In this piece, we are going to do something different, in the sense that we’re going to add a few twists.
It’s the Super Bowl, after all.
So it won’t just be individual players and it won’t just be an “anytime” thing. The Super Bowl is traditionally filled with so many props that we can add a couple; e.g., the “first” to score a touchdown, or to score multiple touchdowns.
But one thing is the same – there is one guy we simply can’t leave out.
Find out who we’re picking to win Super Bowl 56.
Cooper Kupp Super Bowl Touchdown Props
TD Scoring Odds: +200 to score TWO or more “Anytime” Touchdowns
Kupp is the guy who Matthew Stafford is going to be able to find all over the field. And whby would it be any different than it was during the regular season?
Kupp had one of the greatest performances of any wide receiver ever. If you look at this thing all told, in 20 games he’s caught 170 passes for 2333 yards and 20 touchdowns. And he had better than a 76% catch rate on his connections with Stafford.
Now let’s factor a few other things into the mix. The Bengals, we think, are going to concentrate some of their coverage on keeping the big plays to a minimum. And if they put enough attention onto Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson, that leaves more for Kupp, who is slippery enough to get open in just about any situation, and certainly one in whic Stafford has extra time because of a lack of pass rush.
And just in case you were wondering about the Bengals’ corners, Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton and Eli Apple are 15th, 19th and 73rd, respectively, in the position grades, according to Pro Football Focus, which is a much-referenced source on this kind of thing.
If things set up to where Kupp is going to be too much of a headache for the Bengals to solve, Stafford wil unquestionably go to him again and again, and may be able to cash for us with TWO touchdowns.
Odell Beckham Jr. Super Bowl Touchdown Props
TD Scoring Odds: +140 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
Will OBJ win the 2022 NFL Super Bowl MVP award?
Yeah, there’s no surprise here. But the reason we’re going in this direction is that Cincinnati’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) when covering #2 receivers is just 27th in the league. We get that from the capable analytics people at Football Outsiders.
In this case we would assume the #2 receiver for the Rams is Beckham, and as far as #2 receivers go, he’s about as good as it gets, especially now that he is fully integrated into the offense.
Beckham’s TD numbers with the Rams haven’t been staggering, with six in 11 games, but he has been sought out more and more, with 15 catches for 182 yards in these last two games against the Bucs and Niners.
Samaje Perine Super Bowl Touchdown Props
TD Scoring Odds: +750 to score “Anytime” Touchdown
If you have followed college football very closely, you remember that Perine, when he was a freshman at Oklahoma, set a record for most rushing yards in a game that still stands – 427 yards against Kansas. And with 1713 yards in that year (2014), he looked like the next big thing until his production declined a bit.
Well, he’s found a bit of a niche with the Bengals as relief for fellow Sooner Joe Mixon (yes, his teammate in college) with the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. It was his 41-yard catch-and-run that started Cincy on its comeback trail against the Chiefs two weeks ago. And with Joe Burrow likely pressed for time, the screen game may become a prominent part of the attack.
C.J. Uzomah Super Bowl Touchdown Props
TD Scoring Odds: +1800 to score FIRST Touchdown
Ok, notice that it’s a little different prop here (FIRST TD). Uzomah comes in here as a bit of an injury question, as he suffered a sprained MCL against Kansas City. But all indications are that he is going to play.
Remembering that our rationale is that the Rams will do what they can to take Joe Burrow’s attention away from game-breaker Ja’Marr Chase, and that may include having Jalen Ramsay shadowing him. So the Cincy QB will look for other outlets.
Uzomah caught 49 passes for 493 yards and five touchdowns during regular season play. And he had excllent games against the Raiders and Titans in the playoffs, with 13 catches in 14 targets for 135 yards. Yes, he’s reliable. And the Rams, while not catastrophic against opposing tight ends, don’t necessarily shut them down either.
Bengals DST Super Bowl Touchdown Props
TD Scoring Odds: +3300 to score LAST Touchdown
Here’s our pure longshot. But let’s put it this way – we have a QB (Stafford) who has thrown 18 interceptions, four of which have been taken back for touchdowns.
If the Rams are trailing late, passing plays may become more desperate. And desperate quarterbacks tend to get reckless, thus increasing the chances of an interception.
Hey, why the hell not?
Get our Super Bowl LVI team totals predictions next.