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The NFL is wild and wonky, but we love it and wouldn’t have it any other way. We hate to say the Baltimore Ravens are a fraud, but you know what… they’re a fraud. Let’s be honest. We are not going to say the Cowboys are a fraud just yet, but they had better win big against the Falcons or we will make that call.
The Broncos land themselves back in the hunt in the AFC West, the Bills put up 6 lousy points against Jacksonville, and the Rams took a dump on our birthday cake, at home, on Monday night! It just keeps coming and every week brings some new surprises. Find a great offshore bookie so that you can get the best lines and odds, and get paid faster without being charged a commission.
Falcons (4-4, 4-4-0 ATS) @ Cowboys (6-2, 7-1-0 ATS)
Spread: Falcons +9, ML +330/-430, O/U 54.5
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
1:00 ET FOX
Vegas has a lot of confidence in a team they were willing to lay -10.5 on last week, and then lost to said team (the Broncos) outright, at home, 16-30, after the Broncos traded away their best, and franchise player! Now, they want us to have the same confidence this week that they asked us to have against the Broncos. Denver was 4-4 last week going into Dallas, and here come the Falcons, 4-4, going into Dallas. Did the Cowboys fix their problem, or is the team flawed? Elliott is questionable, Clement is questionable, Gregory and Lawrence are questionable for the defense, and smith is questionable on the offensive line. The Cowboys will right the ship and play better. Elliott will play and he makes the difference but the Cowboys don’t cover 9.
Picks: Falcons +9, Over 54.5
Saints (5-3, 4-4-0 ATS) @ Titans (7-2, 7-2-0 ATS)
Spread: Saints +3, ML +130/-150, O/U 44
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
1:00 ET CBS
The Titans keep on winning games, and every time we doubt them, they make us look like idiots! Do the Saints have some kind of something special to march into Nashville with and upset the Titans in their backyard? The Saints have had their moments this year when they looked like Super Bowl contenders, then they had their moments when they looked like the Jets could beat them. They come in scoring 25.1 ppg, to the Titans 28.3 per game, however, they allow just 19.4 ppg to the Titans 23.4 ppg. The Titans are down an NFL leading rusher in Henry, but the Saints are down a quarterback, and we don’t believe in Trevor Seimian. Tannehill shines in this game. Look for a BIG win.
Picks: Titans -3 Over 44
Jaguars (2-6, 3-5-0 ATS) @ Colts (4-5, 6-3-0 ATS)
Spread: Jaguars +10.5, ML +360/-475 O/U 47.5
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
1:00 ET CBS
This Jaguars team is not the same Jaguars we saw early on. Give Urban Meyer time, he will make this team better. We do realize the Jaguars are 2-6, we also realize the Colts allowed 30 stinking points to be scored on them at home, and it wasn’t the Ram, Cowboys, Chiefs, or Buccaneers that did the scoring, it was the stinking Jets. YES, we know that’s the second time we have used “stinking” but listen, we are talking about the Jets and a Colts defense that allowed 30 points. The Jaguars put the hammer down on the Bills last week to the tune of allowing just 6 points. That was a smackdown and a very big deal against a team that score 29.4 ppg. We think the Jaguars give Indy trouble, and we can’t back the Colts as a 10.5-point favorite. We would back a TD, -7 but not 11.
Picks: Jaguars +10.5, Over 47.5
Browns (5-4, 5-4-0 ATS) @ Patriots (5-4, 5-4-0 ATS)
Spread: Browns +2.5, ML +115/-135, O/U 45
Gillette Stadium
1:00 ET CBS
We have to give it up to both the Browns and Patriots for fighting their way through the muck and figuring out a way to be 5-4. An ugly number for the Patriots is their 1-4 record at home, but what’s weird about this team was the win against the Chargers in LA. They can’t win in their backyard, but they can get on a plane and fly 3,000 miles and win in LA. The Browns are coming off a huge confidence builder against the Bengals last week after a 41 -16 drilling over one of their biggest rivals. Neither team is going deep in the playoffs if they even make the playoffs, however, this game will be a dandy and will go to the wire. Without Chubb, we have to like the Patriots to pick up their second win of the year at Foxboro.
Picks: Patriots -2.5, Over 45
Bills (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) @ Jets (2-6, 2-6-0 ATS)
Spread: Bills -12, O/U 47.5
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
1:00 ET CBS
The Bills started this season with a disappointing loss to the Steelers. 16-21, then rattled off the next four straight against the Dolphins 35-0, Washington 43-21, Houston 40-0, Kansas City 38-20, a loss to Tennessee 31-34, a second win against Miami, 26-11, and last week’s upset loss to the Jaguars 6-9. We said it above, give Urban Meyer time and the Jaguars will be a good football team. The Jags are getting better and it’s not a huge surprise they beat Buffalo or any team in the NFL. The Bills are the better team than the Jets, however, the Jets have found their offense and it’s much improved. Our problem is defense. The jets allow 31.4 rotten points to be scored on them! It’s too big of a number to look the other way. The Jets scored 20 in the second half against the Colts and still lost by 15.
Picks: Bills -12.5, Over 47.5
Lions (0-8, 4-4-0 ATS) @ Steelers (5-3, 3-5-0 ATS)
Spread: Lions +8, ML +300/-380, O/U 42.5
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
1:00 ET FOX
The Lions are a terrible football team and just about the time we started to have a little hope in them, they lost to Philly 6-44, at home! That was not just a loss, it was an ugly loss in every aspect of a loss. The Lions have checked out on this season and they do not believe they can win, they don’t even believe they can compete, forget about winning. It was painfully obvious on the sidelines that Detroit didn’t care when they were laughing, joking, and then at the end of the game, they were exchanging jerseys with the Eagles. This team could care less about winning and it shows. The Steelers have won four straight and they will smack the Lions.
Picks: Steelers -8, Over 42.5
Buccaneers (6-2, 3-5-0 ATS) @ Washington (2-6, 1-7-0 ATS)
Spread: Buccaneers -9.5, ML -450/+350 O/U 51
FedEx Field, Landover, MD
1:00 ET CBS
The Buccaneers outscore Washington by 13 points, they allow 22.9 points per game to Washington’s 28.4 per game, for a difference of 5.5 per game. Considering the difference between the scoring and points allowed margins – 18.5, and giving Washington the benefit of the doubt at home with the -3for a difference of 15.5, we MUST like -9.5. Over the last five games, the schedule for Washington has not been easy, and it would have been tough for any team. Washington lost last week to Denver, Green Bay, KC, NO, and the week before, picked up a win against Atlanta. The Buccaneers lost on the 31 st to the Saints, we know the Bucs are great but not perfect. Brady is too much a student of the game; he will rebound from last week.
Picks: Buccaneers -9.5, Under 51
Panthers (4-5, 4-5-0 ATS) @ Cardinals (8-1, 7-2-0 ATS)
Spread: Panthers +10.5, ML +400/-550, O/U 44
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
4:05 ET FOX
The Panthers are a zoo, a literal zoo and here they go trying to get Cam back. What a nightmare. They need to call Ron Rivera and apologize. Be all that as it may, do they stand a chance against the Cardinals? NO, they will get their hind ends kicked all the way back to North Carolina. Forget about the offense, let’s talk about the best thing that ever happened to Vance Joseph – getting fired by John Elway. Elway bowed to the fans in Denver and fired Joseph, then hired Vic Fangio – that’s another zoo and another story for a different day! Vance has his Cardinal defense ramped up and allowing 17.2 ppg. The Panthers don’t have enough in the desert.
Picks: Cardinals -10.5, Under 44
Vikings (3-5, 4-4-0 ATS) @ Chargers (5-3, 5-3-0 ATS)
Spread: Vikings +3, ML +145/-170, O/U 53.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
4:05 ET FOX
The Chargers have a few on the injured list with Bosa being questionable, however, the Vikings have Willekes, Barr, and Pierce, all out for this game, with Breeland and Johnson being listed as questionable. The Vikings are struggling to score more points than they allow with 24.3 for and 23.9 against. This team isn’t the Lions, but if they were to play the Dolphins tomorrow, we would probably go with the Dolphins. The numbers are close across the board but we hate the fact the Chargers are allowing 161.6 rushing yards per game. The Vikings are rushing for 124.9 ppg. Having said that, in LA, at home, we like the Chargers to show up and play enough defense to cover 3 points.
Picks: Chargers -3, Over 53.5
Eagles (3-6, 4-5-0 ATS) @ Broncos (5-4, 5-4-0 ATS)
Spread: Eagles +2.5, ML +120/-140, O/U 45.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
4:25 ET CBS
Sometimes it takes a village, and with Denver, they had a village but the chief was bigger than all of them combined. When the chief left the village and went on his way to the Rams, the village stepped up and got it done, as a team. They found a way to play the kind of defense that Vic Fangio has built. We have to like the momentum the Broncos come in with against the Eagles. The Broncos are allowing just 17 points per game and we think that number will be what’s important, not the offense. Denver must get back to its defensive prowess, they did against the Cowboys.
Picks: Broncos -2.5, Under 45.5
Seahawks (3-5, 5-3-0 ATS) @ Packers (7-2, 8-1-0 ATS)
Spread: Seahawks +3.5, ML +150/-175, O/U 49
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
4:25 ET CBS
If the Seahawks are going to win this game it will be the first time doing so since 1999 when Russell Wilson was 10 years old. Speaking of Wilson, he is not ruled out of this game and has been throwing in practice. On the other side, Aaron Rodgers has not been practicing as he sits out a COVID protocol, however, he will be game eligible on Saturday, And the decision to play Rodgers will be close to game-time. If Wilson starts, will he be ready, if Rodgers starts will he be rusty? At the end of the day, back in Green Bay, we have to like the Packers chances.
Picks: Packers -3.5, Under 49
Chiefs (5-4, 2-7-0 ATS) @ Raiders (5-3, 4-4-0 ATS)
Spread: Chiefs -2.5, ML -140/+120, O/U 52
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
8:20 ET NBC
Considering the off-field problems the Raiders have had this season, 5-3 is not bad. The Chiefs are 5-4. The Raiders come off the road after a bummy loss to the Giants, 16-35. The amazing thing about that game was total yards, the Raiders had 403, to the Giants 247. The problem was turnovers. The Raiders outdueled the Giants in the first down dept. by the tune of 24-16, and the time of possession was close to 50/50. Turnovers and fatigue lost this game for the Raiders. Carr will hold his own against any QB in the NFL and he has weapons. Of course, those weapons don’t include Hill with 772 receiving yards for the Chiefs. This game comes down to the run, who does it better? We think the Raiders will spread the Chiefs defense thin running the score over the total and allowing the Raiders to stay close.
Picks: Raiders +2.5, Over 52
This week’s NFL action is going to be wild; it’s going to be fun, and there will be a surprise or two. There is no reason to not win money on a handful or more games. If you are serious about raking in some significant winnings then find a bookmaker that has a stellar reputation for fast payouts and one that offers sharp lines and odds. Have a second or third bookie in your back pocket, it’s going to come in handy one day. Have fun this week and good luck.
