traveled a total of 22 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Of course, he also threw an interception that opened a door for the Cowboys that they couldn’t walk through.
A reporter asked him about the shoulder. He said, “The injury is what it is.”
Yes it is. And it will be freezing cold at Lambeau Field, which we don’t imagine helps with those kinds of injuries. And this is not the game where you hand your team over to a rookie like Trey Lance. So the Niners will likely have to rely on defense and ball control (with Deebo Samuel in his dual role) in order to make their way past the NFC’s #1 seed.
Bengals at Titans Team Totals
Time: Saturday, January 22 @ 4:30 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Tennessee Titans – Over 24.5 Points (-120) / Under 24.5 Points (-110)
The Play: TITANS UNDER 24.5 POINTS (-110)
Here’s another one that’s a little tricky. There is much excitement about the possible return of Derrick Henry to the Tennessee lineup. He has been out of action since the beginning of November but has been practicing.
When he went down with his fractured foot, Henry was the leading rusher in the NFL (937 yards). But he wasn’t blowing anyone’s doors off with his per-carry average (4.3). He was just a workhorse, averaging a little more than 27 carries per game.
One could not reasonably expect that he could carry that kind of workload at the moment. Now, it must be pointed out that the Titans have gotten production out of D’Onta Freeman (566 yards) and they have indeed exceeded 200 rushing yards against a couple of playoff teams (New England and Pittsburgh). But Henry is the guy who’s dynamic, and who wears down defenses. And you can’t ignore the fact that while Tennessee averaged 28.8 points over their first nine games, that average dropped to 20.5 over the next eight.
Rams at Buccaneers Team Totals
Time: Sunday, January 23 @ 3 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Over 26.5 Points (-110) / Under 26.5 Points (-120)
The Play: BUCS UNDER 26.5 POINTS (-120)
We acknowledge that the Buccaneers have scored 30+ points in every home game but one this season. But there is a lot of stuff going on here. For one thing, there’s drama surrounding the ongoing Antonio Brown garbage, and now Bruce Arians is getting fined by the NFL for helmet-slapping or whatever. Coordinators Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich are being mentioned prominently in connection with coaching openings. And now, on top of the existing injuries, there is the possible absence of Tristan Wirfs to worry about.
Wirfs, a Pro Bowl right tackle who is considered by some to be the best in the business already, has a high ankle sprain and may not be available. It has been reported that he is a “longshot” to play. His absence would hurt. As you know, Chris Godwin is out of action, and Leonard Fournette, though practicing, might be a game-time decision.
Tom Brady already throws the ball an NFL-high 66% of the time. The last two times he played against the Rams, he put the ball in the air a combined 103 times; the Bucs scored 24 points in each of those games, coming away with two losses.