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You notice that when we talk about this game, we are specifying that it is the Bengals AT the Rams. This is not the typical Rams home game (not that there IS a typical Rams home game yet), because of the Super Bowl ticket allotment. Still, it is a team visiting its opponent’s home stadium.
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Cincinnati Bengals Team Total Pick for Super Bowl
Time: Sunday, February 13 @ 6:30 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Bengals – Over 21.5 Points (-130) / Under 21.5 Points (+100)
The Play: BENGALS UNDER 21.5 POINTS (+100)
Okay, let’s talk about Zac Taylor’s team as a road warrior.
The Bengals were not only 8-2 ATS in their ten road games, hey have also played eight road games out of ten under the total.
And this speaks to a couple of different things. The defensive angle we’re going to talk about in a moment. But don’t underestimate how deliberate this team can be on offense.
If you take a look at the 32 NFL teams, and the “pace” at which they play at, Cincinnati is one of the “slowest” teams out there – across the board, in all categories.
They are 30th in seconds elapsed between plays, which is third slowest. Whether they have the lead or trail in the game; whether it is first half or second half, they are down near the bottom in terms of the time they take off the clock. So that’s a factor.
And while acknowledging that the Bengals are fully capable of putting decent numbers on the board, we also have to understand that the Rams’ defense is going to play a role in this.
It would appear that unless Joe Burrow gets rid of the ball very quickly, it is going to be a headache to deal with the Rams’ pass rush, which may not have as high a sack percentage as it did last season (when it was spearheaded by coordinator Brandon Staley) but has been pretty good nonetheless.
How can you not respect Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd) coming at you? It’s going to be happening, at least to a degree, because the Bengals’ offensive line has allowed 26% of pressures to result in sacks, as per Pro Football Focus.
And there is the looming presence of Jalen Ramsey, who has offered to cover Ja’Marr Chase like a blanket. So it wouldn’t be surprising if Burrow had to rely on short passes, with his receivers doing much of the work. He was third in the league when it came to yard after the catch on a per-completion basis.
Either way, Cincinnati is liable to be the team forced to take its time getting down the field. And we must admit that the even-money price factors into this.
Los Angeles Rams Team Total Pick for Super Bowl
Team Totals Odds: Rams – Over 27 Points (-130) / Under 27 Points (+100)
The Play: RAMS UNDER 27 POINTS (+100)
First, let’s establish that the Cincinnati defense has been maligned somewhat by the metrics people. And it is true that they don’t throw a lot of glittering statistics at you.
But they have somehow managed to get the job done. They ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per drive allowed (seventh in points allowed). And they held a Tennessee team with Derrick Henry to 16 points and then flummoxed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the second half of the AFC title game.
So while they don’t see to have “elite” personnel, they need to be respected.
It is not likely that they are going to put the same kind of pressure on Matthew Stafford that the Rams will put on Burrow. The Bengals don’t like to blitz to begin with, and that probably wouldn’t do them a whole lot of good here, since Stafford put together the best QB rating (as far as ESPN’s measurement of that is concerned) in the league. He has been intercepted 17 times, but only one of those came against a blitz.
So Cincinnati will most likely drop a lot of people into coverage and try to force Stafford into some bad throws. At the very least, we are looking at a Los Angeles offense that may have to do more work than usual to move the chains. There are explosive plays to be had here – of course, there is Odell Beckham, as well as Van Jefferson (who led the team at 16 yards per catch). And then there is Cooper Kupp, who makes plays everywhere.
And yes, this may have the potential to overwhelm Cincinnati, because after all, you can’t cover a receiver forever. But we should expect that the Bengals will not design something to play into the Rams’ strengths, and we haven’t seen a lot of evidence that the Rams can come up with a ground game that is successful enough to lead to some believable play-action.
As we talked earlier in the piece about Cincinnati’s road prowess, we didn’t mention that aside from an unexplainable collapse against the Jets, they allowed more than 21 points only once as the visitor, and that was against Kansas City two weeks ago.
And of course, we have to regard the price on this prop as a factor.
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