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If you were looking around for a guy to score a touchdown for the San Francisco 49ers last week – well, at least someone from the offensive unit – you would have come up empty, regardless of who it was.
Do you think that might happen two weeks in a row? This week the Niners are facing they have beaten six times in a row, the Los Angeles Rams. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to have an offensive bonanza.
The injuries that have been bothering Jimmy Garoppolo (and take our word for it, they’ve been bothering him) have to be a factor.
So we have to come up with someone from the 49ers’ side, as well as the other three teams that are involved in Sunday’s action.
Deebo Samuel Props Picks
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 6:40 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: -110 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
We were exploring other options here, like Elijah Mitchell. And we did that because we don’t really trust the aerial attack too much with those injuries (thumb, shoulder) on the part of Jimmy G. But at least we know they will grind as much as possible in the ground game.
Samuel is obviously a terrific player, and one of the reasons he led the league in yards per catch is that he can run with the ball after that reception is made. But he also represents the opportunity to get the best of both worlds.
To offer some perspective, Mitchell, whose price in this prop is +120 at the source we went to, scored six TD’s, five on the ground, this season. Samuel has been a really dangerous guy carrying the ball on a rushing play. He’s got 59 carries and eight touchdowns that way.
He also has six touchdowns in receptions, making this a total of 14 TD’s in what has been 90 fewer touches than Mitchell.
Cooper Kupp Props Picks
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 6:40 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: -150 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
There are only four rushing touchdowns that have come from the eligible players on the Rams’ roster this season. So we aren’t looking in that direction.
As much as we’d like to be able to recommend someone like Van Jefferson or Odell Beckham, but we know that when the Rams get anywhere near the goal line, Kupp is going to be his first, second and third choice.
In two meetings against the Niners this season, Kupp was targeted 20 times and caught 18 passes for 240 yards. He didn’t score a TD the first time against San Francisco, but that has been the exception rather than the rule. Kupp has played 19 games, and in only six of those did he not catch a touchdown pass. He has scored in seven of the last eight games.
Tyler Boyd Props Picks
Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 3:05 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: +260 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
Ja’Marr Chase destroyed the Chiefs when these clubs met, with 266 yards in receptions and three touchdowns. He’s even money here, and wouldn’t be a bad play, necessarily. But one would have to believe that Kansas City will design a scheme to prevent him from dominating.
And there will be a cost associated with that. Someone will have more opportunities to get open. And maybe that will be someone like Boyd, who has caught a TD pass in four of his last five games. And it doesn’t hurt him that Joe Burrow is not only accurate (his connection rate with Boyd is 71.3%) and distributes the ball rather liberally in red zone situations.
Darrel Williams Props Picks
Time: Sunday, January 30 @ 3:05 PM ET
TD Scoring Odds: +500 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
This is speculative, because Williams is questionable with a toe injury, and because Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are available. But you don’t want to ignore the fact that Williams has scored eight touchdowns this year, including six on the ground, which is more than any other KC running back.
By and large, he has been the most dependable member of the backfield when it comes to catching passes, as he’s averaged 9.6 yards on 47 receptions. His catch rate with Patrick Mahomes is a rather insane 82.5%. So if he plays, this number might wind up working.
