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Finally, we’re here. Let’s try to make some money right out of the chute, shall we?
This week’s parlay will consist of action against the spread, although we may certainly mix things up with totals and moneylines as the weeks move forward.
Five-Team NFL Week 1 Parlay Predictions
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers Preview
Time: Sunday, September 12th at 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Carolina Panthers -5 (-115) vs. New York Jets +5 (-105)
The Play: PANTHERS -5 (-115)
Well, let’s put it this way – if Sam Darnold can’t get motivated for a game like this, when WILL he get motivated? Cast aside by the Jets in favor of a newer quarterback “model,” Darnold looks to win this duel with the guy who was taken second overall in the draft, Zac Wilson.
We’re putting at least a little bank on the idea that some of the Joe Brady “magic” can rub off on Darnold; after all, the Panthers’ offensive coordinator must have had a lot of faith that he could get the job done. And if there was one man Darnold had some success hooking up with in his previous location, it was Robby Anderson, who’s in a Panther uniform.
Robert Saleh did a lot of good with the San Francisco defense as its coordinator, but he’ll have an uphill climb with the Jets, who already lost Carl Lawson, a big free agent signing, for the season. And even with some off-season additions to the offense, we’re not convinced this won’t be a bumpy ride for Wilson.
The Jets’ last win in the month of September was in 2018, when Darnold, in his NFL debut, helped them roll over Detroit. The drought continues here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Preview
Time: Sunday, September 12th at 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-120) vs. Houston Texans +2.5 (+100)
The Play: TEXANS +2.5 (+100)
We understand the perception: that the Texans, with a roster that is stripped down and the whole situation involving Deshaun Watson, might have a hard time winning one or two games this season. And maybe that is true.
Another perception is that with glamour boy Trevor Lawrence and collegiate legend Urban Meyer at the helm, the Jags are poised to make noise in the AFC South. Eventually, maybe.
But the fact is, you are being asked to lay points on the road with a team that (a) has a current streak of fifteen consecutive losses, (b) has a quarterback starting his first game in the National Football League, and (c) a head coach who is a complete newbie to the league.
In addition, Lawrence’s Clemson teammate Travis Etienne, who was supposed to add a spark to the Jags’ offense, is out for the year after a foot injury.
Houston may destruct, but it won’t be because they have a guy who doesn’t know his way around the league, as head coach David Culley (65 years old) is an NFL “lifer.”
Lots of fundamentals to work on in Jacksonville; the Jaguars led the league in penalty yards per game last year, and the two seasons before that (for what it’s worth, the Texans were second-best in that department last season).
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions Preview
Time: Sunday, September 12th at 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-105) vs. Detroit Lions +7.5 (-115)
The Play: 49ERS -7.5 (-105)
Frankly, we were a little surprised at the Lions’ head coaching choice, as Dan Campbell didn’t show up as one of those “hot” candidates. He was an interim guy at Miami in 2015, taking over for Joe Philbin, and he “cracked the whip” and got a couple of big efforts from the Dolphins before the novelty of that wore off.
Jared Goff has always been more effective when he can operate from play action, but the Detroit running game may again turn out to be a mirage. De’Andre Swift doesn’t appear to be close to 100%, and Goff could find himself a stationary target out there.
Last season the Niners did the best they could with a roster that was largely injured, and we already know what they can do when they’re healthy. They’re pretty close to that now, and naturally Nick Bosa’s return is a key. Trey Sermon joins a running back-by-committee that could exploit a Detroit front that allowed 135 rush yards per game last season.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans Preview
Time: Sunday, September 12th at 1 PM ET
ATS Odds: Tennessee Titans -3 (-105) vs. Arizona Cardinals +3 (-115)
The Play: ARIZONA +3 (-115)
Sure, the Titans are known for their run game (second in the league last year and, of course, featuring Derrick Henry). Everyone perceives the Cards as that “Air Raid” team, but the truth is that they were sixth in the NFL in rushing yards in 2020. James Conner comes in to take Kenyan Drake, but most significantly, they’ve got AJ Green joining DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver, with Rondale Moore coming out of Purdue in the second round.
Tennessee lost Corey Davis and Adam Humphries, but they brought Julio Jones on board, and with new offensive coordinator Todd Downing – promoted from within to replace Arthur Smith – they’ll have continuity in the offense.
We expect Arizona to get some pressure on Ryan Tennehil (JJ Watt now in fold, Chandler Jones healthy after injury). The Titans were a sharp 74% TD’s inside the red zone last year, but ‘Zona was fourth best in the league defending inside the 20.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Preview
Time: Sunday, September 12th at 4:25 PM ET
ATS Odds: New England Patriots -3 (-105) vs.Miami Dolphina +3 (-115)
The Play: PATRIOTS -3 (-105)
Tua Tagovailoa might just be the last piece in the puzzle to make the Dolphins a serious playoff contender. And they’ll do a lot of two-tight end sets for him this season. But you’ve got to wonder whether he’ll really have enough weaponry at his disposal, the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle notwithstanding.
And Miami has lost some defensive leadership (Kyle Van Noy, Carl Lawson). Don’t underestimate that. Meanwhile, I have faith in the other ‘Bama quarterback, Mac Jones, and if Bill Belichick feels he is “NFL ready,” then so do I. And I bet the Pats, with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, can get the two-TE thing going better than the Fish. With a number of defenders on hand who weren’t there last season, I won’t be shocked if the Patriots contend.
