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Have you ever known someone who could walk into a kitchen, with almost nothing in the refrigerator or pantry, and somehow make a sumptuous meal out of whatever was available?
Colin Firth’s character tried to do that in the movie “Bridget Jones’ Diary” (do you remember that? Are you old enough?). But Tom Brady has had considerably more success doing that kind of thing.
There’s a saying about some of the great quarterbacks – that they can “make” their receivers. But when Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, there was a pretty good receiver corps already in place, and more were added.
Injuries have hit that receiver group, and we’ll see how he continues to adapt to it this week.
Buccaneers at WFT Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Tampa Bay Bucs – Over 30.5 Points (-120) / Under 30.5 Points (-110)
The Play: BUCS OVER 30.5 POINTS (-120)
You’ve got to respect Brady’s ability to turn water into wine. He had to do that for a couple of seasons in New England. And he’s not exactly dealing with rags here; sure, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski probably won’t play, and Chris Godwin (140 yards on eight catches vs. Saints) is iffy. But Brady has always been able to find outlets. And there’s been a bye week to figure everything out.
The key here is that Washington is not offering nearly as much resistance as it did last season, when the WFT defense tied for second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Now they’re 25th, and they have allowed more passing yards on a per-game basis than anyone.
We’ll call “Bingo!” there,as Brady, at age 44, leads the league in passing yards and TD passes. And who knows; maybe a couple of new weapons in the fold. Cyril Grayson, a world-class sprinter who didn’t even play football at LSU, hauled in a 50-yard TD pass against New Orleans, and Breshad Perriman was just signed from the practice squad.
Lions at Steelers Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 26.5 Points (-115) / Under 26.5 Points (-115)
The Play: STEELERS OVER 26.5 POINTS (-115)
When we write about this, we are assuming that Ben Roethlisberger will be relatively good to go with his shoulder and pectoral ailments. And really, the Pittsburgh defense failed them when allowing rookie QB Justin Fields to launch a furious comeback in the Monday night game.
In this particular instance, we don’t disqualify that the Steelers can travel the ground route, as Detroit let Philadelphia beat it up pretty good before the bye week with 236 rushing yards.
This is one of those instances where a defense is so bad that it makes the opposing offense look that much better. The Lions are dead last in the NFL in yards AND points allowed per drive, taking over that “distinction” from Kansas City. They allow 8.8 yards per pass attempt, which means Big Ben can go that avenue if he wants. And they have also permitted teams to score TD’s on 83.3% of red zone trips, which is by far the worst figure in the NFL. And that makes a difference for us here.
Panthers at Cardinals Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 4:05 PM ET
Team Total Odds: Carolina Panthers – Over 16.5 Points (-115) / Under 16.5 Points (-115)
The Play: PANTHERS UNDER 16.5 POINTS (-115)
No, Carolina’s defensive stats are not bad. And that is what has kept them breathing, though barely. The offense has suffered – by now you’re well aware of that. They are 31st in the league in yards gained per drive. And while Sam Darnold has been something of a disaster of late, which makes his shoulder injury (which put him on IR) look like a blessing in disguise, we’re not sure his replacement, XFL star PJ Walker, is much of an improvement. He’s thrown 71 passes thus far in the NFL, and he has been intercepted five times, with seven sacks. Cam Newton, just signed, isn’t playing a role just yet.
Defense has been a big part of the Arizona story; they are second in the league in points allowed per opponent’s drive. Sure, teams have been able to run on them (allowing 4.8 ypc), but they shut off people in the air game (only 6.1 yards per attempt). They’ll get pressure on Walker too.
Everyone hailed the return of Christian McCaffrey to the lineup. And he had 106 combined rushing-receiving yards last week. But the Panthers scored six points.McCaffrey is averaging only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. And Arizona runs the ball 48.4% of the time, which could produce long drives and reduce the number of possessions.
Falcons at Cowboys Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Dallas Cowboys – Over 31 Points (-120) / Under 31 Points (-110)
The Play: COWBOYS OVER 31 POINTS (-120)
Last week the Cowboys were held to 290 yards by Denver and had exactly zero points until there were four minutes and eight seconds left in the game. Suffice it to say that if someone like that happens for a second straight time in a home game, heads are going to roll.
For a team that has put together 40 yards per drive, that’s not likely to happen this week. Against the Broncos, Tony Pollard had only five touches, and you know that Jerry Jones sent word from the owner’s box (or the office aty The Star, or whatever) to correct that. Don’t forget Zeke as well. Atlanta has “stuffed” (no gain or a loss) only 13% of its opponents’ rushing attempts. And Dak Prescott could be less impeded than usual as the Falcons have the worst sack rate in the NFL.
Chiefs at Raiders Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 14 – 8:20 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Kansas City Chiefs – Over 27.5 Points (-115) / Under 27.5 Points (-115)
The Play: CHIEFS UNDER 27.5 POINTS (-115)
The Chiefs got lucky last week in drawing a novice quarterback (Jordan Love), and that explains what they did on defense. But was there any excuse for the offense? Patrick Mahomes had only 166 yards through the air, as KC had only one TD and 14 first downs. And so I guess you could say that the cat’s out of the bag on how to defend him – take away those big plays.
If you notice, we reference some of the analytics the people at Football Outsiders assemble, and one of them is drive stats. And while we acknowledge that the Chiefs are still leading the NFL in yards per drive, they are only seventh in points per drive. So there’s a disconnect in terms of converting.
The Raiders’ defense has actually been a pleasant surprise for them. Even in last week’s awful loss in the Meadowlands, they held the Giants to 245 yards.
